Wet spell looming

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 08/09/2006 17:32

A lack of sub-tropical air will limit heavy rainfall I feel.. as it developed just off Wollongong.

But the trough remains unstable.. should see the odd isolated thunderstorm from Auckland northwards tomorrow afternoon/evening despite warmish air.
Cold with rain, mainly light on Sunday.. (west of the NI ranges.)

Nice high cloud rolling over today.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 08/09/2006 17:48

After a fine morning, the cloud has built up in Chch this afternoon and it's now cloudy. A few showers are forecast, but looks like not much in the way of precipitation, and just cold enough for some light snow flurries on the high country.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 08/09/2006 18:20

Sunny and warm after early morning cloud burned off.
Then within half an hour around 1pm some huge towering CU built up and was looking thundery for awhile especially to the SE.
But with the clouds reaching a certain level and lacking something the clouds collasped

.
Still was worth the sight

.
Took A pic of some below..
Few spits now and looks to be showers inland from here.
Cheers
Jason.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 08/09/2006 18:55

yes a very thundery afternoon indeed. A CB out to the SE and one huge towering cu right above town. I thought we were going to get our first clap of thunder but it wasnt to be.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 08/09/2006 19:30

I had a good view of those clouds as I drove into Chch around 1.30pm. They were very vigorous within a narrow height range. The bases were quite high, around 2500ft, and the tops very low. There was a very stable layer at around 8,000ft as shown by the very flat middle layer cloud. Once the CU towers hit that layer they spread out in an anvil fashion, but the clouds were so low that they hadnt glaciated properly, hence the anvil shape was comprised of puffy middle level Alto-Cu rather than the usual cirrus. Frankly they didnt look at all thundery to me, due to their very small vertical height. Interesting though that that layer was so unstable, and that it was shrinking from the top down.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 08/09/2006 20:37

The cloud finally delivered a shower to Chch early evening, but less than 1mm recorded. (at Hillmorton)

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 08/09/2006 20:50

lacking something the clouds collasped

Often the Invercargill soundng gives a good indication of the stability over Canterbury. I find the 500mb temperature a great acid test of the stability. Generaly in September it would need to be colder than -30C for thunderstorms over Canterbury. Today it was only -23C which made thunderstorms inpossible.

But the trough remains unstable.. should see the odd isolated thunderstorm from Auckland northwards tomorrow afternoon/evening despite warmish air.

I'm thinking thunder on Sunday. Dewpoints should be up around 14C or 15C I'm guessing.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 08/09/2006 21:01

A weak convergence over ChCh this afternoon with winds between S and East here. Darks skies as what Brendon mentioned on TV this evening.
I thought a shower or two might pop up but nothing much really happened judging by reports. Borometer a tadge bit too high meaning only limited instability and also not enough warming from the sun, earlier.
Here's a photo.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Fri 08/09/2006 21:55

looking active just NW of northland this evening....some strikes showing up

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 08/09/2006 22:40

I deleted the ECAL Low topic off the forum as it has familiarities with this topic, even though I created the topic

JohnGaul
NZTS
moderator

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 08/09/2006 23:01

Interesting comments there NZstorm, and Tony, as you say Tony it did pepper out and stop building. But certainly tells us that thunderstorm season is coming.

And NZstorm what does the mb temp need to be in october, november for thunderstorms over Christchurch/ Canterbury?

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 08/09/2006 23:40

Was looking promising for awhile but still a sight to marvel at indeed

.
Possibly see the same situation tomorrow with afternoon showers and freshining southerlies developing provided we get some ok temperatures in the morning and a NE breeze.
So perhaps an afternoon heavy shower or two we will see.
Cheers
Jason.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 09/09/2006 00:01

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Jasestrm wrote:Was looking promising for awhile but still a sight to marvel at indeed .
Possibly see the same situation tomorrow with afternoon showers and freshining southerlies developing provided we get some ok temperatures in the morning and a NE breeze.
So perhaps an afternoon heavy shower or two we will see.
Cheers
Jason.
..sorry, according to my chart, I should of had a 1 out for today.
I will have a 1 out for tomorrow, Ne here at the moment

JohnGaul
NZTS

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 09/09/2006 07:40

tornadoman18 said,

yes a very thundery afternoon indeed

Follow Met Service Severe Convection/Thunderstorm outlook, very seldom do Storms occur outside their marked risk area.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Sat 09/09/2006 09:44

Yeah, some nice CU about yesterday however I just did other things as a quick look at the models showed things could'nt get anywhere unfortunately.

Oh well, hopefully a thunderstorm at some point soon?

Ciao

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 09/09/2006 10:42

bloody cold today 11c

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 09/09/2006 15:30

Very wet here in the Waitaks since 8am this morning...constant rain, occasiaonal heavy falls all day

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 09/09/2006 16:18

Warm front through over Northland now.. Whangarei on 18Â°C and Auckland 14Â°C. Whangarei DP is 16Â°C which is healthy

.

Active convection firing along the trough, hopefully it fires itself up further with daytime heating once the warm front has passed here.

Bolteks are dead, so not really a good sign tonight.

Murky with light rain today.. work was just far too busy.

EDIT: I see Dargaville has rocketed to 19Â°C!

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sat 09/09/2006 17:51

Been still, misty and moderate to heavy rain all day. Warm though.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 09/09/2006 18:20

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ..sorry, according to my chart, I should of had a 1 out for today.
I will have a 1 out for tomorrow, Ne here at the moment

JohnGaul
NZTS

Looked promising from early this morning but then it developed into something worse than yesterday, regrettably

The Ne just gave out and gave way to a pathetic SW resulting in a really boring cold day

I hope this coming thunderstorm season is not going to be like that

JohnGaul
NZTS

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 09/09/2006 20:15

Nine days into spring and we have seen towering cumulus twice that's not bad John hopefully a sign of things to come.
Today was abit of a fizzer unfortunatly that stratus stopped any cumulus making it to a good level so only very weak stuff about for awhile.
Looking forward to a fine calm week should get warmer from Wednesday-Friday with a more Westerly flow kicking in at times and then SW by the wekend.
Cheers
Jason.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 09/09/2006 20:40

Looked promising from early this morning but then it developed into something worse than yesterday, regrettably

I don't believe anything thunderous was going to happen (or was forecast) in Cantebrury either yesterday or today. Just a weak southerly with a few light showers here and there. And no sign of any wet stuff yet in Chch today. 6pm radar is pretty clear for Canterbury.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 09/09/2006 22:14

yes, nothing really looked promising to me this morning.
However i did see some weak cu pop up for a time this morning, but as John said it dissapered and we had a rather chilly day and very overcast.Typical winter still here.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/09/2006 22:26

24mm of rain here now for today

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sun 10/09/2006 00:19

boltec going crazy over Waikato!!!!!!!!