Storm over NZ, Aug 6th-10th

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 03/08/2006 14:46

Heaven only knows why the other thread on this got locked.

Looks more and more likely to dump on us (Metservice):

However, a low is expected to deepen over the north Tasman Sea during the weekend and should cross northern New Zealand early next week. A strong moist east to northeast flow to the south of the low is forecast to bring rain to northern New Zealand on Sunday and through Monday. Heavy falls are likely and there is a moderate confidence that rainfall accumulations could reach warning criteria in Northland, northern Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty. The winds are also likely to reach gale in exposed places, with a low risk of rising to severe gale for a time.

The rain and strong winds are likely to spread down over the remainder of the North Island early next week, as the low crosses the area. Warning amounts of rain and severe gales are possible for eastern areas from the Bay of Plenty and Gisborne down to Wairarapa and the eastern hills of Wellington. There is still considerable uncertainty in the track and development of this system. However, it has the potential to be a particularly nasty storm, and people in the above areas are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts

Mod edit: title and quotations

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 03/08/2006 15:41

it does look likely that northern Nz will gest a blast form this rapidly developing depression from the tropics. you are stealing yet another depression form aussie

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 03/08/2006 17:46

Yep my flight to Great Barrier on Tuesday is going to be a stomach churner...whiteknucked as alluded to earlier

Manukau heads obs · Thu 03/08/2006 18:24

looks to be a good gale SWer by tuesday?

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 03/08/2006 19:28

hope not...actually to be honest we havent had lots of those awful ones where the windows almost rattle out of the frames,the rain blows upways and the not just the pine needles fly but pine branches

Manukau heads observer wrote:looks to be a good gale SWer by tuesday?

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Thu 03/08/2006 20:14

Wow...models are impressive, indeed...a LOT of precip coming our way, if they hold out...recent GFS run has the low going further south, though...hmmm...I know it will all change before then, will be interesting to see how it pans out!

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 03/08/2006 20:54

It is a biggy alright

one to watch thats for sure.
If it was early Jan,Feb This would most likly be considerd a cyclone.
Wouldn't mind some more warm days though I quite enjoyed Mon,Tues.
I see South Africa has had snow to quite low elevations of which never seen in quite some time

.
Was on the news tonight plus more heatwaves in USA.
First Hurricane looks set to develope for Gulf of Mexico area too already has a name Chris currently a Tropical Storm.
Cheers
Jason.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Thu 03/08/2006 23:10

finally we are looking at some interesting weather, hehe after having a beautiful week or last couple of weeks, i think its time for a change ae. yeah it does look good around the 6th of august esp for the north island.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 04/08/2006 00:16

looks like a real ripper for you guys with plenty of severe gales and heavy rains for the NI and top if the SI

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 04/08/2006 00:30

Sorry about locking that thread Razor.. I thought John was up to his tricks again calling a it a bug-bear anticyclone.. and I thought he meant severe wx! A total misunderstanding!

Not sure if it is right to be calling this system a 'weather bomb' just yet.. as the central pressure must drop 24 millibars over 24 hours.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 04/08/2006 09:46

A strong region of convergance has sharpened over New Caledonia this morning as it drifted from the NE around Vanuatu. The sub-Antarctic jetstream has done really well to amplify the jetstream over northern Aus and tend the flow NNW now.

This certainly looks to be a system that will dump and not nesesarily blow.

Target areas for very heavy rain still include East Wellington, Manawatu, Wairarapa and all of the BoP.

MetService urban forecast for Auckland should be reading:

Saturday: Rain slowly developing and becoming widespread.
Easterlies increasing. 15Â°C

Sunday: Heavy rain then easing showers.
Strong northeasterlies. 18Â°C

Monday: Showers, possible thunder.
Gusty westerly. 16Â°C

Will have to wait their update

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Fri 04/08/2006 10:09

Here was my radio forecast..
Can anyone be confident about winds with this sort of low track?

OUTLOOK..

Saturday - Early Morning Fog then some cloud, Rain developing, E To NE becoming stronger
Sunday - Rain heavy at times, strong NE tending N
Monday - Showers, strong NW
Tuesday - Fine periods, some showers and a chance of thunder, N-NW

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 04/08/2006 11:13

yes, looks like the rain will arrive early and maybe some thunder early next week.

Currently 12C, dewpoint 12C, Fog .

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 04/08/2006 14:14

A severe weather watch has been issued for the following areas.

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND NORTHERN AUCKLAND COROMANDEL
PENINSULA BAY OF PLENTY AND NORTHERN GISBORNE
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1053hrs 04-Aug-2006

STORMY CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AREAS
LATER THIS WEEKEND

MetService forecasters are monitoring a low in the north Tasman Sea
that is expected to deepen over the weekend and head towards New
Zealand. The development and track of this low is still uncertain,
however it looks likely it will cross central New Zealand early next
week. A strong moist northeast flow to the southeast of the low is
forecast to bring rain to northern New Zealand from later on Saturday,
with some very heavy falls expected on Sunday. The heaviest rain is
likely to be in Northland, Northern Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula,
Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne, where totals could well exceed
100mm. The rain is likely to be accompanied by gale northeasterlies
on Sunday and there is even a risk of potentially damaging gusts for
a time.
People in these areas are advised to remain up to date with the
latest forecasts in case this watch is upgraded to a full warning. (Metservice)

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 04/08/2006 15:02

Its all on...ok weather 'bomb' might be the wrong terminology but its looking on the cards now looking at whats there now vs what is there by end of play tomorrow

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 04/08/2006 15:24

Can all sources of external info please be quoted upon in everyone's message posts. That includes weather warnings, news articles and what not. Just so that it's easier to make clear what's in the user's words and what isn't. Thanks - Willoughby

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 04/08/2006 18:52

Rain already coming into view of the rain radar.. sliding past North Cape now.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 05/08/2006 08:35

looks an evil morning today 10c lucky if it will get to 12

Manukau heads obs · Sat 05/08/2006 09:57

rain already over northland, stops just north of auckland....and yet the marine forecast only talks about rain this evening (its not been updated yet, but is out of date badly)
yes, an evil looking sky...a leaden sky

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 05/08/2006 10:07

Light rain has started here.
Cold 10C, no sun or wind to lift the temp.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 05/08/2006 10:17

Steady rain here in Waitakere/ Swanson...this event is going to be big I suspect over the next 24-36hrs in particular

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 05/08/2006 10:33

That's quite an impressive sheet of cloud enroaching onto us.

Overcast, 9Â°C with a touch of a SE'er here

GFS progging 112 and 117mm for Hamilton and Auckland from this system.
Tauranga 138mm until Thursday.

Taking a look at Auckland MM5.. looks like rain may clear up for a time tomorrow for lunch?.. and the heavy stuff arrives in the Coromandel then.

Small area of near gales west of Karikari Peninsular moving down now.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 05/08/2006 11:14

It's starting to look like a significant snow dump on the way for the Canterbury high country too.

As always August is the big snow month for the skifields etc.
Doubtful it'll come down lower than 400-500m though so just cold rain for the lambs to look out for.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 05/08/2006 11:41

The system looks like it may slide over the top of the NI to the BOP as its so cold and the winds not NE

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 05/08/2006 11:49

Ridge should ensure the low passes to our west Michael. Classic warm front conditions today, cold and wet. Should see much milder weather tomorrow as the warm front passes through. I notice the dewpoint at Norfolk Island 18C.