Cold Outbreak behind a Low, 6th-9th

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 03/11/2006 15:08

Low set to come off E'n Aus and only deepen really as it gets close to NZ, off about Farewell Spit. A high south of Australia looks set to be unusually strong and stationary.. will enable the jetstream to amplify nicely just west of NZ by Tuesday.

Snow to 300m at this stage over Coastal Otago.. flow looks a bit sheltered to effect Canterbury.. but the thunderstorm potential is there i'd say!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 03/11/2006 15:26

Yes , looks like a little bit of winter is on the way

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 03/11/2006 16:11

mmm im wondering what the weather is going to be like for guyfawkes night?
The other day they were saying fine weather now all of a sudden they are saying maybe some rain at night on sunday!.
i seriously dont want this too happen

anyone got any better news since that latest forcast?

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 03/11/2006 16:35

tornadoman18 wrote:mmm im wondering what the weather is going to be like for guyfawkes night?
The other day they were saying fine weather now all of a sudden they are saying maybe some rain at night on sunday!.
i seriously dont want this too happen anyone got any better news since that latest forcast?

The wetter the better so all those irresposible idiots get soaked.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 03/11/2006 16:44

yeh id agree with that razor, but it doesnt help the good people who injoy fireworks.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 03/11/2006 18:00

Looks like some thunder potrential for much of the country next week!

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Sat 04/11/2006 19:36

MetVUW.com showing 520 500mb height for WED into THURS over CHCH and even lower heights further south...still 96 hours out, but starting to look promising...MetVUW also showing a Low forming right off the Canty coast...down to 980!!

Should be an interesting week.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 04/11/2006 20:31

Certainly a week to watch for after a peaceful 2-3days latly.
Actually wasn't too bad today got to 24.7C under blue skies and a NE breeze shows it must have been NW inland not NW here yet though.
I can see atleast 2-3 thunder chances for us this coming week here's hoping atleast one pulls off

.
Wed,Thurs prob has a better chance but Tuesday night is one to watch for mainly heavy rain and strong winds though really.
Cheers
Jason.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sun 05/11/2006 00:26

Looking good for guyfawkes and fireworks tonight! hehe maybe abit of patchy rain around the evening or night but shouldnt put a hold on too much.
Looking fawed to the good old backyard fun!

dogmelon · Unread post by **dogmelon** » Sun 05/11/2006 09:35

Yes, let us have fun on our Guy Fawkes Day. It is our last chance to have fun thanks to the fun police being such nanas. The weather can do what it likes for you won't be stopping me.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 05/11/2006 10:24

let us have fun on our Guy Fawkes Day

Guy Fawkes week up here.
A big fire works show in our skies last night, I would say none left for tonight.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 05/11/2006 10:54

looks like drought areas of NSW getting rain from the slow moving trough/low system over Aus ?
also looks like as it comes our way its going to stir up a bit a hornets nest in the way of beefy W/SW winds for a few days!

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sun 05/11/2006 15:49

weather down south is looking very nice this evening! Not much sign of rain and and a warm NW breeze. fingers crossed the weather will behave its self tonight for the fireworks.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 05/11/2006 16:50

An interesting week ahead here's hoping

should be ok for fireworks I think the rain won't set in until atleast 11pm as latest radars don't depict too much to the south.
Warm and muggy day today under that thick high cloud sun breaking through at times with a few spots of rain. Was 26C at lunchtime now hovering around the 23-24C mark with a gusty NW wind.
Cheers
Jason.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 05/11/2006 19:19

[quote also looks like as it comes our way its going to stir up a bit a hornets nest in the way of beefy W/SW winds for a few days![/quote]

We're now getting to the time of year when cold outbreaks are more likely to deliver major thunder and hailstorms as cold air air crossing warmer ground.
Southwesterlies are rather 50/50 for Chch, so we could get something interesting, or we might not. The far south, however, looks like returning to winter in a big way mid week.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 05/11/2006 19:32

Southwesterlies are rather 50/50 for Chch, so we could get something interesting, or we might not.

If the sea breeze induced NE gets in the thunderstorms/hail will develop. Wednesday or Thursday. The central Otago fruit/wine growers might need some protection from the frost/hail!

May see a squally thundestorm as far north as Auckland although Taranaki south looks like getting most of the action when the cold air arrives mid week.

Fine night here for Guy Fawkes.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 05/11/2006 20:00

time of year when cold outbreaks are more likely to deliver major thunder and hailstorms as cold air air crossing warmer ground.

I think lack of moisture is usually the limiting factor for storms along eastern SI .
It will be interesting to see where TS develop this week.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 06/11/2006 12:08

Looks like a high risk of thunder/hailstorms about Southland extending into inland Otago on Wednesday.. risk of a few storms up north about Wed morning too. Still looking good for Canterbury I would think.. a cool easterly breeze may be enough to support tstorms ahead of the gusty southerly change.
500mb temp down to -36C Wed morning over Southland.. that's healthy!

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 06/11/2006 12:18

Could be something up this way Wednesday night/thursday morning. Upper air getting around to a cool -35Â°C and 850 about -7Â°C. Tuesday will bring steady rain from mid morning, then ease during the day wednesday and return again during the evening.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 06/11/2006 15:40

Looks like a high risk of thunder/hailstorms about Southland extending into inland Otago on Wednesday.. risk of a few storms up north about Wed morning too. Still looking good for Canterbury I would think..

Yes, should see some Thundery weather along SI Coast Lines Wends into thursday, air might be too dry inland.

Rather humid up this way today, our dewpoints have come up to 15C.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 06/11/2006 16:00

yes, a bit of a shock to the system, 16 DP nearly now and 22oC or so here now!
nice

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Mon 06/11/2006 16:02

yeah totally, muggy as anything and summer hasn't even started!

apparently Bob McDavitt was saying that we're in for the hottest summer in a decade, anyone else heard this?

i hope by 'hot' he doesn't mean humid.....drives me up the blinking wall!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 06/11/2006 19:38

they call a 20 degree day hot

C-Nimbus wrote:yeah totally, muggy as anything and summer hasn't even started!

apparently Bob McDavitt was saying that we're in for the hottest summer in a decade, anyone else heard this?

i hope by 'hot' he doesn't mean humid.....drives me up the blinking wall!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 07/11/2006 12:05

It's unseasonably cold and wet (about 8C with persistent rain) in Chch this morning, and it's not even a southerly. (airflow is northeasterly) There's even a road snowfall warning for the Porters and Arthurs Passes.

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Tue 07/11/2006 12:09

tich wrote:It's unseasonably cold and wet (about 8C with persistent rain) in Chch this morning, and it's not even a southerly. (airflow is northeasterly) There's even a road snowfall warning for the Porters and Arthurs Passes.

Gorgeous here today...........but tomorrow isn't looking pretty