Cold summer expected by NIWA

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 06/08/2006 16:16

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/newsdetail1 ... yID=100787

Of the cold winters of recent years, I remember the 1991 and 1991 winters being followed by colder than normal summers. 1995's cold mid-winter however, was followed by the warm 1995/96 summer, but after the cold 1996 winter, the following summer was colder than usual.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sun 06/08/2006 17:45

Aren't we getting a bit ahead of ourselves here? Winter isn't over, and if August turned out a bit milder than average then the overall winter deficit wouldn't be that large (June was -1.2C and July +0.3C). And the quote doesn't actually "expect" a cold summer, strictly speaking...

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 06/08/2006 17:52

means a cold summer here with horrible south westerlies like the many other uncountless non summers

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sun 06/08/2006 18:33

RWood wrote:Aren't we getting a bit ahead of ourselves here? Winter isn't over, and if August turned out a bit milder than average then the overall winter deficit wouldn't be that large (June was -1.2C and July +0.3C). And the quote doesn't actually "expect" a cold summer, strictly speaking...

Yes are not still in winter, summer is still 4+ months away !

It hasn't been that cold winter really. Just what you would expect i thought, I think some people have forgotten what a real winter is like.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 06/08/2006 18:52

If that is the case of colder summer a positive is we will likly see more damaging hailstorms and tornadoes coming from a storm chasers prospectus of corse I dont think farmers would be too happy.
Negative would be not enough time behind the BBQ and more pot likes plus not enough time for the jandals OW

.
But I believe this summer could be a hot one we will wait see.
Cheers
Jason.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 06/08/2006 22:40

Good point there, R Wood

People think that because winter came early in the winter months, then the whole winter is cold.
I have not had an exceptional cold frost here so far this winter compared to other years, so probably this winter will pan out as being probably average.

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 06/08/2006 22:45

Jasestrm wrote:If that is the case of colder summer a positive is we will likly see more damaging hailstorms and tornadoes coming from a storm chasers prospectus of corse I dont think farmers would be too happy.
Negative would be not enough time behind the BBQ and more pot likes plus not enough time for the jandals OW .
But I believe this summer could be a hot one we will wait see.
Cheers
Jason.

Jason,
Congrats on your 1000th posting.
You are a valuable contributer to this forum.
However, could you please check your postings before posting them.
I couldn't make sense, and possibly a few others could not either, of what you meant in parts of the above.

COULD ALL CONTRIBUTERS CHECK THEIR POSTINGS BEFORE POSTAGE

JohnGaul
NZTS and Moderator

Manukau heads obs · Sun 06/08/2006 22:46

good frosts need certain weather patterns (e.g large slow moving high with dry cold air), but that does not mean its a cold winter just because you get that weather pattern for a few days in the sense that what makes a cold winter for climate purposed is instead when you are talking about mean temperatures over extended time periods (weeks/months )been colder than normal, through a range of weather patterns (e.g because of say colder sea temperatures or winds from the SW/S quarter more, etc)
thats my thoughts.....

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 07/08/2006 09:47

The whole article is a crock. Its obviously set up by a mischievous journalist wanting to see if there is any scientific backing for the populist notion that New Zealand's seasons follow those in the Northern Hemisphere (which is just another example of cultural cringe, would European journalists be likely to ask their scientists if Europe was likely to have a cold winter because its been cold in New Zealand this year? I dont think so!).

The article suggests this has been one of the coldest winters on record, which is wrong. June was one of the coldest Junes on record (although nowhere near THE coldest) but July was milder and August has only just started.

The article goes on to suggest that a cold summer is likely, yet all Jim Renwick was saying was that the historical trend was for cold winters (which we may not yet have) to be followed by cold summers. There is no suggestion in his comments that NIWA is actually forecasting a cold summer, and nor would we expect them to at this early stage.

I find this sort of reporting really unsatisfactory, its misleading and sensationalist, and sets the general public off on a line of thought which is unjustified.

Jasestrm wrote:Negative would be not enough time behind the BBQ and more pot

So, you're predicting a good summer for marajuana growers then...

