A BugBear of an Anticyclone (4-9th Aug)

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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A BugBear of an Anticyclone (4-9th Aug)

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Looks like a "Bug-Bear" of an anticyclone is going to develop over the east coast of Australia from the 4th August until well until next week.
...sorry, I haven't been on line late on the forum except for the occasional check-up as my father has been very ill...
...anyway...
looks like more settled weather is likely to continue to into August, sadly :(

JohnGaul
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Flutterbye
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Re: A BugBear of an Anticyclone

Unread post by Flutterbye »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Looks like a "Bug-Bear" of an anticyclone is going to develop over the east coast of Australia from the 4th August until well until next week.
...sorry, I haven't been on line late on the forum except for the occasional check-up as my father has been very ill...
...anyway...
looks like more settled weather is likely to continue to into August, sadly :(

JohnGaul
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All my spring bulbs are flowering now, the ones that started in May are still going - I've never struck this in the three years that I've been in this property. :o

Hope your Dad will be ok.
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Unread post by Weathermad »

Sorry to hear about your Dad, John

Take Care

Richard
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Willoughby
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Unread post by Willoughby »

This system could be potentially dangerous.. gradients look extremely tight for a SSE change in the Cook Strait.
Model output track seems to be coming into line for a strong concensus..
I'd be going what ECMWF is suggesting.. kinda between GFS and NGP in it's path.. low coming through the BoP and sweeping around 60km SE of NZWN. UKMO would be one to watch.. looks interesting there.

Heh, Brian looks like you're right about your birthday being the stormiest time of year ;) :D

Auckland, high cloud increasing on Saturday.. with late overnight showers. Southeasterlies picking up, rising to gale during the morning with heavy rain increasing along a warm front. Dewpoints look as they will creep up a bit during Sunday night.. which should enhance convective activity over the BoP/Hauraki Gulf. Might be a light NW change? Monday looks good for southwesterlies rising to gale force. With fresh flow tending S by Tues then?

As said, the Cooks will be HIGH :!: GFS has progged 37knots average for NZWN.. and that is higher in reality there.

Looks then likely the heaviest rain of this bugbear will head up through Manawatu/Wairarapa/East Wellington.. but places like Tauranga, C'del, Gisborne could really cop it depending on track.

NW jet to 140 knots, 200km NE of Whangarei during Sunday.. increasing to 190 knots on it's departure/further cyclogenesis 900km ENE of East Cape late Monday.

Bring it on, yes? :P
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Unread post by C-Nimbus »

jeebus!
i have just seen the metwuw predictions for mondee :shock:

yes i wouldn't want to be crossing the cook straight on that day.

is this considered a sub tropical low or do i have the wrong end of the stick?
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Yes.. and it's feeding a heck of a lot of moisture right up from the Solomons (Which is right on the ITCZ) ;)

I wonder if the MS forecast here of 'Fine weather. Light winds.' will eventuate. lol
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Unread post by spwill »

I haven't been on line late on the forum except for the occasional check-up as my father has been very ill...
Hope your father is well soon John.
Looks then likely the heaviest rain of this bugbear will head up through Manawatu/Wairarapa/East Wellington.. but places like Tauranga, C'del, Gisborne could really cop it depending on track.
The track of this low still looks very uncertain, ECMWF charts this morn look very different to last night.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Thanks you guys about my father. He is much better now, than goodness.

Regarding this "Bug-Bear" of an anticyclone, I didn't expect this current low moving over the North Island to give a lot of rain as what it has done up north. :oops:
I expected the ridge or high pressure to remain supreme over us through-out the period. #-o
We need the rain anyway. I planted 43 trees out at our block at West Melton this WE. A good soaking will add to the initial growth of the trees. :mrgreen:


JohnGaul
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