Cold snap June 7th-9th may not be as bad as first thought

Manukau heads obs · Tue 05/06/2007 18:20

sunday might be cold up this way....with high cloud thickening,blocking the sun, and cold trapped air in a ENE ahead of tasman low...

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 05/06/2007 20:15

I watched the 1 news weather tonight and the icerbars are coming right up from the south jam packed aswel! its starting too sound quite promising.
But i have too say when ever they do predict such weather events not much happens, its usually very unpredictable how cold it is going too get, but things may just be as they seem

Snowlover · Unread post by **Snowlover** » Tue 05/06/2007 20:51

its only Tuesday night, I think its a little early to get excited yet. Maybe from thursday morning we can get excited

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 05/06/2007 21:01

This is just right I think because the weather has been boring for the last 6 months atleast that when ever something significant in the weather shows up on the models we go blarzayy about it

Even I do

.
Thursday night sounds a safer bet snowlover, and if a low does cross the central south island then something might be on the cards.
Sure is a strong Westerly out at the moment, about 40 gusting 50kmh at times which means its possibly gale force inland.
Cheers
Jason.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 05/06/2007 23:26

Jasestrm wrote:This is just right I think because the weather has been boring for the last 6 months atleast that when ever something significant in the weather shows up on the models we go blarzayy about it Even I do .
Thursday night sounds a safer bet snowlover, and if a low does cross the central south island then something might be on the cards.
Sure is a strong Westerly out at the moment, about 40 gusting 50kmh at times which means its possibly gale force inland.
Cheers
Jason.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Wed 06/06/2007 00:22

gllitz wrote:Looks like Otago and Southland are gonna be in the firing line big time with this one...hope the farmers are prepared for it. I am sure the ski fields are gonna love it! Dunners could have snow to sea level as well! Go FujitaPhil and kiwisk8ter

I've already planned my "snow-day" away from work

. Last Winter was such a fizzer that I have totally lost my kudos with my colleagues and they believe nothing I say about the weather now. I've already told them that this is a ripper, so it's a no-show in there eyes.

I think we are pretty close now to the event so the models are more accurate than when I looked at them last Friday. Bring it I say

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Wed 06/06/2007 07:29

Fujita Phil I know exactly what you are saying.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Wed 06/06/2007 10:56

Nice Special Weather Advisory http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... advisories

Snowlover · Unread post by **Snowlover** » Wed 06/06/2007 14:31

Sounding really good for down south but not so much for canterbury!!!!

kiwisk8er · Unread post by **kiwisk8er** » Wed 06/06/2007 14:34

How I wish NZ had live rain radar like the US, than have them show us a picture every three hours.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Wed 06/06/2007 14:53

Oh yeah, it's coming (he still has a little doubt - DAMN YOU WINTER 2006!!!)

Confidence "Good"

Snowlover · Unread post by **Snowlover** » Wed 06/06/2007 15:17

This cold snap is pretty close to the Anniversary of the big snow last year of June 12

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 06/06/2007 15:51

Snowlover wrote:Sounding really good for down south but not so much for canterbury!!!!

How much expected in Canterbury?

Ive gone to several different sites with different models.

Some sites are saying not even one snowflake for the Canterbury region.

Some sites are saying a few mm.

Only one is predicting a decent fall.

Anyone know the latest.

jeffsweather · Unread post by **jeffsweather** » Wed 06/06/2007 20:45

kiwisk8er wrote:How I wish NZ had live rain radar like the US, than have them show us a picture every three hours.

There's hourly radar here with 6 hour history.
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... zrainradar

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 06/06/2007 21:03

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Oh, I dunno

Latest makes it look a wee bit boring but they tend to show the 1000hPa mark across the top of the North Island so that may mean more changes here.
Currently blowing from the NW and temperature has risen to 11Â°C from 6.9Â°C around 7pm.

