Christmas Weather

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Tim S
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Christmas Weather

Unread post by Tim S »

Yeah I know its about 2 weeks too early but since I will be in your great country over the Christmas period, I have been taking an extra keen interest in what the weather will be like.

I noticed this article about what the metservice think the weather will be like for the big fat guy in a red suit: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story ... D=10414803

I too have noticed the pattern they are talking about and have noticed the extended range models prediciting a rather good trough system for 20th onwards. Though of course being over a week out it is about as reliable as using a dart board to predict what will happen.

What are peoples thoughts on what the weather will be like in NZ and the rest of the country for the Christmas period, say from the 20th-30th of December, as I said it is still a long way off so I imagine this thread will start of as a guessing game until we get closer to the dates and a bit more certain about what will happen.

We fly out to Wellington on Sunday the 17th and stay there until Wednesday the 20th when we fly down to Nelson until Christmas day, when we fly up to visit the rellies in Auckland. At this stage Nelson looks like having some wet weather from this pre-christmas trough but the period at Wellington looks to be rather decent. Auckland, well you never know in Auckland do you! :)

Best of the Season to all and I hope I havent jumped the gun too much, but I am a bit excited about visiting NZ, even though It will be my 4th visit, the first in Summer though. 8)
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

certainly with Elnino we are in a W/SW pattern allright at the moment, and we have been getting weekly patterns of fronts etc for a few months now, so, I would go along with the models showing yet anothe front/trough to cross over the country leading up to xmas day
but these things tend to clear quickly too at this time of year (e,g the front we had here today only lasted a couple of hours)
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Unread post by Willoughby »

It really is anyone's guess! :D

Though.. it does look like a storm system will effect NZ sometime between Tuesday and Friday of next week, still obviously a lot of disagreement there. ECMWF suggests mainly fine weather leading up to Christmas with breezy southwesterlies in the north and clear sunny weather in the far south. A cold front may start to desettle xmas plans on the 25th.

Still a looong way out. 8)
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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

Southwesterlies again :evil:
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Unread post by kaimaikid »

Well....

I'm hoping Santa will bring me lots of thunder and nor-easters for the surf... ;) 8)
Tim S
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Unread post by Tim S »

Yeah really is a guess this far out for the big day, though you can get a general idea of what the weather will be like for that period, just not the specific nature or dates.

As far as what Michael said, hopefully Santa gets you a plane ticket to Thaiti or somewhere hey! :P :)

Surfing in a thunderstorm Kaimaikid... hrmm at least surfboards arent made of metal! :)
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Unread post by Tim S »

Manukau heads observer: Your cold fronts at this time of year sound very similar to our late spring fronts, quick to arrive and only hang around for a little while before clearing up very quickly in its wake, consequently only leaving a few mm in gauges. I think this is due to the wind change behind the front, here as soon as it goes Southerly we get a very quick clearing trend.

I dont know if you guys use this already but for those that dont it does come in quite handy for looking at longer term rainfall prospects:
http://australianweathernews.com/forecast_ww_rain.htm

If you look at the 14 day rain outlook at the top left of the charts, It shows that the next fortnight or so is looking rather damp for most of NZ, though you tend to see a large amount of variation with the second week of forecasting. Sometimes it can go from progging 100mm in that week to 0mm, overnight! Which seemed to happen a lot for us last winter.

I have also noticed that another model run, GFS, is going for two trough systems, one for around the 20th and another for the 23rd/24th. Will be interesting to see how that predicition develops.
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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

But our highs move north and the SW'ly scundge comes up unlike in Perth where they get pushed under the continent
Tim S wrote:Manukau heads observer: Your cold fronts at this time of year sound very similar to our late spring fronts, quick to arrive and only hang around for a little while before clearing up very quickly in its wake, consequently only leaving a few mm in gauges. I think this is due to the wind change behind the front, here as soon as it goes Southerly we get a very quick clearing trend.
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Unread post by spwill »

What are peoples thoughts on what the weather will be like in NZ and the rest of the country for the Christmas period, say from the 20th-30th of December
Early days but having just glanced the charts it's probably fair to say there will be some rain around :o before Xmas anyway.
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Looks like xmas day here is possibly going to be a typical dry NW day followed by a cool SW change at night with showers according to CRT forecasts.
It is along way out and models can and will change but is the same weather as last xmas day here.
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Jason.
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Had a look at the ECMWF and GFS models.. and they really don't look good at all from the 25th to the 27th :-S

Quite a strong trough looks set to develop and deepen according to ECMWF with thunderstorms quite a possibility, over the NI atleast if it all pans out later on Boxing Day. Snow to 900m in the far south on Xmas day going by the GFS. It looks a bit similar with the next system due shortly, with widespread rain wrapping around the NI before becoming cool with thundery showers.

Xmas day, lots of rain incoming with the low..
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Unread post by KiwiWeather »

Thanks for that Foggy :D

I will make sure I include a hot water bottle with all the camping gear.
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Unread post by spike_01 »

I am picking a fine day all over NZ... 8)

 
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Unread post by tich »

This week looks rather cold and showery for eastern areas from Wednesday. I'll be away down in Central Otago biking the rail trail from Wednesday to Friday - might get some showers on Wednesday, but clearing after that. Doesn't look warm to start with at least, but unlikely to get as cold as the time I did it 2 years ago, when we got hail and sleet in places.

Longer range models do seem to suggest an unsettled period again around Xmas, but that's still a long way out, so things could easily change.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

ecmwf has this low coming down from the north hanging around for longer now to the east of the NI, and slowing up the next high/low combo
so xmas might be better than first looking now :)
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Unread post by spwill »

Looks like rain for the west of the South Island on Xmas day but dry warm weather else where with increasing cloud.
Rain or showers for many on Boxing day.
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Could be Thunder xmas day afternoon here with a cool SW change although warm N-NW winds before hand.
Boxing day overcast with the odd shower at this stage will know closer to the time.
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Jason.
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Unread post by spwill »

Continues to look mostly fine and warm for Xmas day :D apart from the SI West Coast.
It looks like the Xmas Ridge will hang on for Boxing day.

Very stormy for the Sydney to Hobart Yacht race.
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Unread post by squid »

looks like a stormy christmas here while Nz enjoys and dry boring weatherwise christmas.
check out our online shop

www.delicatedelights.com.au
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Unread post by Andrew Massie »

squid wrote:looks like a stormy christmas here while Nz enjoys and dry boring weatherwise christmas.
Actually... this is one time of the year that i'm happy it'll be boring.. i'd hate to offend people by running off to look at lightning halfway through opening presents they'd gone to a lot of effort to choose for me! Boxing day onwards.. BRING ON THE THUNDER!!! :D
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

We are in the depth of storm season now Andrew so even very heavy showers like todays could spark off a clap or two :D .
But yes as long as there is no thunder on xmas day all will be well.
Infact has there ever been thunderstorms on xmas day before here?.
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Jason.
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Looks like humid conditions developing with drizzle or light rain in the west mainly as winds tend northerly for a time. Boxing Day and the 27th are looking nice and warm with temps up to 24C with westerlies :)
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Unread post by spwill »

A few days of warm weather before cool air returns toward the end of the month.
Fine day here today, no sign of the forecast showers.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

there was some weak showers way to our SW that fizzled away as the moved north
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Unread post by Tim S »

In sunny Nelson, yes it is sunny, but still not very warm, lovely place though, kinda feels like Perth's winter :)

Like the look of the forecast for the next few days for Auckland though, 23-24C sounds almost tropical now! :)
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