Strong Cold Front, 27th-29th

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 25/10/2006 13:45

Next low pressure system set to really whip up a good cold front by the looks, and the thunderstorm risks over Fiordland/Westland look very high at this stage. Strong southwesterlies to follow, hope this front turns thundery as the cold air meets warmer waters up here.

Any thoughts?

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Wed 25/10/2006 15:30

yes this is sposed to become a complex low isn't it? ie two low centres one on either side of the landmass, but thats not until sundee.

metvuw certainly has some heavy rains predicted for ze west coast.

me personally, i fink sundee/mondee could be good for thunder up here, especially if a disturbed SW develops on the back end of it.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 25/10/2006 17:18

This next Trough gets out into the central Tasman so it should be Thundery for the West of NZ.

Some sunny warm weather would be very nice or is that asking too much of Aucklands weather at this time of the year.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 25/10/2006 20:27

Any thoughts?

Watch the prefrontal dewpoints.

Some sunny warm weather would be very nice or is that asking too much of Aucklands weather at this time of the year

I would write off the weather between now and Xmas. Should be very unsettled. The consolation could be the odd thunderstorm.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 25/10/2006 20:27

MSLP shows the low crossing the lower south island and deepening to 985hp. Severe NW gales for inland area's again perhaps with breif spillover rain and good chances for thunderstorms on the west coast and Southland,Otago on Sunday night.
Not sure about here most likly be too dry with that NWer.
Cheers
Jason.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 25/10/2006 20:31

Not sure about here most likly be too dry with that NWer.

Once the sea breeze season fires up down there you will get a thunderstorm. The NE breeze is required for thunderstorm development in Canterbury and east Otago.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 25/10/2006 21:06

The seasona are just getting later,can remember comments on here about the lack of unsettled weather in april-may now we get it in Spring

spwill wrote:This next Trough gets out into the central Tasman so it should be Thundery for the West of NZ.

Some sunny warm weather would be very nice or is that asking too much of Aucklands weather at this time of the year.

dija · Unread post by **dija** » Wed 25/10/2006 22:23

Michael wrote:The seasona are just getting later,can remember comments on here about the lack of unsettled weather in april-may now we get it in Spring

And with that daylight savings should extend to atleast end of April (and start end of October) lol but thats another can of worms...

Manukau heads obs · Wed 25/10/2006 23:20

ligthnng strikes already showing up on the weatherzone sat pic in the farwestern tasman
and amazingly my boltec is picking them up too!
ps, I found the electric fence short.,...a cable under a gateway by the looks!

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Thu 26/10/2006 18:46

pretty nice day in Christchurch

got quite warm aswel, being on that beach working is great

must watch the weather too see the temp for today too

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 26/10/2006 21:57

An interesting low pressure system to watch for Sunday,Monday MSLP has it just off Fiordland to 984hp so some gale NW winds to watch for perhaps.
Should be a good soaking on the west coast as usual

as well as some good thunderstorms

.
Tomorrow marks the anninversary of the storm day many of us will remember with the Tai Tapu tornado and large hail sweeping through Hornby, Hallswel some hail up to golf ball size.
October 27th 2002 I remember the day being a very unstable day with scatterd heavy showers and thunderstorms in alot of places.
On John's video of his two sightings of Tornado's the clouds certainly had some structure to them ( Oh yes and the mad Bark of the dog)

.
Speaking of John Havn't seen him post for awhile.

Cheers
Jason.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 27/10/2006 19:13

you can see the next low now developing as it comes off NSW...

stunning afternoon's weather here
warm and sunny and dry

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 27/10/2006 20:20

October 27th 2002 I remember the day being a very unstable

That event was well documentad on the old NZ weather forum. It was a text book thunder day for the east of the South Island.

Looks a like a very unstable trough to cross the country on Sunday.

stunning afternoon's weather here

Was nice after a cool overcast morn.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 28/10/2006 13:49

Looks a like a very unstable trough to cross the country on Sunday.

