Looks like a "Bug-Bear" of an anticyclone is going to develop over the east coast of Australia from the 4th August until well until next week.
...sorry, I haven't been on line late on the forum except for the occasional check-up as my father has been very ill...
...anyway...
looks like more settled weather is likely to continue to into August, sadly
JohnGaul
NZTS
A BugBear of an Anticyclone (4-9th Aug)
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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Re: A BugBear of an Anticyclone
All my spring bulbs are flowering now, the ones that started in May are still going - I've never struck this in the three years that I've been in this property.NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Looks like a "Bug-Bear" of an anticyclone is going to develop over the east coast of Australia from the 4th August until well until next week.
...sorry, I haven't been on line late on the forum except for the occasional check-up as my father has been very ill...
...anyway...
looks like more settled weather is likely to continue to into August, sadly
JohnGaul
NZTS
Hope your Dad will be ok.
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- Willoughby
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This system could be potentially dangerous.. gradients look extremely tight for a SSE change in the Cook Strait.
Model output track seems to be coming into line for a strong concensus..
I'd be going what ECMWF is suggesting.. kinda between GFS and NGP in it's path.. low coming through the BoP and sweeping around 60km SE of NZWN. UKMO would be one to watch.. looks interesting there.
Heh, Brian looks like you're right about your birthday being the stormiest time of year
Auckland, high cloud increasing on Saturday.. with late overnight showers. Southeasterlies picking up, rising to gale during the morning with heavy rain increasing along a warm front. Dewpoints look as they will creep up a bit during Sunday night.. which should enhance convective activity over the BoP/Hauraki Gulf. Might be a light NW change? Monday looks good for southwesterlies rising to gale force. With fresh flow tending S by Tues then?
As said, the Cooks will be HIGH GFS has progged 37knots average for NZWN.. and that is higher in reality there.
Looks then likely the heaviest rain of this bugbear will head up through Manawatu/Wairarapa/East Wellington.. but places like Tauranga, C'del, Gisborne could really cop it depending on track.
NW jet to 140 knots, 200km NE of Whangarei during Sunday.. increasing to 190 knots on it's departure/further cyclogenesis 900km ENE of East Cape late Monday.
Bring it on, yes?
Model output track seems to be coming into line for a strong concensus..
I'd be going what ECMWF is suggesting.. kinda between GFS and NGP in it's path.. low coming through the BoP and sweeping around 60km SE of NZWN. UKMO would be one to watch.. looks interesting there.
Heh, Brian looks like you're right about your birthday being the stormiest time of year
Auckland, high cloud increasing on Saturday.. with late overnight showers. Southeasterlies picking up, rising to gale during the morning with heavy rain increasing along a warm front. Dewpoints look as they will creep up a bit during Sunday night.. which should enhance convective activity over the BoP/Hauraki Gulf. Might be a light NW change? Monday looks good for southwesterlies rising to gale force. With fresh flow tending S by Tues then?
As said, the Cooks will be HIGH GFS has progged 37knots average for NZWN.. and that is higher in reality there.
Looks then likely the heaviest rain of this bugbear will head up through Manawatu/Wairarapa/East Wellington.. but places like Tauranga, C'del, Gisborne could really cop it depending on track.
NW jet to 140 knots, 200km NE of Whangarei during Sunday.. increasing to 190 knots on it's departure/further cyclogenesis 900km ENE of East Cape late Monday.
Bring it on, yes?
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Hope your father is well soon John.I haven't been on line late on the forum except for the occasional check-up as my father has been very ill...
The track of this low still looks very uncertain, ECMWF charts this morn look very different to last night.Looks then likely the heaviest rain of this bugbear will head up through Manawatu/Wairarapa/East Wellington.. but places like Tauranga, C'del, Gisborne could really cop it depending on track.
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Thanks you guys about my father. He is much better now, than goodness.
Regarding this "Bug-Bear" of an anticyclone, I didn't expect this current low moving over the North Island to give a lot of rain as what it has done up north.
I expected the ridge or high pressure to remain supreme over us through-out the period.
We need the rain anyway. I planted 43 trees out at our block at West Melton this WE. A good soaking will add to the initial growth of the trees.
JohnGaul
NZTS
Regarding this "Bug-Bear" of an anticyclone, I didn't expect this current low moving over the North Island to give a lot of rain as what it has done up north.
I expected the ridge or high pressure to remain supreme over us through-out the period.
We need the rain anyway. I planted 43 trees out at our block at West Melton this WE. A good soaking will add to the initial growth of the trees.
JohnGaul
NZTS