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Friday, weekend Canterbury Thunderstorm risk 08-

Posted: Tue 05/12/2006 06:12
by 03Stormchaser
Looks like it may well be our first decent thunder storm day. As long as the change doesnt come thru early. Upper air is very cold, good bit of moisture in the air, NE before the change and fingers crossed! :)

Re: Friday, weekend Thunderstorm risk 08-

Posted: Tue 05/12/2006 23:55
by mikestormchaser
03Stormchaser wrote:Looks like it may well be our first decent thunder storm day. As long as the change doesnt come thru early. Upper air is very cold, good bit of moisture in the air, NE before the change and fingers crossed! :)
niiiiice :lol: sounds good! ;)

Posted: Wed 06/12/2006 12:15
by Andrew Massie
SWEET! Fingers crossed and then uncrossed to use camera with! :D

Posted: Wed 06/12/2006 12:45
by Thunder
Would have to agree, thunderstorms looking good for this Friday afternoon and or evening. Ideally would be good if some bubbled up before the change so they don't go anywhere too fast, and that looks like happening. But there should be some with the change of course to and I'm sure they'll be good to watch.

Hopefully the models stay consistent as they have the past few days. \:D/

Cheers

Posted: Wed 06/12/2006 13:04
by mikestormchaser
YAY good positive talk on storms again :) i love it...

well... we going to have too wait and see but sounds promising.
beaut day here in Christchurch its going to stay like this aswel the temp around 20C id say i haven't checked, its a guess :lol:

Posted: Wed 06/12/2006 15:01
by squid
I hope you guys get a good storm, even a supercell ;)

Posted: Wed 06/12/2006 17:04
by Razor
keep them in the evenings please...don't want the cricket being interrupted!!!!!

:x

Posted: Wed 06/12/2006 18:44
by NZstorm
keep them in the evenings please...don't want the cricket being interrupted!!!!!
Yes, looks like a high risk of the afternoon being washed/hailed out by a thunderstorm.

The cold unstable trough will be over the North Island Saturday with thunderstorms in the ranges as we saw yesterday.

Posted: Wed 06/12/2006 23:27
by Willoughby
Sure are some strong thunderstorms 700km WSW of Invercargill this evening.

Posted: Thu 07/12/2006 07:15
by 03Stormchaser
Foggy Hamilton wrote:Sure are some strong thunderstorms 700km WSW of Invercargill this evening.
Thought about chasing them! :D

Posted: Thu 07/12/2006 12:53
by squid
now what did i say about supercells ;) :D

Posted: Thu 07/12/2006 13:11
by Willoughby
Guys, this forum is for the discussion of weather or climate. If it's not going to be useful for the users reading, don't post it.
Thanks

Thought about chasing them!
That band of thunderstorms was travelling at a fair notch, and remained very thundery at it touched the SW of Fiordland at around 5am.

Posted: Thu 07/12/2006 17:55
by Gary McConnochie
Oh my god its the fun police!!

Posted: Thu 07/12/2006 18:48
by Manukau heads obs
but there is 0 chance of supercelles in the current weather pattern surely, and it should not even be mentioned in the same sentence, so I can see where Foggy is coming from

Posted: Thu 07/12/2006 19:08
by Storm Struck
MS is going for a low risk tomorrow :roll: but as long as we get some good sunshine before hand I would be looking at a high risk.
Great day today started off cool but warmed up quick when the sun appeared around lunchtime.
Light NE for most of the morning turned fresh gusty NW by afternoon then a very breif SW windchange now back to very light NE winds.
By the way where is John these days :-k we need perhaps another thunder scale number for tomorrow :-w .
Cheers
Jason.

Posted: Thu 07/12/2006 21:09
by dogmelon

Posted: Thu 07/12/2006 21:46
by Storm Struck
Given it's possibly going to be the best day in awhile for thunder and you are giving it a 0 dogmelon :? :lol: .
Cheers
Jason.

Posted: Thu 07/12/2006 22:05
by TonyT
It looks quite promising to me. It looks to be one of those days which will either go off majorly or not at all, depending largely on the meso-scale airflow and whether or not some moisture gets in off the sea. I'm picking it will, which should set things up nicely. I'd be looking for most action around early afternoon from convection, with perhaps somewhat less chance with the wind change during the evening.

Posted: Fri 08/12/2006 07:52
by dogmelon
Yes, probably a bit cynical. There have been a lot of let downs recently that is all. Only trouble is that any interesting weather will stop the cricket.

Posted: Fri 08/12/2006 08:36
by Storm Struck
We have the sunshine this morning 8) only downside is the wind is southerly although it should back off and turn NE later.
Cheers
Jason.

Posted: Fri 08/12/2006 09:10
by 03Stormchaser
TonyT wrote:It looks quite promising to me. It looks to be one of those days which will either go off majorly or not at all, depending largely on the meso-scale airflow and whether or not some moisture gets in off the sea. I'm picking it will, which should set things up nicely. I'd be looking for most action around early afternoon from convection, with perhaps somewhat less chance with the wind change during the evening.

Looks like metservice have written off Tstorms for Canterbury. I still think there is a chance something will happen. Could earlier see some good Cu out off the coast.

Posted: Fri 08/12/2006 09:10
by Andrew Massie
There's a lot of moisture in the air, but no rain so far.. Sun IS out, and blowing southerly... warming up a wee bit... GO! :D

Actually, you're right, Jase, where's John and GARY too!

Posted: Fri 08/12/2006 09:44
by Razor
Weather reports for the cricket please Cantabs.....want at least a reasonable days play, a small interuption for a severe thunder and hailstorm will be acceptable but please don't be too greedy- think of us sports fans elsewhere :D

Posted: Fri 08/12/2006 09:54
by TonyT
Its precisely because there is a cricket test on that we are so confident of storms... :lol:

Posted: Fri 08/12/2006 10:44
by tich
There's a lot of moisture in the air, but no rain so far.. Sun IS out, and blowing southerly... warming up a wee bit... GO!
Showery in some other parts of Canterbury this morning (eg Banks Peninsula), but nothing reaching Chch yet.