Xmas day forecast

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Manukau heads obs
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Xmas day forecast

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Just about clsoe enough for some long range models to give us an idea....
Whats the thinking?

the latest Grib goes to the 24th, and it shows a large high just to the east, with a ridge over NZ on the 24th, and NE winds...and a TC/tropical depression moving SE over new caledonia....
so the far north will get some showers in the NE flow on the 25th , and the far south in a NW flow ahead of an approaching font,but that will be about it,everyone else will have fine and warm (but windy trhough central areas,weather, from the looks of that model....and depending on what the low does (if it exists at all), and if it meets up with an aproaching new tasman trough, then it may bring more unsettled weather from boxing day onwards....
but who knows
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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

Being honest I prefer rain or even cool SW!! :) on Xmas day When having a hot meal etc it feels easier to enjoy ;)
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Unread post by TonyT »

Looks like a rather warm NW flow for most areas, with a front moving over the SI. Rain in the west and south of the SI perhaps, hot gusty nor'wester in the east, cloudy humid and warm in the west of the North Island, warm and drier in the east.
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Unread post by TonyT »

And much the same for New Years Eve
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Unread post by Michael »

The New Years one looks like heavier rain on the SI west coast however
Manukau heads obs
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes, thats about sums it up, and still dry and warm in the east, and the rain moving up the SI on bxing day, and maybe a cool change in the far south on boxing day with showers in southland
the NI will stil be dry, apart from say the tararuas and the mt Taranaki, even on boxing day
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Unread post by NZstorm »

The "Alternative Forecaster" was on the TV1 Holmes show on friday evening dishing out weather forecasts for around the country over the festive period. His prediction for Auckland was unsettled with rain 21st to 27th. And unsettled again for new year.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yup, i had that in my starting post :)
(but I didnt realise the unsettled period was supposed to start as early as that....i guess its on the cards to get some rain somewhere in the country in that 6 day period, so thats a safe bet)
(ducking for cover!)
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I don't really care about Christmas or New Year weather.
My mind is on other things during the festive period ;)

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Unread post by NZstorm »

Brian,
I agree with the sentiments in your last message. :)
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Unread post by tich »

I don't really care about Christmas or New Year weather.
My mind is on other things during the festive period

JohnGaul
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Today's MetService long-range is going for a colder southwesterly change to bring showers to the south of the South Island, spreading to Canterbury later in the afternoon on Christmas Eve. 5 days out is still a long time as far as forecasts are concerned, but they still give an idea of what could happen.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yeah, things have changed from the original model
a cold (for the time of year) SWer in summer means a low dew point so any showers will be only brief and isolated , for the NI at least
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Unread post by TonyT »

tich wrote:Today's MetService long-range is going for a colder southwesterly change to bring showers to the south of the South Island, spreading to Canterbury later in the afternoon on Christmas Eve.
Cant see it myself, looks too westerly behind the front to push a SW into Canty. Looks like a strong NW for Canty on Xmas Eve, near gale in exposed places, tending cooler westerly at night.
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Unread post by tich »

Cant see it myself, looks too westerly behind the front to push a SW into Canty. Looks like a strong NW for Canty on Xmas Eve, near gale in exposed places, tending cooler westerly at night.
MetService now has showers spreading into Canterbury for Christmas Day. We could do with some rain here in Canterbury - it's getting pretty dry. Southerly showers gave only a few mm to Banks Peninusla last Tuesday morning, and yesterday afternoon's spitting rain was insignificant away from the western ranges. Predicted northwesterly gales for Christmas Eve won't be a help either if they eventuate.
A mild 23C in Chch already this morning.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Ben, should stay very dry in Canterbury with periods of blustery NW'esters between now and the end of the month. Winds could be gale force in inland Canterbury and Central Otago. Resorts like Wanaka and Tekapo could be in for a real hammering by the wind.

West Coast is the place not to be with lots of rain.

North and east of the NI shouldn't be too bad. Generally at this time of year there needs to be a strong northerly component in the weather to get much rain in the north. Straight westerlies tend to be a bit lame.

