Cold Outbreak behind a Low, 6th-9th

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 07/11/2006 13:58

There's even a road snowfall warning for the Porters and Arthurs Passes.

Looked at the Castle Hill webcam - no snow around the village area (about 700m asl), but fresh dusting visible on mountains through breaks above the cloud. Was 2.6C just after my earlier post, and 3.9C now and looks wet (9mm recorded there so far today), so snow could've been falling a few 100m higher.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 07/11/2006 14:31

Starting to see some nice convection going up this afternoon as the baro starts to slide relatively quickly with warm surface temps. (Rotorua has recieved 1.2mm already)

How much rain are you Aucklanders tipping on getting tonight?
All looks pretty disorganised out there heading onto the NI.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 07/11/2006 15:20

How much rain are you Aucklanders tipping on getting tonight?
All looks pretty disorganised out there heading onto the NI.

14C dewpoints, I would say a few brief downpours with the Front this evening.

It's unseasonably cold and wet (about 8C with persistent rain) in Chch this morning,

A wet spring down there in Chch considering are we are in a weak El Nino

Manukau heads obs · Tue 07/11/2006 16:51

getting some heavy rain here now with a afternoon heat convergence line that has come down from the kaipara area and fired up over the waitaks
some nice dark bases in places

its heading for the west waikato....

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 07/11/2006 18:45

Overcast and rather cold today with persistant rain at times as Tich said and quite a rather cold NE wind. Rain has stopped since about 4pm but still overcast havn't checked rain gauge yet probly 10-12mm.
How are things looking for Canterbury thunderwise tomorrow night on models etc? I seen MS thunder outlook but they are going for a low risk

I would have expected to see a better risk than that.
Especially with a clearance for much of the morning and a NE wind with forecast heavy showers and hail

.
Cheers
Jason.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 07/11/2006 20:26

I seen MS thunder outlook but they are going for a low risk I would have expected to see a better risk than that.

One possible problem for ts down your way tomorrow Jason is low surface temperatures. Quite chilly low level air will keep max temps down. Met Service forecast temp for Ch tomorrow is just 13C although I believe it will get a bit higher than that.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 07/11/2006 20:31

Yeh should get higher with some welcome sunshine a NE wind maybe turning Westerly for a time though so hopefully not too long.
500mb temps are at -35C so thats good.
Cheers
Jason.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 07/11/2006 20:41

i believe That we may get a thunderstorm because of just the fact it sounds like a pretty chilly flick in such a warm month as November is.
Yes 500MB TEMPS IS GOOD!! and the high for tomorrow should be higher then 13C

i mean geez.
We'll see about tomorrow and what we get out of it.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 07/11/2006 22:44

Moderate rain here.. that band of rain has done well this evening.

New Plymouth 26mm already.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 07/11/2006 22:53

New Plymouth 26mm already

A few Cb clouds in the Front, brief thunderstorm west of Northland ( out at sea) last hour all drifting SE. Some mod showers here but the chance of some heavy showers here over night.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 08/11/2006 07:23

very usefull spring rain here (just planted some veges too!)

Manukau heads obs · Wed 08/11/2006 09:26

if only the jet stream to the north had come down this way a bit earlier....we could have had a good firing cb line on the front over us, instead of to the NE of us...

big circulating pattern now in the south tasman.....more strong winds are a coming!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 08/11/2006 11:48

Up to 17C in Chch with sunshine between clouds. If the wind has changed to northeasterly by the time the cold southerly change arrives this afernoon, and the sun is still shining, then chances of thunderstorm activity will be good. MetService has a moderate risk of thunder for Canterbury.

The wintry change looks to have already arrived in Southland this morning, with 3-5C temperatures at 10am with recent precipitation.

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Wed 08/11/2006 12:30

3mm rain this morning and cold to start with - not much in the way of wind but very ominous clouds have moved north to the west of the city. Has gotten milder with the slight breeze now coming from the west.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 08/11/2006 13:12

25.2mm overnight

Apparently there has been a bit of flooding in south Waikato..

Queenstown Ap reports fresh snow to 500m.. Napier sitting on 25C

Depending on how much this low deepens.. Eastland/HB may see some southerly gales from late tomorrow.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 08/11/2006 14:18

MetService has a moderate risk of thunder for Canterbury.

Heavy showers developing South Canterbury way now.

Cloudy to overcast day here, 17C,Dp14C, about 20mm rain overnight and the garden looks great.

sw_windbow · Unread post by **sw_windbow** » Wed 08/11/2006 14:20

11.9 mm fallen since 4:15 this morning. A lingering uncomfortable 6Â°C outside.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 08/11/2006 14:37

Looks like a cb developing to the south of Chch this afternoon, and probably others elsewhere in mid Canterbury. Wind seems to have tended northeasterly - ideal conditions.

Gary McConnochie · Unread post by **Gary McConnochie** » Wed 08/11/2006 15:01

Not quite Tich. Has turned nor-west here.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 08/11/2006 15:10

Looks like a cb developing to the south of Chch this afternoon, and probably others elsewhere in mid Canterbury

Looks like a Thunderstorm near Ashburton, active Cb near there anyway.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Wed 08/11/2006 15:24

Hmm...Looks like Dunners gettin' a bit of action?

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 08/11/2006 15:36

Not quite Tich. Has turned nor-west here.

Northeasterly must've been just coastal (not reaching Rolleston), and has now turned northwesterly at Hillmorton. But MetService has upgraded the risk for Canterbury to high - looks like some thunderstorms have already developed in parts of the area. Sun's still shining in Chch.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 08/11/2006 16:13

Hmm...Looks like Dunners gettin' a bit of action?

No, those strikes on the tracker are from several active Cb clouds out to sea just SE of Chch ( moving away).

Might get a storm in Chch later but I see dewpoints have dropped to near 0C.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Wed 08/11/2006 16:24

this is starting to get exciting ae? just checked the rain radar and theres some big shower activity coming in.
also a heap of strikes and still a northeast here.
Plus alot of cu lets see wat happens guys!

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Wed 08/11/2006 17:00

storms getting close to christchurch

and now i hear static on radio