Southerly change 16/10/06

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03Stormchaser
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Southerly change 16/10/06

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Southerly change coming thru on monday will bring the probably the best chance yet this year for tstorms for canterbury. (well in my humble opinion ;) )

Upper air is pretty cold -30 at 500mb, 800mb about 0°C, Li at 0°C, cape ok but models tend to miss read cape readings, downside is Northerly before hand, may dry the air out abit, also timing of change may be a little to early. I see metserivce are going for wintery showers, Blueskies seem to be forecasting the change to come thru sunday evening so will have to see what happens. Of course models are always changing so take every thing I have said with a grain of salt!! :P
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, I would tend to ignore the LI or CAPE in models. Forecasting them can be a fical business as small temperature changes on the day can have a big affect on them. For thunderstorm forecastig the 500mb temperature rule is good one. Model predictions of 500mb -30C is the red flag for thunder alright. :)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

This far out it looks like Hawkes Bay/Gisborne will get the thunder/hail but some welcome rain up the east of the South Island Monday.
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Unread post by dogmelon »

Boo.
What is the deal now?, any rumblers on Monday?

What happened to the NWer today, it was broken. That NEer never stops it is such a pain.
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Still looks ok for thunder tomorrow in my books :) MS have a moderate risk out with possible thunderstorms along the windchange.
As I would like to call it the Anniversary tomorrow of the October 16th 2004 funnel cloud that me Aaron and Steve witnessed.
http://www.escootersnz.com/fastpage/fpe ... 0/menuid/3
The day was overcast but mild with a gentle NE which built up a nice convergence line which headed south. I spotted the funnel then realising my camera batteries were dead so I had to use my SLR camera.
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Unread post by mikestormchaser »

ALRIGHT! sounding good for thunder tomorrow ae? well lets hope so.
Thunderstorm season has started so hope gets off to a good start 8) i havnt checked thunderstorm outlook for canterbury tomorrow but id be curios to know what johns scale is? :D
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

getting needed spring rain here....this front has remained more active and has more rain than i expected up this way...
and its slow down too...
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Still looking good for Tstorm today about lunchtime. Had planned a month or so back to take couple days off work this week, has timed nicely!! :)
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Unread post by dogmelon »

Is it not too dry or however it is supposed to work? It will probably be one of those 10 minute jobs, oh well we'll take whatever we can get a?.
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Not the only one who decided that Steve :) .
Good start to the day warming up nicly gone from 6C at 7am to 13C now.
Had abit of spillover rain around 6pm last night just after the change went through not much just enough to wet the grounds so there is added moisture on the ground at the moment too. :P
How big will the hail be today around 10-15mm?
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Unread post by TonyT »

Jasestrm wrote:Had abit of spillover rain around 6pm last night just after the change went through not much just enough to wet the grounds
We got 4.2mm from that, rained lightly for several hours and wind was a cold blustery SW.
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Unread post by RWood »

Awaiting our turn - may be a bit of a fizzer?

I see that NIWA's Sept. summary has now dropped references to Kaikoura's rainfall! ;)
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Unread post by spwill »

RWood said,
Awaiting our turn - may be a bit of a fizzer?
Timing of the Front looks better for some weather action over you RWood.

Rain here this morn.
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Scatterd towering CU going up out there in the last 20 mins looking interesting 8-[ .
Looks to be an isolated heavy occurance just near Oamaru on the 10am radar too.
Time to start snapping i think :D .
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Unread post by dogmelon »

Looks like Chc will miss out?, boiling up in North Can instead like metservice storm map now says?.
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Unread post by Kezza »

Just been out and about in the van, and saw some fat grey Cu's building up against the blue breaks in the cloud - they look nice and full :P
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Just had some large drops of rain followed by some pea sized hail. :D
Several potential looking thundery cells out there now just waiting for one to crack 8) .
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Unread post by dogmelon »

Another line a boilers approaching. Doesn't look like they will get big before getting to where I am.
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Unread post by dogmelon »

The clouds out your way Jasestrm don't look particularly stormy like other storms I've seen pass by. Doesn't have that storm feel to it really, what went wrong?
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

There is quite a few heavy showers out there, probably quite a few would be hail. Not much lightning wise to show though.
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Tstorm inland atm.
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Unread post by Kezza »

I've been getting some wierd looks from people as they drive past me doing my storm dance outside my office on Fitzgerald Ave heh
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Unread post by Paul Mallinson »

Good strong echoes on the radar towards the foothills of central and north Canterbury. Hail in the 5 to 12mm range detected by radar. Some thunder on the detector system. Line of lesser cells coming up to CHCH airport from the sw.

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Unread post by Andrew Massie »

:roll: Not happening fellas.... :evil:
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

wind backng here, more rain to come ...front has a bit of a wave on it...
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