Heard something on the radio today about NIWA forecasting "more of the same" for NZ. What we had in spring we will have for summer. Thats how NewstalkZB put it anyway.
My prediiction for the Auckland region.
I expect the weather to turn much drier after a wet spring. Sunshine will be above average while temps will be a little below normal.
I'll have a go... constant southwesterlies for Southland from late January.. with a better than normal thunderstorm season over Canterbury/Otago... very dry over the upper North Island with possible wetter than normal conditions in Eastland. Warmer northerlies.. and an increase in them too.
Steven or anyone, what were the thunderstorms like in the summer of '97/'98? This summer could shape up quite the same as that one.
The SOI trends look quite the same at the start of that El Nino.. this one looks just a bit steeper with the standard SOI. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... /figt2.gif
Foggy Hamilton wrote:I'll have a go... constant southwesterlies for Southland from late January.. with a better than normal thunderstorm season over Canterbury/Otago... very dry over the upper North Island with possible wetter than normal conditions in Eastland. Warmer northerlies.. and an increase in them too.
Steven or anyone, what were the thunderstorms like in the summer of '97/'98? This summer could shape up quite the same as that one.
The SOI trends look quite the same at the start of that El Nino.. this one looks just a bit steeper with the standard SOI. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... /figt2.gif
I'm going to copy this to see if you get it right.
Was thinking along the same lines as Foggy I think storm season where there is usually more thunderstorms will possibly extend itself a week so usually it's 20th December-January 5th instead perhaps 20th December-15th January.
Best time is usually around xmas new years when there can be 4-5 days of thunder in a row but last year was a dud really .
Have heard thunder on 3 days so far this season not bad but here's hoping for some proper ones soon.
Small risk here tomorrow evening with the windchange at this stage but better further south.
Cheers
Jason.
Steven or anyone, what were the thunderstorms like in the summer of '97/'98?
That was a sunny very warm summer Foggy. December and January were very stable months in the north, February and March were more unstable.
with a better than normal thunderstorm season over Canterbury/Otago..
Yes, odds are that there will be more thunderstorms than normal in east Otago/Canterbury.
i think sunshine might be below average due to cloudy SW winds (anticyclonic gloom) type conditions maybe?
Yes. Hopefully the SW are not too moist/cloudy.
I am predicting higher sunshine due to less convective cloud. In a normal summer those sea breeze fronts can really cloud up our skies.
As the SW pattern is very dry in the summer months we could have a drought by late summer Brian.
Two Thunderstorms over Spring and Summer would count as above average for Canterbury. It hasn't been good Watermelon growing weather so far so any improvement would be welcome.
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
what are the chances of a TC hitting NZ this summer?
i think above average...maybe before xmas?
as there has been alot of early activity in the coral sea....
Manukau heads observer wrote:what are the chances of a TC hitting NZ this summer?
i think above average...maybe before xmas?
as there has been alot of early activity in the coral sea....
Yeah it has been very active that way.. but it's only the eastern third of the Coral Sea.. so I think we'll see a lot of our 'bound' systems will skirt off past East Cape giving us just instead anti-cyclonic southeasterlies?
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
we have been so deprived of thunderstorms here this year, will have to go to the US again next year!
(I have been milking cows every weekend to save up!)
Manukau heads observer wrote:we have been so deprived of thunderstorms here this year, will have to go to the US again next year!
(I have been milking cows every weekend to save up!)
Stop teasing me, the more I think about it, the more I am tempted to try to go as well.
I have seen atleast one forecaster predict a wet January for Auckland with low pressure systems coming in from the north. Its interesting to see a variation in opinion out there.
Top End Australia so far this season, glad I didn't plan a trip up there this year, was thinking about it.
Certainly would be a good trip to do one day although I think NSW is the place for storms in Aussie. NSW does get supercells whereas NT doesn't.
NE NSW gets a severe thunderstorm every other day just about!
Severe thunderstorms are quite common there in spring/summer. But they are not all supercells. Would be a good place to live if you like thunderstorms.