End of the golden weather

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 20/10/2003 22:11

As they say, all good things must come to an end - and that includes this present spell of fine and (in many places) warm weather. Having a look at various models, it appears that Labour Weekend should see a return to wintry conditions, beginning with a cold front and southerly change on Friday. GASP looks particularly interesting, with a 524 thickness line crossing the centre of the South Island in a (albeit not strong) southerly flow. Then on Monday GASP is predicting a deep low to move onto the west of the North Island, while cold air (below 540 thickness) persists over the centre and lower parts of the island. Another late snowfall?

Ben
Christchurch

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Tue 21/10/2003 08:42

Hopefully no more snow.

However the soil temps will be a lot warmer now especially inland.

So the snow level should not be below 800-900m come this weekend - heres hoping. So much snow has melted in the last week it has been amazing, this has helped with freezing levels probably reaching 3000m inland

The garden has really responded to this warm weather with everything growing vigorously, and is defiantly looking great.

Andy

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Tue 21/10/2003 13:48

The weeds have definately responded well here! lol

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 21/10/2003 17:36

ricky wrote:The weeds have definately responded well here! lol

Same here, I mowed the lawns on Saturday and they were so lush.
I imagine what they will be like in 4 months time ??

Warm here today. I got up to 26.5C before and after the NW.

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 21/10/2003 18:45

Drying out suprisingly quick in Auckland.

Remaining sunny here despite the NE breeze.

21C today.

jeffsweather · Unread post by **jeffsweather** » Tue 21/10/2003 18:49

I recorded 26.2C at 14:20 today, highest temperature I've recorded since the 17th Feb when we had 28.8C.
Strange to think we could be sitting by the heater in a few days!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 21/10/2003 18:55

After 2 sunny days we get told there will be 2 months of winter to return

It was lovely today

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 21/10/2003 20:07

Michael...weather does'nt look that bad. Keep the sunscreen handy.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Wed 22/10/2003 12:04

Looks like a period of unsettled conditions with depressions forming from heat lows over Australia and drifting across the Tasman to greet us.

How long does everyone think these conditions will continue for?

Is it going to be a couple of weeks or longer?

Are these conditions are quite normal for November â€“ December, I petty sure they are..

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 22/10/2003 20:02

Andy wrote:Looks like a period of unsettled conditions with depressions forming from heat lows over Australia and drifting across the Tasman to greet us.

Well I don't know. According to MetServive, (I Love the new name????)on the latest severe weather watch forecast, there is more rain coming to Fiordland.

Quote

MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR FIORDLAND AND SOUTH WESTLAND

MetServive forecasters expect another burst of heavy rain on Thursday in the ranges of Fiordland and Westland south of the Glaciers. About 50mm of rain are possible in a 6 to 8 hour period around the middle of Thursday a in moist northerly airstream ahead of a cold front moving in from the Tasman Sea.

I think it may become miserable next week over much of NZ as that large low/trough lurks in the Tasman Sea !!

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 22/10/2003 20:45

Its good when the high hangs on from the east like the last 2 days(no wind and warm) -if it was the same ridge but the leading one from a high in the tasman the SW would be almost gale strength

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 22/10/2003 21:29

Looks like a period of unsettled conditions with depressions forming from heat lows over Australia and drifting across the Tasman to greet us.

The lows won't be originating from heat lows Andy. A heat low tends to be stationary. Rather, a complex region of cyclogenesis will be behind the low formation.

November is likely to be alot more changeable than the second half of October. Could be a good month for thunder.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Thu 23/10/2003 07:49

The lows won't be originating from heat lows Andy. A heat low tends to be stationary. Rather, a complex region of cyclogenesis will be behind the low formation.

Thanks steven

So there going to be more rain, thunder - in central otago, in November?

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 23/10/2003 09:11

Its so easy to tell theres "tons" more unsettled weather to come as the temps are still "down" and it takes ages for them to get to a summery level unlike the states or Australia where it goes into summer abruptly and stays there for months and months

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 23/10/2003 21:23

The southerly seems to be arriving just now in central Chch - the wind is freshening and the air is starting to feel cooler. TV1 Weather predicted it to hit about 8PM, sow it's a bit slower than forecast. Still dry with variable high cloud.

