Afternoon Showers & Thunder, Upper North, 27th-1st.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 27/09/2006 13:12

Looks like a few decent days of afternoon heat showers over inland North Island, Waikato to the Central Plateau.. Auckland region should start to see these showers developing Saturday along breezey northwesterlies.

Low risk of these showers turning to thunderstorms.. slight upper gradual cooling as the period progresses.. -22Â°C @ 500mb.. not that favourable for TS development but we'll just have to rely on some extra convergance somewhere in the mix.

Showers developing about the Plateau now..

Only 27.4mm for Sep.. we need everything we can scrounge!

Title edit

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Wed 27/09/2006 14:49

yes yes yes!

and the convergence line is out west.....

dont yeh just love a good ol sea breeze.

theres not much height in them tho, soundings indicate a weak inversion at 4300m and the T/Cu out there seem to suggest this too.

looks good tho and nice and summery

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Wed 27/09/2006 15:29

nice cluster of storms around brisbane at the mo,

sometimes these fairly intense storm systems can initiate a low to develop and head our way dragging in moist subtropical air etc etc

comments anyone?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 27/09/2006 16:11

Yes, looks like this is the system worth watching, could be quite thundery as it hits cool southern air with a low over the upper North.

I got to 22.1Â°C at 2.50pm as winds tended northerly briefly.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 27/09/2006 17:29

absolutely stunning weather here at the moment for this time of year
was out fishing on the harbour today (school holidays), caught 5 good kawhai
fog did not lift until noon though
i can see the cirrocumulus from the weak front out to the west...
yes, farmers here are looking for more rain now...luckily we got 40mm at the start of the month...

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Wed 27/09/2006 17:52

Manukau heads observer wrote:absolutely stunning weather here at the moment for this time of year
was out fishing on the harbour today (school holidays), caught 5 good kawhai
fog did not lift until noon though

sounds like you had fun mate! Awsome...
Was quite cloudy here in canterbury today, cleard up to a nice fine day though.
But the fresh, cool NE kicked in around 1 pm putting the temp down abit.
Otherwise it was a good day. temp at a guess around 15C

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 27/09/2006 20:07

A bit far out but Monday could be a thunderstorm day for the North Island.

C-Nimbus wrote

soundings indicate a weak inversion at 4300m and the T/Cu out there seem to suggest this too.

Cu tops looked about 2000m today C-Nimbus.

Air was quite stable today with a lack of moisture. On the Airport metars the dewpoint was 15C at 1pm and this had dropped to 9C by 3pm. Moisture was so shallow today it mixed out with afternoon heating.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 27/09/2006 20:49

Can confirm a weak Cb did develop over Taupo way, visible from here at around 5pm.
6 strikes or so from that recorded here.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 27/09/2006 20:52

Another very slight chance for thunder In Canterbury on Friday with NE before the SW change. But about as small a risk as Tuesday had sadly

.
Nearing October which can be an interesting month for storms here as has proven over the years.
Cheers
Jason.

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 27/09/2006 20:55

Typical spring day here... Wet and warm...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 28/09/2006 08:21

A bit far out but Monday could be a thunderstorm day for the North Island.

Yes early next week looks good for some interesting weather up this way.

A bit far out but perhaps an unstable West/SW across NZ later next week.
Charts vary.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 28/09/2006 08:26

Sunny morning here in AK with 15C. Could get to 20C again today.
Showers should hold off here today although the radar is showing them in the Waikato.

That thunderstorm yesterday Foggy looked to be just south of Ruapehu.
Some much colder air down that way. NZPP 1200 sounding shows unstable conditions upto 6000m.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 28/09/2006 12:00

I'm in mild shock

- the sun has returned after 4 dismal days (though only a modest amount of rain fell over that time - 37mm for the month to date).

Manukau heads obs · Thu 28/09/2006 12:22

some build ups occuring over auckland city now , but high based

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 28/09/2006 12:57

Yes some small towering Cu about . Still have that haze so not much of a view south into Waikato today.

Sunny 20C, Dp 14C, very nice.

Achten · Unread post by **Achten** » Thu 28/09/2006 13:04

Just had a roll of thunder here, the cell looks south of me. Alot of cloud around, and now raining quite heavily.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 28/09/2006 13:22

i can now see an impressive CB going up very far south of me....king country maybe or even further south?
SW sea breeze here now and sitting on 20.8oC...amazing for Sep!

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Thu 28/09/2006 14:42

Some towers struggling upwards over the CBD in Auckland - they fall apart very quickly once they get above the 'average' height.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 28/09/2006 14:43

I'm suprised the MetService put out a 'high' risk of thunderstorms over basin Waikato.. air never really looked unstable enough. Lots of crisp Cu about but nothing turning into Cb. Will have to wait over the next few days with the trough over head.

A wonderful day outside today, on 20Â°C/DP 13Â°C

Though we did get a wee shower around 12.20pm

Manukau heads obs · Thu 28/09/2006 14:45

i see a big tower , now,nearly glaciated, far to my SSE, maybe Rotorua area?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 28/09/2006 14:54

I'm suprised the MetService put out a 'high' risk of thunderstorms over basin Waikato.. air never really looked unstable enough.

See what hapens between 4pm and 6pm( should be peak time for convection today)

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 28/09/2006 15:00

Manukau heads observer wrote:i see a big tower , now,nearly glaciated, far to my SSE, maybe Rotorua area?

South of Tokoroa I would say, though my observation is obscured somewhat by Cu.

Typical sea-breeze westerly starting to push and kill off the convection over the basin.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 28/09/2006 17:18

OK, can see good CB's now way to my NNW too, in northland
but very hazy conditions
and boltecs have picked up strikes from them
(mine still affected by neighbours fence)
rain radar shows around waipoa forest area

sat image does show a good CB SE of rotorua

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Thu 28/09/2006 17:24

Cu trying oh so hard earlier today

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 28/09/2006 17:39

Yes late afternoon TS over Northland, could see the Cb from here in the haze.

Photo= turkey tower of the City.
No showers today for Ak area.