Gisborne will be the place to be this festive season with fine weather.
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Unread post by Andy »

So it should stay fine and warm in Central Otago then?

Looks like ending on a record low rainfall for Alexandra, just over 200mm for the year (average 330mm). I read in the paper this might be the driest year since around 1910-1920, I can’t remember the exact year. :(

So it is very dry especially out Maniototo and the Ida Valley.

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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

sounds like spring westerly weather back again ...thats quite typical of late xmas, right up to the first day or 2 of the new year, then the weather settles down in january more

central otago:
what conditions bring the most rain there?
slow moving fronts with not much wind, and wind from a more Northerly or NE component??
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

looks like it could be another NW here (CHCH) for christmas, and I did ask santa for a thundersorm, but its looking like that wish wont pull though this year.
Although last year there was a storm on Boxing day so fingers crossed!

Although not weather related i found this website on the net. http://www.geonet.org.nz/latest.html
It has a up to date listing of earthquakes in NZ.
Might be worth a look!
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Unread post by NZstorm »

central otago:
what conditions bring the most rain there?
slow moving fronts with not much wind, and wind from a more Northerly or NE component??
A deep moist N/NW flow with a slow moving front across the region is perhaps the wettest situation for Central Otago. ;)


So it should stay fine and warm in Central Otago then?
Yes, it does look fine for Otago but very windy with high cloud at times. ;)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Lowest rainfall recorded at Alexandra for a year is 211mm. Not sure what year that was either. Rainfall records began in Alex in 1922.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

03 Stormchaser wrote:looks like it could be another NW here (CHCH) for christmas, and I did ask santa for a thundersorm, but its looking like that wish wont pull though this year.
Although last year there was a storm on Boxing day so fingers crossed!

Although not weather related i found this website on the net. http://www.geonet.org.nz/latest.html
It has a up to date listing of earthquakes in NZ.
Might be worth a look!
No thunderstorms here this thunderstorm season, sorry
Have to go elsewhere to enjoy that sort of phenonomen :(

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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

tich wrote:
MetService now has showers spreading into Canterbury for Christmas Day. We could do with some rain here in Canterbury - it's getting pretty dry. Southerly showers gave only a few mm to Banks Peninusla last Tuesday morning, and yesterday afternoon's spitting rain was insignificant away from the western ranges. Predicted northwesterly gales for Christmas Eve won't be a help either if they eventuate.
A mild 23C in Chch already this morning.
I was out at Rangiora yesterday and there was a wee bit of a shower come through around 3pn from the NW.
About 9.5 drops landed here, the heaviest fall this month ! !
I have recorded no actual rainfall this month and there dosen't look like any on the horizon as well :(
Lovely day here but the awfull ENE kicked in from about 2:30pm ( just like those gales that Michael goes on about ) must be another front around ?? barometer not rising despite MetService saying something about a ridge moving over the region??
As we are away over the Christmas and New Year period, we are busy watering our property but with these NW gales looming on the horizon this Christmas week it may be a useless exercise.
I see a good drought coming :(

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Unread post by NZstorm »

I saw pictures of the SI drought on TV1 tonight. A real contrast to the north here where everything is lush green.
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Unread post by tich »

I was out at Rangiora yesterday and there was a wee bit of a shower come through around 3pn from the NW.
About 9.5 drops landed here, the heaviest fall this month ! !
I have recorded no actual rainfall this month and there dosen't look like any on the horizon as well
I was coming back into Chch yesterday afternoon (about 4.30PM) after a trip into North Canterbury (Motunau and Cheviot/Gore Bay), and the recent rain showers in northern parts of the city (Belfast, Papanui) had been enough to wet the pavements, but I doubt enough would've fallen to measure any significant amount (ie 1mm or more) in a rain-gauge.
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Unread post by Dean. »

21 degrees today after the morning cloud burned off.Getting really dry around these parts with my back lawn now golden brown,we are now on full water restrictions.
Havent seen a decent Cu or Cb cloud for ages,just boring old fine weather,feels like we are living in inland Australia.
Cheers.
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