Christmas Weather
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These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
Christmas Weather
Yeah I know its about 2 weeks too early but since I will be in your great country over the Christmas period, I have been taking an extra keen interest in what the weather will be like.
I noticed this article about what the metservice think the weather will be like for the big fat guy in a red suit: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story ... D=10414803
I too have noticed the pattern they are talking about and have noticed the extended range models prediciting a rather good trough system for 20th onwards. Though of course being over a week out it is about as reliable as using a dart board to predict what will happen.
What are peoples thoughts on what the weather will be like in NZ and the rest of the country for the Christmas period, say from the 20th-30th of December, as I said it is still a long way off so I imagine this thread will start of as a guessing game until we get closer to the dates and a bit more certain about what will happen.
We fly out to Wellington on Sunday the 17th and stay there until Wednesday the 20th when we fly down to Nelson until Christmas day, when we fly up to visit the rellies in Auckland. At this stage Nelson looks like having some wet weather from this pre-christmas trough but the period at Wellington looks to be rather decent. Auckland, well you never know in Auckland do you!
Best of the Season to all and I hope I havent jumped the gun too much, but I am a bit excited about visiting NZ, even though It will be my 4th visit, the first in Summer though.
I noticed this article about what the metservice think the weather will be like for the big fat guy in a red suit: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story ... D=10414803
I too have noticed the pattern they are talking about and have noticed the extended range models prediciting a rather good trough system for 20th onwards. Though of course being over a week out it is about as reliable as using a dart board to predict what will happen.
What are peoples thoughts on what the weather will be like in NZ and the rest of the country for the Christmas period, say from the 20th-30th of December, as I said it is still a long way off so I imagine this thread will start of as a guessing game until we get closer to the dates and a bit more certain about what will happen.
We fly out to Wellington on Sunday the 17th and stay there until Wednesday the 20th when we fly down to Nelson until Christmas day, when we fly up to visit the rellies in Auckland. At this stage Nelson looks like having some wet weather from this pre-christmas trough but the period at Wellington looks to be rather decent. Auckland, well you never know in Auckland do you!
Best of the Season to all and I hope I havent jumped the gun too much, but I am a bit excited about visiting NZ, even though It will be my 4th visit, the first in Summer though.
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certainly with Elnino we are in a W/SW pattern allright at the moment, and we have been getting weekly patterns of fronts etc for a few months now, so, I would go along with the models showing yet anothe front/trough to cross over the country leading up to xmas day
but these things tend to clear quickly too at this time of year (e,g the front we had here today only lasted a couple of hours)
but these things tend to clear quickly too at this time of year (e,g the front we had here today only lasted a couple of hours)
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It really is anyone's guess!
Though.. it does look like a storm system will effect NZ sometime between Tuesday and Friday of next week, still obviously a lot of disagreement there. ECMWF suggests mainly fine weather leading up to Christmas with breezy southwesterlies in the north and clear sunny weather in the far south. A cold front may start to desettle xmas plans on the 25th.
Still a looong way out.
Though.. it does look like a storm system will effect NZ sometime between Tuesday and Friday of next week, still obviously a lot of disagreement there. ECMWF suggests mainly fine weather leading up to Christmas with breezy southwesterlies in the north and clear sunny weather in the far south. A cold front may start to desettle xmas plans on the 25th.
Still a looong way out.
Yeah really is a guess this far out for the big day, though you can get a general idea of what the weather will be like for that period, just not the specific nature or dates.
As far as what Michael said, hopefully Santa gets you a plane ticket to Thaiti or somewhere hey!
Surfing in a thunderstorm Kaimaikid... hrmm at least surfboards arent made of metal!
As far as what Michael said, hopefully Santa gets you a plane ticket to Thaiti or somewhere hey!
Surfing in a thunderstorm Kaimaikid... hrmm at least surfboards arent made of metal!
Manukau heads observer: Your cold fronts at this time of year sound very similar to our late spring fronts, quick to arrive and only hang around for a little while before clearing up very quickly in its wake, consequently only leaving a few mm in gauges. I think this is due to the wind change behind the front, here as soon as it goes Southerly we get a very quick clearing trend.