I wonder if we've now reached the time of year that orchardists in places like the BOP, Hawkes Bay, and Nelson worry about, when a cold southerly is forecast, like for the next few days. Have the recent warm days warmed the ground up enough so that when cold, unstable air moves in the south, the little (and sometimes not so little) balls of ice start falling from the clouds?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 23/10/2003 22:50

I don't think there will be much with this, Ben. I've cancelled my 'Thunder-Watch' for today and tomorrow.
Still rather fine here, temp down to 13C Sw breezes, barometer rising to uninteresting hights!

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 24/10/2003 17:58

The end of the Golden weather hasn't actually arrived in Auckland yet.
Another sunny day albeit partly cloudy with a balmy 21C. (dp15C)

Ther colder air will be over us by tomorrow though, but should stay fine.
Southerlies are reliably fine for Auckland.

looks like this prolonged dry spell wind end about Tuesday in the north.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 24/10/2003 19:55

The end of the Golden weather hasn't actually arrived in Auckland yet.

It has certainly ended for Chch. Cloudy and cold (11C max. at Airport) all day with a few spits, though more frequent showers for a time midafternoon. Not much to add to the rain gauge though, and no thunder or hail.

Ther colder air will be over us by tomorrow though, but should stay fine. Southerlies are reliably fine for Auckland.

Maybe for Auckland, but in some other places such as BOP, the ground might warm up before the cold southerly hits. That's a situation which could lead to hailstorms when the cold air moves over. Already, TV1 Weather has mentioned cloud buildings happening around Nelson this afternoon. (whether they produced anything I don't know)

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 25/10/2003 09:11

From last nights soundings, Freezing level over Invercargill was 800m, which is quite low for late October and 3000m over Auckland. The cold air has'nt made it this far north yet.

I notice the large cb out in the North Tasman that developed yesterday is still there this morning. It is on a convergence zone between a southerly shift and humid northerly. The lifted index at Lord Howe Island was -5 yesterday with CAPE over 1000. Quite unstable air coming off southern Queensland into the NorthTasman. And yesterday afternoon, hailstones upto 4cm observed over SE Q. They seem to get alot of severe storms in that region at this time of year. I'm tempted to do a storm chase over there before Xmas.

Ben suggested the chance of hail in the BOP today. Not very likely as the
upper air over NZ today is relatively warm(stable off the surface).
But that may change a bit in the coming week as the Tasman Sea trough moves in.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 25/10/2003 09:33

Chilly morning only 7 degrees.Still overcast with occasional light rain,15mm of rain since Friday morning.I see 20cm of snow has fallen on Mt Hutt last night,not bad for the end of October.
Cheers.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 25/10/2003 10:48

Chilly morning only 7 degrees.Still overcast with occasional light rain,15mm of rain since Friday morning.

That's strange - it's sunny in Chch this morning, though partly cloudy. (Looks like a few showers to the east and west) I thought this was supposed to be a 'coastal showers and clearing inland' situation for Canterbury.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 25/10/2003 11:06

Occasional showers still falling here,temperature has risen a little,looks a lot brighter towards the coast now Tich.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 25/10/2003 11:28

Some brief passing showers in Chch since my last post, but nothing of any significance. I don't understand why Ashburton is getting more shower activity than Chch - maybe the flows's more southeasterly than southerly, with Banks Peninsula providing a bit of a rainshadow for Chch. Or maybe there's some extra little trough or convergence line over Mid-Canterbury.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 25/10/2003 12:50

interestingly steven, the upper level alto cumulus layer has been drifting up from the SE today, over the top of a surface SSW, in the auckland area

next weeks big tasman low could be interesting

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 25/10/2003 19:48

No more showers in Chch since late morning - just passing clouds and plenty of sunshine, though rather chilly. The forecast still suggests a few more showers for Cantebury though. I can imagine a frost developing if the skies clear totally and the wind dies out, but I don't think that will happen.