Cold snap June 7th-9th may not be as bad as first thought

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gopolks
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Cold snap June 7th-9th may not be as bad as first thought

Unread post by gopolks »

Its seems the models have changed again.

Its not going to be as cold as first though, and the nasty stuff might not be coming through, in the next two weeks.

Seems summer is here for at least two more weeks.

Its like the Opposite of groundhog day or something.
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Re: Cold snap next week may not be as bad as first thought

Unread post by gllitz »

gopolks wrote:Its seems the models have changed again.

Its not going to be as cold as first though, and the nasty stuff might not be coming through, in the next two weeks.

Seems summer is here for at least two more weeks.

Its like the Opposite of groundhog day or something.
I think you'll find the models will change back and forth quite a bit this far out...we can keep our fingers crossed (or not, as the case may be)...but I suspect we will see them change again. We won't really know til it happens, obviously, but the fun is in the guesswork involved, for sure :-)
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Unread post by GraemeWi »

There were about 4 in agreement when I was looking earlier today at work. Hopefully they will swing back as we are really hanging out for some cold!
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Unread post by gopolks »

GraemeWi wrote:There were about 4 in agreement when I was looking earlier today at work. Hopefully they will swing back as we are really hanging out for some cold!
The latest models for weather coming here Wednesday 6th and Thursday 7th have changed quite a lot today by my reading.

It seems another massive out of season anti cyclone is doing its thing over Aussie.

I bet though, when it comes to a cricket test in Christchurch it will rain.
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Unread post by spwill »

Looks very wintry from mid next week.
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Unread post by gopolks »

spwill wrote:Looks very wintry from mid next week.
I must be reading it wrong, i check the models around midday today, and it looked like some real bad stuff coming, I checked it around 630pm and they had changed quite a lot, maybe some rain, but I cant see real wintry stuff, but then again, Im probably reading it all wrong.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

It looks likely an intense anticyclone should hang around the Australian Bight area before moving east. This will enhance a disturbed cold south to SW flow over us. I haven't checked the latest models yet, though

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Unread post by tich »

The latest models look pretty wintry for NZ late next week, but southwesterly rather than southerly, so Canterbury might not be affected so much compared to further south.
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Unread post by Fujita Phil »

Certainly looks cold late next week (7 days out... it must be true ;) )
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Although the models are going up and down I still reackon that a significant cold blast will occur, and from what I have now seen looks like from Wednesday-Sunday for a cold outbreak.
Have a look at the latest GFS models.
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/g ... l_aus.html
If models can throw out such cold blasts this far out then it must be something significant surly.
Although as Tich has said it will be a more W-SW flow so most of the icy packed stuff will be south of about Timaru, although some may well make it further north.
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Unread post by spwill »

W-SW flow so most of the icy packed stuff will be south of about Timaru,
South of about Dunedin and through the High Country eg Qtwn in the firing line.
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Unread post by mikestormchaser »

I say just wait and see :lol: seems too be one of the best awnsers these days, forcasting quite far out can be difficult.
I wouldn't be surprised if the whole thing moves offshore, out too sea with maybe just the southern/eastern parts of the south island getting the flick, with just a few showers in Canterbury, but again we'll see and wait with hope that something awesome happens :lol:
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

some nice looking CB's around here this morning :)
only 9.9°C here during the showers....winter has started!
(bit of a shock)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

I say just wait and see seems too be one of the best awnsers these days, forcasting quite far out can be difficult
I think this is an easy one for forecasters. Persistent high pressure south of the Aussie Bight is the red flag for a winter outbreak across NZ.
some nice looking CB's around here this morning
Yes, wintry looking cb's out there.
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Unread post by Razor »

Hail showers here a couple of times so far this morning (Titirangi)
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Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Cold start in Canterbury this morning! rather cold in fact :lol: first real frost for the winter, looking forward to more to come, should warm up to a beautiful day! :)
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Unread post by spwill »

Persistent high pressure south of the Aussie Bight is the red flag for a winter outbreak across NZ.
Cold spell looks like it might be prolonged as well, should set up the skii fields for a good start to the season.


Some classic looking Cb in our skies this morn but dry at my place.
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Unread post by spike_01 »

I thought there maybe a frost here this morning... But Noooooooo...

Clear sky at 2330 hrs and then it was cloudy at 0700 hrs... 8)
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Unread post by RWood »

Sunny here this afternoon after a mainly cloudy morning. Change to more westerly direction helps.
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Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Went up too akaroa for the day, absolutely stunning conditions up there!
had some lunch and took few photos.
Noticed was getting cold quickly around 4 pm, winters certainly here!
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Did you meet up with Jason there?

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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Yes we went over there John great day for it as I say.
Models just keep improving for end of the week lets hope they stay that way 8) .
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Oh, I dunno :-k

Latest makes it look a wee bit boring but they tend to show the 1000hPa mark across the top of the North Island so that may mean more changes here.
Currently blowing from the NW and temperature has risen to 11°C from 6.9°C around 7pm.

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Unread post by gllitz »

I am not sure what to think on this one...the models have flipped and flopped over the past few days (I have been looking at them quite a bit, too...I was hoping to make a snowman with my kids this year, and sooner rather than later would be great!)

...and now M/S come out with this:

On Friday an even colder surge of cold air is likely to move onto the South Island.
Snow is expected down to sea level in southern South Island areas and to low levels over much of the South Island.
Heavy snowfalls are possible over much of Fiordland, Southland and Otago.
Substantial snowfalls are also possible for Canterbury as a fast moving low moves across the central South Island on Friday.
The weather will not be so cold over the North Island but a period of severe westerly gales and squally showers is possible through the central North Island during Friday.

The GFS model runs up until this morning consistently had 500 heights of below 520 here in CHCH and 850 temps of -8 to -10!! Granted, not a TON of precip, but there was enough...Now the GFS model has flopped back...hmmm...
Looks like Otago and Southland are gonna be in the firing line big time with this one...hope the farmers are prepared for it. I am sure the ski fields are gonna love it! Dunners could have snow to sea level as well! Go FujitaPhil and kiwisk8ter :-)
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Unread post by kiwisk8er »

gllitz wrote: Looks like Otago and Southland are gonna be in the firing line big time with this one...hope the farmers are prepared for it. I am sure the ski fields are gonna love it! Dunners could have snow to sea level as well! Go FujitaPhil and kiwisk8ter :-)
Yay, I'm getting quite excited, well kind of :) We will probably end up with nothing, but knowing my luck we will get a metre of snow and cancel the ice skating competition I'm organising on Sunday. I'm dying to have an outside ice skating rink in the back yard but its to warm here :(
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