Xmas day forecast
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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Xmas day forecast
Just about clsoe enough for some long range models to give us an idea....
Whats the thinking?
the latest Grib goes to the 24th, and it shows a large high just to the east, with a ridge over NZ on the 24th, and NE winds...and a TC/tropical depression moving SE over new caledonia....
so the far north will get some showers in the NE flow on the 25th , and the far south in a NW flow ahead of an approaching font,but that will be about it,everyone else will have fine and warm (but windy trhough central areas,weather, from the looks of that model....and depending on what the low does (if it exists at all), and if it meets up with an aproaching new tasman trough, then it may bring more unsettled weather from boxing day onwards....
but who knows
Whats the thinking?
the latest Grib goes to the 24th, and it shows a large high just to the east, with a ridge over NZ on the 24th, and NE winds...and a TC/tropical depression moving SE over new caledonia....
so the far north will get some showers in the NE flow on the 25th , and the far south in a NW flow ahead of an approaching font,but that will be about it,everyone else will have fine and warm (but windy trhough central areas,weather, from the looks of that model....and depending on what the low does (if it exists at all), and if it meets up with an aproaching new tasman trough, then it may bring more unsettled weather from boxing day onwards....
but who knows
- TonyT
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Looks like a rather warm NW flow for most areas, with a front moving over the SI. Rain in the west and south of the SI perhaps, hot gusty nor'wester in the east, cloudy humid and warm in the west of the North Island, warm and drier in the east.
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- TonyT
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Today's MetService long-range is going for a colder southwesterly change to bring showers to the south of the South Island, spreading to Canterbury later in the afternoon on Christmas Eve. 5 days out is still a long time as far as forecasts are concerned, but they still give an idea of what could happen.I don't really care about Christmas or New Year weather.
My mind is on other things during the festive period
JohnGaul
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- TonyT
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Cant see it myself, looks too westerly behind the front to push a SW into Canty. Looks like a strong NW for Canty on Xmas Eve, near gale in exposed places, tending cooler westerly at night.tich wrote:Today's MetService long-range is going for a colder southwesterly change to bring showers to the south of the South Island, spreading to Canterbury later in the afternoon on Christmas Eve.
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MetService now has showers spreading into Canterbury for Christmas Day. We could do with some rain here in Canterbury - it's getting pretty dry. Southerly showers gave only a few mm to Banks Peninusla last Tuesday morning, and yesterday afternoon's spitting rain was insignificant away from the western ranges. Predicted northwesterly gales for Christmas Eve won't be a help either if they eventuate.Cant see it myself, looks too westerly behind the front to push a SW into Canty. Looks like a strong NW for Canty on Xmas Eve, near gale in exposed places, tending cooler westerly at night.
A mild 23C in Chch already this morning.
- NZstorm
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Ben, should stay very dry in Canterbury with periods of blustery NW'esters between now and the end of the month. Winds could be gale force in inland Canterbury and Central Otago. Resorts like Wanaka and Tekapo could be in for a real hammering by the wind.
West Coast is the place not to be with lots of rain.
North and east of the NI shouldn't be too bad. Generally at this time of year there needs to be a strong northerly component in the weather to get much rain in the north. Straight westerlies tend to be a bit lame.
Gisborne will be the place to be this festive season with fine weather.
West Coast is the place not to be with lots of rain.
North and east of the NI shouldn't be too bad. Generally at this time of year there needs to be a strong northerly component in the weather to get much rain in the north. Straight westerlies tend to be a bit lame.
Gisborne will be the place to be this festive season with fine weather.
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So it should stay fine and warm in Central Otago then?
Looks like ending on a record low rainfall for Alexandra, just over 200mm for the year (average 330mm). I read in the paper this might be the driest year since around 1910-1920, I can’t remember the exact year.
So it is very dry especially out Maniototo and the Ida Valley.
Andy
Looks like ending on a record low rainfall for Alexandra, just over 200mm for the year (average 330mm). I read in the paper this might be the driest year since around 1910-1920, I can’t remember the exact year.
So it is very dry especially out Maniototo and the Ida Valley.
Andy
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sounds like spring westerly weather back again ...thats quite typical of late xmas, right up to the first day or 2 of the new year, then the weather settles down in january more
central otago:
what conditions bring the most rain there?
slow moving fronts with not much wind, and wind from a more Northerly or NE component??
central otago:
what conditions bring the most rain there?
slow moving fronts with not much wind, and wind from a more Northerly or NE component??
- 03Stormchaser
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looks like it could be another NW here (CHCH) for christmas, and I did ask santa for a thundersorm, but its looking like that wish wont pull though this year.
Although last year there was a storm on Boxing day so fingers crossed!
Although not weather related i found this website on the net. http://www.geonet.org.nz/latest.html
It has a up to date listing of earthquakes in NZ.
Might be worth a look!
Although last year there was a storm on Boxing day so fingers crossed!
Although not weather related i found this website on the net. http://www.geonet.org.nz/latest.html
It has a up to date listing of earthquakes in NZ.
Might be worth a look!
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
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- NZstorm
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A deep moist N/NW flow with a slow moving front across the region is perhaps the wettest situation for Central Otago.central otago:
what conditions bring the most rain there?
slow moving fronts with not much wind, and wind from a more Northerly or NE component??
Yes, it does look fine for Otago but very windy with high cloud at times.So it should stay fine and warm in Central Otago then?
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No thunderstorms here this thunderstorm season, sorry03 Stormchaser wrote:looks like it could be another NW here (CHCH) for christmas, and I did ask santa for a thundersorm, but its looking like that wish wont pull though this year.
Although last year there was a storm on Boxing day so fingers crossed!
Although not weather related i found this website on the net. http://www.geonet.org.nz/latest.html
It has a up to date listing of earthquakes in NZ.
Might be worth a look!
Have to go elsewhere to enjoy that sort of phenonomen
JohnGaul
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I was out at Rangiora yesterday and there was a wee bit of a shower come through around 3pn from the NW.tich wrote:
MetService now has showers spreading into Canterbury for Christmas Day. We could do with some rain here in Canterbury - it's getting pretty dry. Southerly showers gave only a few mm to Banks Peninusla last Tuesday morning, and yesterday afternoon's spitting rain was insignificant away from the western ranges. Predicted northwesterly gales for Christmas Eve won't be a help either if they eventuate.
A mild 23C in Chch already this morning.
About 9.5 drops landed here, the heaviest fall this month ! !
I have recorded no actual rainfall this month and there dosen't look like any on the horizon as well
Lovely day here but the awfull ENE kicked in from about 2:30pm ( just like those gales that Michael goes on about ) must be another front around ?? barometer not rising despite MetService saying something about a ridge moving over the region??
As we are away over the Christmas and New Year period, we are busy watering our property but with these NW gales looming on the horizon this Christmas week it may be a useless exercise.
I see a good drought coming
JohnGaul
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I was coming back into Chch yesterday afternoon (about 4.30PM) after a trip into North Canterbury (Motunau and Cheviot/Gore Bay), and the recent rain showers in northern parts of the city (Belfast, Papanui) had been enough to wet the pavements, but I doubt enough would've fallen to measure any significant amount (ie 1mm or more) in a rain-gauge.I was out at Rangiora yesterday and there was a wee bit of a shower come through around 3pn from the NW.
About 9.5 drops landed here, the heaviest fall this month ! !
I have recorded no actual rainfall this month and there dosen't look like any on the horizon as well