Thunderstorms seem likely in many parts of the South Island tomorrow, including possibly Canterbury. Southerly outbreak could see significant snow to about 300m in eastern Otago - this wintry airmass has already brought snow to sea level in parts of Tasmania, and doesn't look like weakening as it crosses the Tasman.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 28/10/2006 14:30

If anything I am not overly convinced on thunder and this depends how and where the low situates itself.
They will most likly be spillover thunderstorms with the rain from the west as the west coast is likly to have a feild day over there tomorrow

.
We should still get something interesting out of this system I think.
Cheers
Jason.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 28/10/2006 15:50

Jasestrm wrote:If anything I am not overly convinced on thunder and this depends how and where the low situates itself.
They will most likly be spillover thunderstorms with the rain from the west as the west coast is likly to have a feild day over there tomorrow .
We should still get something interesting out of this system I think.
Cheers
Jason.

i never even relised there was such chance tomorrow

but now iv got my hopes up! wooooo
Sounds like the airs guna be pretty unstable with a moderate chance!, good stuff.And fingers crossed for our first decent thunderstorm.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 28/10/2006 16:24

tornadoman18 wrote:
Jasestrm wrote:If anything I am not overly convinced on thunder and this depends how and where the low situates itself.
They will most likly be spillover thunderstorms with the rain from the west as the west coast is likly to have a feild day over there tomorrow .
We should still get something interesting out of this system I think.
Cheers
Jason.
i never even relised there was such chance tomorrow but now iv got my hopes up! wooooo
Sounds like the airs guna be pretty unstable with a moderate chance!, good stuff.And fingers crossed for our first decent thunderstorm.

No chance really in Canterbury, and the forecasts show this.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 28/10/2006 16:40

A humid cloudy day here, dewpoint to 16C.. we had some drizzly rain at around 10am.

Looking good for a period of heavy rain tomorrow afternoon with blustery northerlies.. thunder risk is all too low unfortunately.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 28/10/2006 20:10

Looking good for a period of heavy rain tomorrow afternoon with blustery northerlies.. thunder risk is all too low unfortunately.

Yes, looks like ridging will put a sqeeze on any instability in the north.

Looks like there is a reasonable chance of Isolated thunderstorms over east Otago tomorrow.

Outlook is for finally some fine spring weather for NZ!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 28/10/2006 21:10

Outlook is for finally some fine spring weather for NZ!

Can see a lot of fine weather in those long range charts

after a cloudy cool October in Auckland.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 28/10/2006 22:44

Strong northwesterly has sprung up in Chch this evening, accompanied not surprisingly by a jump in temperature - up to 17C now.

sw_windbow · Unread post by **sw_windbow** » Sun 29/10/2006 00:52

Could see very distant flashes to the North West tonight. Were too big to be fire works. Be interested to find out how close the lightning got to Dunedin. My out of thin air guess would be about 150 kms.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sun 29/10/2006 11:54

Interesting to see a moderate risk for Canterbury/Christchurch area on metservice outlook page. Looking at the models nothing really stands out that screams Tstorms to me but I think what metservice are doing is possibly thinking that the low may come form lower than the models are showing??

To me its just not really looking all that good, although current obs are 21Â°C and a dewpoint of 10Â°C, the highest dp I have seen in a while so who knows...

We wait with bated breath!

EDIT: Having just going thru the various models there is a chance about evening. Probably more just south of ChCh though.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 29/10/2006 13:52

Certainly has that thundery feel in the air very calm humid and warm on 21C.
The wind is N-NE and the upper level is Northerly not NW so not too dry.
My confidense isn't too high until something starts happening.
More possibility of some heavy falls of rain tonight and gales.
Great game last night alot of yelling

great atmosphere though.
Cheers
Jason.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sun 29/10/2006 14:41

yes its a very thundery feel outside.
Warm and humid with a NE breeze, a towering cu has just gone up over addingtion way, with a darkish cloud bass, so is starting to look a bit interesting.