Interesting depression Thursday June 21

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jrj
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Interesting depression Thursday June 21

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Last edited by jrj on Tue 19/06/2007 17:23, edited 1 time in total.
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TonyT
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Unread post by TonyT »

If you can get your head around the northern hemisphere rotations, this is interesting background:

http://www2.ncsu.edu/eos/service/pams/m ... index.html
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

must be a typo on the met service severe weather outlook:
Snow will probably fall to lower levels in Fiordland Auckland and Otago on Friday as southwesterlies rise to gale in many parts of the country and people are advised to keep up to date with weather forecasts.
i think they mean southland instead of auckland? ;) :D
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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

Manukau heads observer wrote:must be a typo on the met service severe weather outlook:
Snow will probably fall to lower levels in Fiordland Auckland and Otago on Friday as southwesterlies rise to gale in many parts of the country and people are advised to keep up to date with weather forecasts.
i think they mean southland instead of auckland? ;) :D
Snow no but SW Gales yes
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Manukau heads obs
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the models will chop and change some more yet
its about time we had some big winds up this way
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

...that's global warming for yer... :roll:

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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Re looking at some models could do, especially as ECMWF have a 1000hPa line very well far to the top over of the NI :-k mid week with a very strong cold SW flow over NZ :)

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Unread post by Fujita Phil »

I'm fearing how westerly the flow will be and will there be enough moisture in it? But plenty of time to wait for that to be answered yet
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Watch out for a warm advective snow to low levels set up with this next low. Just a chance it could happen somewhere possibly upper east of SI.

I'm hoping for a decent dump of snow on the Ruapehu region from this next system as I would like to do a trip down there.
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Unread post by jrj »

[quote="NZ Thunderstorm Soc"]...that's global warming for yer... :roll:

Nah.....think it's more to do with an over-reliance on technology!
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Unread post by spwill »

I'm fearing how westerly the flow will be and will there be enough moisture in it?
Moisture will only be a problem if you have a Mnt Range in the way, looks wintry Southerly later in the week :D nice Ridge moving in.
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Unread post by gllitz »

NZstorm wrote:Watch out for a warm advective snow to low levels set up with this next low. Just a chance it could happen somewhere possibly upper east of SI.

I'm hoping for a decent dump of snow on the Ruapehu region from this next system as I would like to do a trip down there.
Good on ya, Steven, the MS agree with you:

On Thursday, this front is expected to spread south into the cold frosty air affecting the eastern South Island. There could therefore be some snow to low levels in Marlborough, Canterbury, and Otago. However, the risk that snow amounts will reach warning criteria is considered minimal at this stage.
:-)

We'll see...here's hoping...

.
.
.
(aside) and one other thing I have noticed...the big low to the east of Chatham Islands is actually moving quite distinctly in a WSWerly direction...

http://amrc.ssec.wisc.edu/compmovie.html
(high bw needed!)
...I personally haven't seen THAT before, but I am sure it happens every now and then...
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Unread post by Snowlover »

so there is a chance of some snow in chch? therefore maybe be snowed in and wouldn't be able to go to my exam for financial accounting on Friday? Here's hoping lol
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Unread post by gllitz »

Snowlover wrote:so there is a chance of some snow in chch? therefore maybe be snowed in and wouldn't be able to go to my exam for financial accounting on Friday? Here's hoping lol
I didn't say that...you did :-) ...I personally don't think there will be, tho...too warm.
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Unread post by mikestormchaser »

awww come on! let it snow! hehe
bring on winter and the snow here in Christchurch/ Canterbury as my saying should go! so heres hoping something amazing will happen! :D :x
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Unread post by gopolks »

tornadoman18 wrote:awww come on! let it snow! hehe
bring on winter and the snow here in Christchurch/ Canterbury as my saying should go! so heres hoping something amazing will happen! :D :x
As the great Calvin from Calvin and Hobbes once said

"Pray to the snow demons, they are the ones that make it snow"
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

It can't snow on Christchurch until July, i'm sorry [-(

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Unread post by gopolks »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:It can't snow on Christchurch until July, i'm sorry [-(

JohnGaul
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Why is that? :cry:
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Nice winters frost this morning -2C in Christchurch I heard, and stayed cold for most of the day too with a southerly breeze.
Noticed a car this afternoon parked on the side of the road in Christchurch which had a layer of snow on it :lol: must have been stuck up one of the passes since saturday or a high elevated mountain along the alps.
There was alot of snow on the alps today and wouldn't surprise me that a vehicle made it all the way back to Christchurch with snow still on it with temperatures under 10C today.
This Low looks interesting but we will live in hope that the models stay good or improve ( in our terms ;) ).
Anyone having problems with the GFS models?
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Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Jasestrm wrote:Nice winters frost this morning -2C in Christchurch I heard, and stayed cold for most of the day too with a southerly breeze.

Cheers
Jason.
was it cold or what! lol was freezing today, after that frost, the cloud cover came in, trapping the cold air underneath so it was pretty much acting like a lid of a pot! :lol: my hands were virtually red/blue soon did warm up this afternoon though
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

gopolks wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:It can't snow on Christchurch until July, i'm sorry [-(

JohnGaul
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Why is that? :cry:
It snowed in June last year
The year before it was August
This year it must be July?????? :) [-X 8-[
....and we still haven't got the fires in yet :x :evil:
also the AGA but hopefully that should be before the colder weather later this week. ](*,)

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Unread post by Storm Struck »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
gopolks wrote: Why is that? :cry:
It snowed in June last year
The year before it was August
This year it must be July?????? :) [-X 8-[
....and we still haven't got the fires in yet :x :evil:
also the AGA but hopefully that should be before the colder weather later this week. ](*,)

JohnGaul
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Isnt that more reason for more events then John ;) better than boring weather huh :P .
It was June last year September in 2005 and August 2004.
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Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Here's reminiscing...
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Unread post by gllitz »

So what are some of the differences b/w this coming system and the system of June 12 2006? Not moving as fast? Pressure not dropping as fast? NOT that I want nor am I suggesting there will be another dump and the chaos which ensued...no one wants that (except the skiiers, of course, provided they can get to the ski fields)

Also not enough cold air at the surface prior to the event?
Just curious, as it is looking pretty similar so far....


EDIT:
For the second day in a row the M/S have issued this as part of their SWO:

Part of the low is likely to spread rain into some eastern South Island districts on Thursday, falling into the cold frosty air there. There could therefore be some snow to low levels in Marlborough, Canterbury, and Otago. However, the risk that amounts will reach warning criteria is considered minimal at this stage.

...uhhhm...define 'minimal'?
Last edited by gllitz on Tue 19/06/2007 15:10, edited 1 time in total.
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