Well the heavy squally rain has arrived.. gusting to 68km/h earlier!
500mb temps look set to drop to -29C as far north as Auckland tomorrow early afternoon.. which is fantastic news! But how much day time heating will we get? Dewpoints look relatively good at 11C for most of Saturday.
GFS suggests destabilising conditions as the day goes on from Auckland northwards.. but it's mainly a southwester bending from a southerly around over Waikato on the surface.. steering winds look set to be WSW.
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
the waiuku xmas parade got rain off....first time in history....5mm of rain and 30 knot winds and temperature dropped to 13oC...lots of little kids in flimsey costumes looking cold and miserable
we had not power here from 6pm
i am up for a chase day in the waikato tomorrow
Last edited by Manukau heads obs on Fri 08/12/2006 20:07, edited 1 time in total.
I'd be in.. but it all looks a bit chaotic at the moment as to where these storms will fire. I'm picking west of Taumarunui early morning.. and then they'll start penetrating around Orewa as convection heats up. Probably wont be the usual type of SW'er during the Auckland morning, tending SE by afternoon. Storm motions look quite a bit quicker over Northland (closer to the jetstream).. just wondering if winds could die down enough to support convergance in or near the Hauraki Plains late afternoon?
Looking similar to a wintry blast 2 years in mid Dec 2004, with freezing levels forecast to get low enough in the central North island for snow to fall as low as the top of the Desert Road tomorrow evening. And probably some hailstorms further north as is often the case during summer cold southerly outbreaks.
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
nice but fast moving CB's moving in from the SW now
but can see the SE change thats going to move up....and the waikato has less cloud/showers for this morning...so should get some ground heating...and with the SE change that should move up....it could be a good day....meet at bombay hills?
The trick is where to go? At the moment there are cb's in every direction around me. The risk area covers a huge area from southern Waikato through to northern Kaipara. I'm really tempted to head to the Hauraki plains area / Te Aroha etc but with the risk is of some activity closer to home!
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
i am thinking the north waikato area to be the best bet.....even right up to the bombay hills/pukekohe hill area.....especialy if the waikato comes out sunny in the next few hours (there is a clearence moving north now over taranaki),ahead of a more SE wind change
but by starting at the bombay hills, we can move north or south prety easily
Okay, Burger and Fries at 12.30pm, I'll bring NZstorm with me.
Lots of Cb in our skies this morn but most of it weak, some small hail here this morn. Can't see any strong towering Cu but our temp is only 13C, hopefully the December sunshine can get something going today.
Dewpoints are 10C.
Last edited by spwill on Sat 09/12/2006 10:44, edited 1 time in total.
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
the last of the sw flow imbedded cb's coming through here now...and then a big clearance is to follow.....just whats needed....to get surface heating in the waikato
we can get "McReady" at 12:30, LOL
watched a nice rain free CB base with scud cloud under it go to the south of me 30 minutes ago