Southerly change 16/10/06
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- 03Stormchaser
- Moderator
- Posts: 4431
- Joined: Tue 09/12/2003 12:11
- Location: Prebbleton
- Has thanked: 105 times
- Been thanked: 185 times
- Contact:
Southerly change 16/10/06
Southerly change coming thru on monday will bring the probably the best chance yet this year for tstorms for canterbury. (well in my humble opinion )
Upper air is pretty cold -30 at 500mb, 800mb about 0°C, Li at 0°C, cape ok but models tend to miss read cape readings, downside is Northerly before hand, may dry the air out abit, also timing of change may be a little to early. I see metserivce are going for wintery showers, Blueskies seem to be forecasting the change to come thru sunday evening so will have to see what happens. Of course models are always changing so take every thing I have said with a grain of salt!!
Upper air is pretty cold -30 at 500mb, 800mb about 0°C, Li at 0°C, cape ok but models tend to miss read cape readings, downside is Northerly before hand, may dry the air out abit, also timing of change may be a little to early. I see metserivce are going for wintery showers, Blueskies seem to be forecasting the change to come thru sunday evening so will have to see what happens. Of course models are always changing so take every thing I have said with a grain of salt!!
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Yes, I would tend to ignore the LI or CAPE in models. Forecasting them can be a fical business as small temperature changes on the day can have a big affect on them. For thunderstorm forecastig the 500mb temperature rule is good one. Model predictions of 500mb -30C is the red flag for thunder alright.
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4871
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 393 times
Still looks ok for thunder tomorrow in my books MS have a moderate risk out with possible thunderstorms along the windchange.
As I would like to call it the Anniversary tomorrow of the October 16th 2004 funnel cloud that me Aaron and Steve witnessed.
http://www.escootersnz.com/fastpage/fpe ... 0/menuid/3
The day was overcast but mild with a gentle NE which built up a nice convergence line which headed south. I spotted the funnel then realising my camera batteries were dead so I had to use my SLR camera.
Cheers
Jason.
As I would like to call it the Anniversary tomorrow of the October 16th 2004 funnel cloud that me Aaron and Steve witnessed.
http://www.escootersnz.com/fastpage/fpe ... 0/menuid/3
The day was overcast but mild with a gentle NE which built up a nice convergence line which headed south. I spotted the funnel then realising my camera batteries were dead so I had to use my SLR camera.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
-
- Posts: 2714
- Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
- Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
- Has thanked: 356 times
- Been thanked: 609 times
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
- 03Stormchaser
- Moderator
- Posts: 4431
- Joined: Tue 09/12/2003 12:11
- Location: Prebbleton
- Has thanked: 105 times
- Been thanked: 185 times
- Contact:
Still looking good for Tstorm today about lunchtime. Had planned a month or so back to take couple days off work this week, has timed nicely!!
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4871
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 393 times
Not the only one who decided that Steve .
Good start to the day warming up nicly gone from 6C at 7am to 13C now.
Had abit of spillover rain around 6pm last night just after the change went through not much just enough to wet the grounds so there is added moisture on the ground at the moment too.
How big will the hail be today around 10-15mm?
Cheers
Jason.
Good start to the day warming up nicly gone from 6C at 7am to 13C now.
Had abit of spillover rain around 6pm last night just after the change went through not much just enough to wet the grounds so there is added moisture on the ground at the moment too.
How big will the hail be today around 10-15mm?
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
- TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 2883
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 354 times
- Been thanked: 1156 times
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4871
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 393 times
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4871
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 393 times
- 03Stormchaser
- Moderator
- Posts: 4431
- Joined: Tue 09/12/2003 12:11
- Location: Prebbleton
- Has thanked: 105 times
- Been thanked: 185 times
- Contact:
There is quite a few heavy showers out there, probably quite a few would be hail. Not much lightning wise to show though.
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
- 03Stormchaser
- Moderator
- Posts: 4431
- Joined: Tue 09/12/2003 12:11
- Location: Prebbleton
- Has thanked: 105 times
- Been thanked: 185 times
- Contact:
Tstorm inland atm.
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
-
- Meteorologist (Retired)
- Posts: 406
- Joined: Thu 27/10/2005 20:44
- Location: Greytown
- Has thanked: 2 times
- Been thanked: 7 times
-
- Posts: 1032
- Joined: Fri 10/03/2006 14:03
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact: