http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... _advisory/Synopsis: El Niño conditions have developed and are likely to continue into early 2007.
El Niño declared by NCEP
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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El Niño declared by NCEP
Well there we have it folks.. While it should be weak.. may see a few suprises here and there..
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The major event of 1997/98 culminated in a warm January, record warmth in Feb. and a rather warm autumn (while the monthly index was strongly negative to end-April). All events are different and I think TonyT's comments apply - don't try to second-guess it, especially if the onset is at an atypical time.Manukau heads observer wrote:ocean temperatures on this side of the pacific tend to be colder in an el nino (and warmer in the eastern equatorial pacific)
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yup, i am just going by the norm for what you see in an el nino
and because this one is a weak one and starting at the wrong time.....then the effects here in NZ are not going to be great...and other longer term patterns will show through alot too (e.g this new 25 year less westerly pattern we are in now?)
and because this one is a weak one and starting at the wrong time.....then the effects here in NZ are not going to be great...and other longer term patterns will show through alot too (e.g this new 25 year less westerly pattern we are in now?)
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Yes, I've just had a look back at the data. Ch Aero was only slightly below normal that summer compared to the south, west and north of the country that suffered under a southwesterly regime.
Interestingly December 2004 was cooler than December 1982 in many places. I can't remember what the cause of the cool Dec 2004 was. Maybe it was just a freak synoptic pattern.
Interestingly December 2004 was cooler than December 1982 in many places. I can't remember what the cause of the cool Dec 2004 was. Maybe it was just a freak synoptic pattern.
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Southerners complained about missing out on Summer complelety, Dec 1982 for Invercargill had 128mm for Dec 1982, Jan 1983 had 213mm and Feb had 84mm - they were accompained by very cloudy weather as well. Dec 82 saw 165 hrs, Jan 1983 131 hrs and Feb 135 hrs. (I had the privilege of being there during Dec 1982/Jan 1983 with my family - can remember it being quite wet, windy and cold)RWood wrote:Very low pressures near the Chathams and a strong preponderance of S/SW airflows....(Dec 2004)
The thing about 1983 overall was that a lot of wet or very cloudy weather happened later in the year - May, September and October being particularly noteworthy.

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