I dont know if you guys use this already but for those that dont it does come in quite handy for looking at longer term rainfall prospects:
http://australianweathernews.com/forecast_ww_rain.htm
If you look at the 14 day rain outlook at the top left of the charts, It shows that the next fortnight or so is looking rather damp for most of NZ, though you tend to see a large amount of variation with the second week of forecasting. Sometimes it can go from progging 100mm in that week to 0mm, overnight! Which seemed to happen a lot for us last winter.
I have also noticed that another model run, GFS, is going for two trough systems, one for around the 20th and another for the 23rd/24th. Will be interesting to see how that predicition develops.
I dont know if you guys use this already but for those that dont it does come in quite handy for looking at longer term rainfall prospects:
http://australianweathernews.com/forecast_ww_rain.htm
If you look at the 14 day rain outlook at the top left of the charts, It shows that the next fortnight or so is looking rather damp for most of NZ, though you tend to see a large amount of variation with the second week of forecasting. Sometimes it can go from progging 100mm in that week to 0mm, overnight! Which seemed to happen a lot for us last winter.
I have also noticed that another model run, GFS, is going for two trough systems, one for around the 20th and another for the 23rd/24th. Will be interesting to see how that predicition develops.
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But our highs move north and the SW'ly scundge comes up unlike in Perth where they get pushed under the continent
Tim S wrote:Manukau heads observer: Your cold fronts at this time of year sound very similar to our late spring fronts, quick to arrive and only hang around for a little while before clearing up very quickly in its wake, consequently only leaving a few mm in gauges. I think this is due to the wind change behind the front, here as soon as it goes Southerly we get a very quick clearing trend.
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Looks like xmas day here is possibly going to be a typical dry NW day followed by a cool SW change at night with showers according to CRT forecasts.
It is along way out and models can and will change but is the same weather as last xmas day here.
Cheers
Jason.
It is along way out and models can and will change but is the same weather as last xmas day here.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Had a look at the ECMWF and GFS models.. and they really don't look good at all from the 25th to the 27th
Quite a strong trough looks set to develop and deepen according to ECMWF with thunderstorms quite a possibility, over the NI atleast if it all pans out later on Boxing Day. Snow to 900m in the far south on Xmas day going by the GFS. It looks a bit similar with the next system due shortly, with widespread rain wrapping around the NI before becoming cool with thundery showers.
Xmas day, lots of rain incoming with the low..
Quite a strong trough looks set to develop and deepen according to ECMWF with thunderstorms quite a possibility, over the NI atleast if it all pans out later on Boxing Day. Snow to 900m in the far south on Xmas day going by the GFS. It looks a bit similar with the next system due shortly, with widespread rain wrapping around the NI before becoming cool with thundery showers.
Xmas day, lots of rain incoming with the low..
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This week looks rather cold and showery for eastern areas from Wednesday. I'll be away down in Central Otago biking the rail trail from Wednesday to Friday - might get some showers on Wednesday, but clearing after that. Doesn't look warm to start with at least, but unlikely to get as cold as the time I did it 2 years ago, when we got hail and sleet in places.
Longer range models do seem to suggest an unsettled period again around Xmas, but that's still a long way out, so things could easily change.
Longer range models do seem to suggest an unsettled period again around Xmas, but that's still a long way out, so things could easily change.
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Actually... this is one time of the year that i'm happy it'll be boring.. i'd hate to offend people by running off to look at lightning halfway through opening presents they'd gone to a lot of effort to choose for me! Boxing day onwards.. BRING ON THE THUNDER!!!squid wrote:looks like a stormy christmas here while Nz enjoys and dry boring weatherwise christmas.
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We are in the depth of storm season now Andrew so even very heavy showers like todays could spark off a clap or two .
But yes as long as there is no thunder on xmas day all will be well.
Infact has there ever been thunderstorms on xmas day before here?.
Cheers
Jason.
But yes as long as there is no thunder on xmas day all will be well.
Infact has there ever been thunderstorms on xmas day before here?.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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