Labour Weekend Low, 20th-24th

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 18/10/2006 20:59

Saturday should be mostly fine right over the country, except south and West coast of South Island will will get showers and rain in the west. Saturday will start of warm here in Caterbury but southerly change about evening will bring showers and rain right thru the night and into monday. Models showing about 40mm for ChCh. Monday will be showers and rain over much of the country.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 18/10/2006 21:36

Also, looks to be thunder potential for east Otago and/or Canterbury as well as central North Island on Monday. Thats sticking my neck out.

Snowlover · Unread post by **Snowlover** » Wed 18/10/2006 21:51

Im going to Hanmer Springs for the weekend, any chance of getting snow? Hanmer is about 400m above sea level

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 18/10/2006 21:55

Snowlover wrote:Im going to Hanmer Springs for the weekend, any chance of getting snow? Hanmer is about 400m above sea level

I wouldnt think so at this point, will have to go abit higher.

About monday, upper air will have to get abit colder for canterbury, further south in Otago, as you say Nzstorm looks better.
Edit: although i see now its going down around -30C so isnt that bad up here.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 19/10/2006 08:40

Im going to Hanmer Springs for the weekend, any chance of getting snow? Hanmer is about 400m above sea level

Looks like a developing Low crossing the NI will push a moist cool /rather cold SE onto central NZ so there could well be a good fall of snow on the Ranges north of Chch but I would say Hamner is too low.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 19/10/2006 10:03

Looks like a developing Low crossing the NI will push a moist cool /rather cold SE onto central NZ so there could well be a good fall of snow on the Ranges north of Chch but I would say Hamner is too low.

That's 1 scenario, but MetService is going for a southwesterly flow, with showers and fine intervals for NZ. That's the brief outlook for Monday - how it affects Hanmer, I'm not sure. Suppose it depends on strength of flow, and how it's angled. (more southerly or more westerly - very important for Canterbury)

Area51 · Unread post by **Area51** » Thu 19/10/2006 12:38

I'm heading for the S.I. West Coast on Tuesday, anyone got a prognosis for next weeks outlook?

Mike

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 19/10/2006 14:18

Area51 wrote:I'm heading for the S.I. West Coast on Tuesday, anyone got a prognosis for next weeks outlook?

Mike

Fine, warm and sunny on Tuesday on the back of a central NZ low, then dry and partly cloudy from Wed- early Thurs as showers and rain develop from then.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Thu 19/10/2006 22:22

Nice day here in Christchurch! nice and warm yeah.
Strong nor-wester though that gets on my wick somtimes

never the less was a good day.
Im hoping for thunderstorms for labour weekend, there is a chance and i hope it wrks out just nicely

This labour weekend will be about 4 years since we had that massive storm witch brought the golf ball hail and tornado in lincoln

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 20/10/2006 12:50

News item (on Telstra Clear News) released in last few hours says that MetService now doesn't expect a significant cold snap in the far south this weekend. Yet latest forecast by them is going for snow to 200m in Southland and South Otago tomorrow night.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 20/10/2006 14:08

Has been a rather humid day here.. dewpoint maxed out at 17C.

(Wished there were more instability!)

Looks like snow to 800m in the south..

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Fri 20/10/2006 15:23

The most recent GFS model run (at 1800Z 19 OCT) is showing over 56mm of rain coming to CHCH from the afternoon hours on SAT thru to MON...

That's more than 2 inches of rain!! Eeek!
Any chance you guys think we might see flooding from this? (glad we are on a slightly elevated section...)

Snowlover · Unread post by **Snowlover** » Fri 20/10/2006 15:27

I want snow not rain!!! There might just be a slight chance i'll get to see a couple of flakes in hanmer maybe

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 20/10/2006 15:42

gllitz wrote:The most recent GFS model run (at 1800Z 19 OCT) is showing over 56mm of rain coming to CHCH from the afternoon hours on SAT thru to MON...
That's more than 2 inches of rain!! Eeek!
Any chance you guys think we might see flooding from this? (glad we are on a slightly elevated section...)

NO

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 20/10/2006 16:01

The most recent GFS model run (at 1800Z 19 OCT) is showing over 56mm of rain coming to CHCH from the afternoon hours on SAT thru to MON...

Doesn't seem likely - at least according to MetService, it should clear up in Canterbury on Sunday morning before the next front and cold southerly change coming through (probably later) on Monday.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 20/10/2006 16:06

The heavy rain risk for Canterbury will be later Mon/tues if the northern Low comes far enough south.

Overcast up here today, dewpoints around 15C so rather humid. Our cloudy October continues.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 20/10/2006 17:07

Flip-flops continue for us...lovely Wednesday, indifferent Thurs. morning, foul Thursday afternoon with gales and drizzle, lovely pristine Friday morning. Now NW winds getting up a little and a bit of ragged stratus starting to drift across.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 20/10/2006 18:47

Great day today after strong winds yesterday up to 19C with a cool NE wind.
I am still focused on Monday for possible thunder have been for quite some time now and I think it's still possible.
Alot of traffic out this afternoon took me over an hour to get home.
Cheers
Jason.

Compie · Unread post by **Compie** » Sat 21/10/2006 07:49

snow to 200m around dunedin by this afternoon, should be fun.

Lets hope there's enough to take my boys out and play in.

I could imagine it will be too wet and slushy at this time of year?

Enjoy todays wild weather everyone

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 21/10/2006 10:34

snow to 200m around dunedin by this afternoon, should be fun.

Very little in the way of snow cloud (cb's) showing up on the satellite! So that very cold air is still a long way south this morning and I'm guessing much of it will pass away to the south. Just an brief icy flick for the Catlins tomorrow perhaps.

The front currently over the SI will bring freash snow to the ranges to about 800m.

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Sat 21/10/2006 13:19

The front hit here just before midday - these pictures were taken approximately 10 minutes before it arrived.

Shepherds Valley WX · Sat 21/10/2006 13:55

Here in Upper Hutt, the NW is freshening as forecast with a grey overcast day. Also a drizzly/misty rain about. Good excuse to watch the cricket on SKY!

I am not to surprised by the unsetteled weather, its Labour Weekend afterall!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 21/10/2006 14:35

Thanks for those pics Flutterbye. Looks like a roll cloud there with the front.

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Sat 21/10/2006 14:38

NZstorm wrote:Thanks for those pics Flutterbye. Looks like a roll cloud there with the front.

It was quite pleasant before that hit, I got to 18Â° then dropped to 12Â° behind the front.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 21/10/2006 14:40

Yes, nice pics there Flutterbye.

Have some sunshine up here today for a change.

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Labour Weekend Low, 20th-24th

Labour Weekend Low, 20th-24th

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