ECMWF -> first tropical Cyclone

Manukau heads obs · Wed 18/10/2006 16:16

for later in the week....solomon islands area...
that must be pie in the sky stuff considering the TC cyclone season does not officialy start yet until November?

(not sure if I have the latest ecmwf update though)

also maybe some waikato thunderstorm potential coming up tuessday or so in a SE flow and a shallow trough to the NE of us ?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 18/10/2006 16:55

for later in the week....solomon islands area...
that must be pie in the sky stuff considering the TC cyclone does not officialy start yet until November?

Yes, probably just a small Low will develop up that way next week.

also maybe some waikato thunderstorm potential coming up tuessday or so in a SE flow and a shallow trough to the NE of us ?

Have to wait and see where and how that upper Low early next week moves.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 18/10/2006 18:30

Hmm looks nice and ripe at this stage over Waikato for Monday.

Yes, the upper low will be the one to watch.

Interesting that ECMWF has plotted that cyclone in it's last two runs.. I would've thought the ITCZ was placed too northwest.. we'll see.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 18/10/2006 20:38

Yes, could be convective possibilities for the inland North Island Monday.

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 18/10/2006 20:55

ecmwf web site please...

Manukau heads obs · Wed 18/10/2006 22:21

i have lots of links here:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/links.htm

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Fri 20/10/2006 15:04

Thank you...

Manukau heads obs · Sun 22/10/2006 21:33

TC Xavier has been named

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Tue 24/10/2006 22:42

Manukau heads observer wrote:TC Xavier has been named

Could be worth watching...

Severe Tropical Cyclone Xavier [central pressure 930hPa] was located near 13.7S
169.6E moving SE 5 knots. Forecast to move S and intensify. Forecast position
near 14.4S 170.1E at 241800UTC and 15.5S 170.1E at 250600UTC. Firm ridge extends
along east coast of Australia.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 25/10/2006 07:24

it will weaken soon (next 24 hours or so?) as it moves over colder water as it keeps moving slowly SSE or so direction

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 25/10/2006 10:01

Yeah it's not exactlyTropical water down here right now...

I know this after catching lots of whitebait yesterday...

Manukau heads obs · Wed 25/10/2006 11:04

you can see it here:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... pfile.html

its still moving SE ish (despite forecasted to move SW )
(there is another thread on it in the general part of the forum)