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 07/08/2006 10:33

Well said, TonyT. This sort of junk is intensely annoying, particularly with the endless rehashing of the Britstuff

. One of the many anecdotes I've heard is along these lines - a Met. forecaster was asked what the summer of 1983/4 might be like, after the cool, dry and windy one in 1982/3 [at least for the area of supposed interest to the journalist]. He suggested it would probably be less dry than the previous one, and not necessarily warmer - couldn't be sure. Next day he sees an article headlined "Cold, wet summer predicted"!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 07/08/2006 11:15

One of the many anecdotes I've heard is along these lines - a Met. forecaster was asked what the summer of 1983/4 might be like, after the cool, dry and windy one in 1982/3 [at least for the area of supposed interest to the journalist]. He suggested it would probably be less dry than the previous one, and not necessarily warmer - couldn't be sure. Next day he sees an article headlined "Cold, wet summer predicted"!

Actually the summer of 1983/84 did turn out to be colder and wetter than normal for NZ, at least in eastern areas. (but with less wind than 82/83) However, it's true that the media tend to beat up stories with over generalising and exaggerating headlines, aiming more to grab readers' attention than summarising what's meant to be said.

Anyway, as other posters suggested, it's often difficult to judge a whole season, as weather patterns tend to vary considerably within seasons. July this year may have been slightly milder than normal, but who knows what may happen later this month. (though it looks like a colder period with more southerlies and southwesterlies coming up over this coming week)

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 07/08/2006 19:24

At the risk of adding too much, it certainly seems that Jim Renwick's assertion looks good. Apart from the more recent cases already mentioned, some counterexamples (coldish winters followed by warmish summers) are
1969-70 (large change), 1961-62, 1958-59, 1955-56 and 1937-38 (very cold to very hot) and 1934-35 (cold to hottest ever).

There are many examples where his comment works, the most outstanding in the cases I checked being 1941-42 (both seasons very cold).

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 07/08/2006 20:44

There are many examples where his comment works, the most outstanding in the cases I checked being 1941-42 (both seasons very cold).

1975-76 and 1976-77 also spring to mind as cold summers following coldish winters. In 1972,a cold winter was followed by a war spring, then a cold December, but the summer of early 1973 was warm. (indeed Feb 1973 will be remembered for recording NZ's hottest ever recorded temps)

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 07/08/2006 21:13

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Jasestrm wrote:If that is the case of colder summer a positive is we will likly see more damaging hailstorms and tornadoes coming from a storm chasers prospectus of corse I dont think farmers would be too happy.
Negative would be not enough time behind the BBQ and more pot likes plus not enough time for the jandals OW .
But I believe this summer could be a hot one we will wait see.
Cheers
Jason.

Jason,
Congrats on your 1000th posting.
You are a valuable contributer to this forum.
However, could you please check your postings before posting them.
I couldn't make sense, and possibly a few others could not either, of what you meant in parts of the above.

COULD ALL CONTRIBUTERS CHECK THEIR POSTINGS BEFORE POSTAGE

JohnGaul
NZTS and Moderator

I believe you were talking about the Pot likes which is another meaning for an indoor BBQ winter type food bring along a meat dish.
Also the word OW comes from the TV series show of Bro Town such a funny classic millions watch it pokes the poop a Maori's even though I am part

.
Cheers
Jason.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 07/08/2006 21:46

Jasestrm wrote: I believe you were talking about the Pot likes which is another meaning for an indoor BBQ winter type food bring along a meat dish.

Oh thicky me

Also the word OW comes from the TV series show of Bro Town such a funny classic millions watch it pokes the poop a Maori's even though I am part .
Cheers
Jason.

I don't know much of Maori culture except that they call women 'sheilas' and men as broze???

JohnGaul
NZTS

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 08/08/2006 08:30

tich wrote:
1975-76 and 1976-77 also spring to mind as cold summers following coldish winters. In 1972,a cold winter was followed by a war spring, then a cold December, but the summer of early 1973 was warm. (indeed Feb 1973 will be remembered for recording NZ's hottest ever recorded temps)

From the "other side", it looks as if warmer winters are usually followed by warmer summers. However the exceptionally warm winter in 1971 was followed by a coolish dry summer - a marked Nina-Nino switch was going on.
In 1987/8 a very warm winter then saw an average summer (but with one hot month), and in 2002/3 a very warm winter was followed by a coolish dry summer (though the March afterwards was very warm and sunny).

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 08/08/2006 10:22

Wasnt that a drought in Wellington and Paraparumu was getting the highs for ages then

RWood wrote: and in 2002/3 a very warm winter was followed by a coolish dry summer (though the March afterwards was very warm and sunny).

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 08/08/2006 10:37

Correct - and that quadrant of the NI in particular had record high sunshine for the month (and in fact at Kelburn the % of possible probably matched any month's best in almost a century of data) - anticyclonic ENE over the area was persistent.