Rain then thunderstorms over the North, 8-9th

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 08/12/2006 18:08

Well the heavy squally rain has arrived.. gusting to 68km/h earlier!

500mb temps look set to drop to -29C as far north as Auckland tomorrow early afternoon.. which is fantastic news!

But how much day time heating will we get? Dewpoints look relatively good at 11C for most of Saturday.

GFS suggests destabilising conditions as the day goes on from Auckland northwards.. but it's mainly a southwester bending from a southerly around over Waikato on the surface.. steering winds look set to be WSW.

Temp has really plunged.. just 12.6C now!

kaimaikid · Unread post by **kaimaikid** » Fri 08/12/2006 19:38

the weather prophets at metservice are predicting thunder tomorrow arvo from Jafaland, Coro, Thames, Tauranga and Rotorua...

sa-weeeeeeet

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 08/12/2006 19:41

But how much day time heating will we get? Dewpoints look relatively good at 11C for most of Saturday.

There will be okay day time heating tomorrow away from the West Coast but will we have 11C dewpoints.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 08/12/2006 19:50

the waiuku xmas parade got rain off....first time in history....5mm of rain and 30 knot winds and temperature dropped to 13oC...lots of little kids in flimsey costumes looking cold and miserable
we had not power here from 6pm

i am up for a chase day in the waikato tomorrow

kaimaikid · Unread post by **kaimaikid** » Fri 08/12/2006 20:05

Manukau heads observer wrote: i am up for a chase day in the waikato tomorrow

looks like it will be on the eastern side of THE hill this time if the predictions are correct...

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 08/12/2006 20:36

I'd be in.. but it all looks a bit chaotic at the moment as to where these storms will fire. I'm picking west of Taumarunui early morning.. and then they'll start penetrating around Orewa as convection heats up. Probably wont be the usual type of SW'er during the Auckland morning, tending SE by afternoon. Storm motions look quite a bit quicker over Northland (closer to the jetstream).. just wondering if winds could die down enough to support convergance in or near the Hauraki Plains late afternoon?

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 08/12/2006 20:54

Looking similar to a wintry blast 2 years in mid Dec 2004, with freezing levels forecast to get low enough in the central North island for snow to fall as low as the top of the Desert Road tomorrow evening. And probably some hailstorms further north as is often the case during summer cold southerly outbreaks.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 08/12/2006 21:08

am up for a chase day in the waikato tomorrow

Will look at it in the morning.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/12/2006 07:38

nice but fast moving CB's moving in from the SW now
but can see the SE change thats going to move up....and the waikato has less cloud/showers for this morning...so should get some ground heating...and with the SE change that should move up....it could be a good day....meet at bombay hills?

cold here at the moment, only 10.5oC

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sat 09/12/2006 07:45

What time frame Brian? I have a lunch Christmas function I can't blow off, but I might be able to escape about 1.30 - 2pm.

If you guys are in the Waikato I will probably hit the road.

kaimaikid · Unread post by **kaimaikid** » Sat 09/12/2006 08:15

This is my view towards the Kaimais at the mo...

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/12/2006 09:05

wind gone southerly here now....good sign....some big cbs' in the north waikato at the moment....

i think it could be a good afternoon to chase....last chance for a while...especialy with the big high coming in?

what say you aucklanders?

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/12/2006 09:36

looking like a good afternoon evening coming up:
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... ormoutlook

met service are up beat

very heavy shower just to the south of me now
and strong CU north of the hunua ranges with some surface heating

meet at bombay mcdonalds 12:30?
(and then meet tgsnoopy/foggy/kaimai kid in the area in the afternoon

kaimaikid · Unread post by **kaimaikid** » Sat 09/12/2006 09:41

that is excellent news - looking forward to some decent weather for a change...

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Sat 09/12/2006 09:46

The trick is where to go? At the moment there are cb's in every direction around me. The risk area covers a huge area from southern Waikato through to northern Kaipara. I'm really tempted to head to the Hauraki plains area / Te Aroha etc but with the risk is of some activity closer to home!

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/12/2006 09:49

i am thinking the north waikato area to be the best bet.....even right up to the bombay hills/pukekohe hill area.....especialy if the waikato comes out sunny in the next few hours (there is a clearence moving north now over taranaki),ahead of a more SE wind change
but by starting at the bombay hills, we can move north or south prety easily

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 09/12/2006 09:57

Neil/Gary, looks like I have to sit this one out.. the guy's cricket who's standing in or me isn't being cancelled.

Best of luck guys.. hope these Cb's around Buller right now will turn thundery as they head up!

kaimaikid · Unread post by **kaimaikid** » Sat 09/12/2006 10:09

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Neil/Gary, looks like I have to sit this one out.. the guy's cricket who's standing in or me isn't being cancelled.

Best of luck guys.. hope these Cb's around Buller right now will turn thundery as they head up!

Hey Foggy - do you want me to come over and break his fingers so that he can't play???

Bit of a bummer mate - what time are you working to?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 09/12/2006 10:17

Lol at the sight of that!!

Now until 3-4.

kaimaikid · Unread post by **kaimaikid** » Sat 09/12/2006 10:24

Good chance if it goes off that it will be still going by then - keep in touch - we may be near...

kaimaikid · Unread post by **kaimaikid** » Sat 09/12/2006 10:26

oh - by the way - good looking cb's to the south and west of here now with turrets...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 09/12/2006 10:43

meet at bombay mcdonalds 12:30

Okay, Burger and Fries at 12.30pm, I'll bring NZstorm with me.

Lots of Cb in our skies this morn but most of it weak, some small hail here this morn. Can't see any strong towering Cu but our temp is only 13C, hopefully the December sunshine can get something going today.
Dewpoints are 10C.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/12/2006 10:43

the last of the sw flow imbedded cb's coming through here now...and then a big clearance is to follow.....just whats needed....to get surface heating in the waikato

we can get "McReady" at 12:30, LOL

watched a nice rain free CB base with scud cloud under it go to the south of me 30 minutes ago

KiwiWeather · Unread post by **KiwiWeather** » Sat 09/12/2006 10:59

Can I tag along?

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/12/2006 11:02

yup, the more the merrier...Graeme, you gonna meet up too?

big texas blue skies moving onto me now from the SSW