JohnGaul
NZTS

ECMWF models has no 1000hPa marks over the NI now, so more boring weather ahead

So much settled weather occuring now days with global warming, I think us weather enthusiasts should be getting concerned

JohnGaul
NZTS

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Wed 06/06/2007 21:07

As a slight aside to this discussion, but related, Macquarie Island temps have dropped like a rock over the past few hours as the blast goes over them...went from their "high" of 2.9 to -3.6 not too long ago....brrr!!!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 06/06/2007 21:12

Well something like that happened here overnight.
I went off to bed last night and the temperature was 15.3Â°C.
I got up for a piss around 6am and the temperature had dropped to 0.6Â°C
Quite a bit of a drop of temp in NW conditions.
NW here at the moment and 13Â°C

JohnGaul
NZTS

Snowlover · Unread post by **Snowlover** » Wed 06/06/2007 21:47

So what is the chance of this happening for canterbury guys? Im not good at reading models

Im guessing we will have to wait a few more weeks to get snow here? Better not snow in chch while im in oz in july!!!!

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Wed 06/06/2007 22:16

Still currently 14.7 deg with a strong NW blowing.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 06/06/2007 22:35

Snowlover wrote:So what is the chance of this happening for canterbury guys?

Cold and windy yes, very likely. Snow on the western ranges to moderately low levels, yes, very likely. Snow on the Plains, unlikely, but with the proviso that the temperatures may be able to support it if the dynamics of the system change (given that the models have been fairly consistent for the last few days, I consider this unlikely as well). Still, the odds are somewhat better than they have been for the last few weeks!

dija · Unread post by **dija** » Wed 06/06/2007 22:42

Yesterday: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/stor ... d=10443572

...scientists from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research say there is little sign of a cold snap in the next couple of months.

Today: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/sto ... d=10443956

The whole country is set for a temperature drop as a cold snap sweeps up from the south.
Forecasters say winter will fully kick in as the week continues, spelling an end to a mild autumn.

Also, LOL. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/stor ... d=10443866

New Zealand's climate forecasts are as reliable as the toss of a coin, research by climate scientists shows.

The Climate Science Coalition claims its study of seasonal weather predictions by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research shows they are only right about half the time.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 06/06/2007 23:03

I don't read that paper. It's too far away from us here in the south island. Probably as not as right wing as our local paper, The Press

JohnGaul
NZTS

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 06/06/2007 23:16

dija wrote:Yesterday: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/stor ... d=10443572
...scientists from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research say there is little sign of a cold snap in the next couple of months.

Today: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/sto ... d=10443956

The whole country is set for a temperature drop as a cold snap sweeps up from the south.
Forecasters say winter will fully kick in as the week continues, spelling an end to a mild autumn.

Also, LOL. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/stor ... d=10443866

New Zealand's climate forecasts are as reliable as the toss of a coin, research by climate scientists shows.

The Climate Science Coalition claims its study of seasonal weather predictions by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research shows they are only right about half the time.

You should refer to the other thread for more info. and comment. Re that first quote: that's not what NIWA said, that's just "reporterese". Any predictions are about the overall winter temps., not the incidence of cold snaps.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 06/06/2007 23:25

Great explanation Tony,it is really hard to know what may happen until the actual time.
I think there is a better chance of perhaps some hail and sleet showers On Friday morning, but if there is snow let there be

.
I do think it is about time down south got some good snowfalls as it has been rather quiet down there over the last 3-4 years, so I hope all goes well for you all.
I was kind of expecting to see a strong gusty Westerly today but instead stuck with a cool NE wind for the whole day which kept the temperature around 15C.
Edit.. But a strong gusty westerly has just hit in the last 10 minutes and the temp has gone back up

.
Cheers
Jason.

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Thu 07/06/2007 07:46

Good strong cool wind blowing I sense (to quote Fujita phil) office kudos level dropping.. currently5.3deg.

NZ Weather Forum

Cold snap June 7th-9th may not be as bad as first thought

lol

Re: lol