Another Tasman Low last week of June

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 30/06/2007 10:15

NZstorm wrote:I am a sceptic regards those numbers...I suspect ski fields exaggerate a bit about current conditions to get people going up there.

DING! DING! DING! We have a winner!

Remember 2005, when Queenstown fields were telling overseas tourists to come ski on their fabulous snow, only for visitors to find little but icy gravel?

Even the Wanaka skifields complained about the lack of ethics and business sense that demonstrated. As they rightly pointed-out, the Queenstown fields' gain was short-term: the tourists remember such crap.

Japan's ski resorts in Hokkaido were overrun with both snow and Australian skiers this year...

But then again, maybe Cardrona and Treble Cone did get good falls overnight.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sat 30/06/2007 10:22

Yep completely agree.

Strange how Wanaka ski areas got snow but Queenstown got rain?

But Treble Cone especially the top gets the most snow from fronts coming in from the north and west.

Also the weathzone modles are predicting more tasmen lows, unsettled to mid July. There must be some more snow coming

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 30/06/2007 10:23

The freezing level at Invercargill was 2400m last night. Treble Cone ski field is 1300 to 1800m elevation. Thats why I am suprised by that report. If it is correct there must be some real localised freak cold pooling effect over that area.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 30/06/2007 10:25

Andy wrote:There must be some more snow coming

Hahaha...you know we're going to hold you to that, right?

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sat 30/06/2007 10:29

Gary Roberts wrote:
Andy wrote:There must be some more snow coming
Hahaha...you know we're going to hold you to that, right?

bring it on

Wildland · Unread post by **Wildland** » Sat 30/06/2007 11:07

Steady rain here at Tawa, north of Wellington, overnight.
23 mm since midnight. Similar figures at Mana and Redwood.
The steady rate is allowing the rain to soak in - just what the plants need.
The temperature of 12.9C is a vast improvement on Thursday, too.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 30/06/2007 16:25

unusually warm today here in Christchurch, i think the winds are light NW at the moment.
Only going down too around 7C so wont be cold either tonight

cheers

planez · Unread post by **planez** » Sat 30/06/2007 16:39

G'day I'm a new member

1mm rain = 1 cm fresh snow

T.C did get 35 cm + of snow right down to 1000 msl
Cardrona, 15 cms
Regretables - 2cms but Concrete Peak was saturated

Also Porter Heights in inland Canterbury got 6 cms before it turned to rain, but Mt Hutt which is higher and not in a sheltered basin had its snow pack saturated now looks real bare

gonna take a miracle now for Mt Cheeseman, Broken River etc to open

http://www.snow.co.nz/snowreports/report_index.asp

With a free air freezing level so high, and damp, cold air below, why was there no freezing rain?

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Sat 30/06/2007 17:02

Apprently, it got up to 19 degrees in ChCh today. That is just plain nuts, for the last day of June.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 30/06/2007 17:44

planez wrote:G'day I'm a new member

Hi, and thanks for the info. I'm surprised that Treble Cone and Cardrona got that much snow, but hey, weirder things have happened!

With a free air freezing level so high, and damp, cold air below, why was there no freezing rain?

The air wasn't that cold. Temperatures were amazingly high for the area at this time of year. I guess the moisture simply couldn't freeze. (Except at Treble Cone, apparently.)

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sat 30/06/2007 18:10

With a free air freezing level so high, and damp, cold air below, why was there no freezing rain?

There was in Central Otago, rain froze as it hit the ground, making driving trencherous.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 30/06/2007 18:30

Andy wrote:
With a free air freezing level so high, and damp, cold air below, why was there no freezing rain?
There was in Central Otago, rain froze as it hit the ground, making driving trencherous.

We had very slippery roads too that morning, but I'm still trying to figure out whether it was rain freezing on the cold surface, or if it was snow which had fallen shortly before which was then thawed by the subsequent rain and higher temps, which became all slippery and slushy.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 30/06/2007 18:58

T.C did get 35 cm + of snow right down to 1000 msl

Hi Planez, I still don't believe this report.

Slight chance of thunder tomorrow here in Auckland if the moisture holds on a bit. Upper air will be really cooling off tomorrow.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 30/06/2007 19:13

NZstorm wrote:Hi Planez, I still don't believe this report.

Slight chance of thunder tomorrow here in Auckland if the moisture holds on a bit. Upper air will be really cooling off tomorrow.

Some good lightning action happening offshore from Dunedin at the moment.

http://www.observatory.org.nz/Temp/screen.png

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 30/06/2007 19:14

Slight chance of thunder tomorrow here in Auckland if the moisture holds on a bit.

and Monday perhaps a better chance.

Looks like a few Cb's developing out in the Tasman now.
http://webflash.ess.washington.edu/L_pl ... er_map.jpg

planez · Unread post by **planez** » Sat 30/06/2007 21:20

Last Snow Fall: Sat, 30 June, 39cm

ice rain in alex - cool!

"Its been snowing for the last 24hrs and now its eased back. Today promises some good turns in the upper Home basin with powder snow conditions and fine mild temperatures."

- T.C sat morn

http://www.snow.co.nz/snowreports/snowr ... skiArea=32

- lol snowing and mild temperatures. brilliant

Metservice's rural 10 day forecast recons "Snow with light winds." for Otago in general on the 7th July, lets hope we don't have to wait that long for white hills.

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... =farmotago

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 30/06/2007 21:40

planez wrote:"Its been snowing for the last 24hrs and now its eased back. Today promises some good turns in the upper Home basin with powder snow conditions and fine mild temperatures."

I guess that amongst many of us there's a natural suspicion of the claims made by skifield operators due to their track record of exaggeration or outright, erm...fibs...

Metservice's rural 10 day forecast recons "Snow with light winds." for Otago in general on the 7th July, lets hope we don't have to wait that long for white hills.

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... =farmotago

Hmmm, I hadn't seen that forecast before. It sounds interesting. With all the rain we've had, and forecast still to come, there's a hell of a lot of lost snow to make up for, and I have my doubts we're in for the necessary "big one".

But then I've been wrong before (refer 12/06/06...) so who knows? Anyway, not too long to wait to find out!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 01/07/2007 11:12

Last Snow Fall: Sat, 30 June, 39cm

But no sign of new snow on the lower Mnt if you look at their web cam.
http://www.snow.co.nz/snowreports/snowr ... skiArea=32

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sun 01/07/2007 11:22

spwill wrote:
Last Snow Fall: Sat, 30 June, 39cm
But no sign of new snow on the lower Mnt if you look at their web cam.
http://www.snow.co.nz/snowreports/snowr ... skiArea=32

Geez, you'd think they'd at least have Photoshopped their webcam pics, huh?!

"...extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." - Carl Sagan

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Sun 01/07/2007 12:37

Yep one would not want to be paying big money to ski the tussoks/rocks and scree currently on offer. Id suggest that the fields may not know how to use photoshop but they certainly know how to spin a good tail.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sun 01/07/2007 12:42

Janos wrote:Yep one would not want to be paying big money to ski the tussoks/rocks and scree currently on offer. Id suggest that the fields may not know how to use photoshop but they certainly know how to spin a good tail.

Heheh. My wife was visiting friends who manage a small ski resort in Hokkaido, during their spring. She says it was like Sydney, apart from the 4 metre-deep snowdrifts, and having to dig the rental car out every morning. So many ockers running around the place.

I firmly believe the NZ/SI ski business lost a lot of goodwill and trade during the 2004 & 2005 seasons. There was a big influx of Aussies to overseas skifields soon after those years. A pity.

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Sun 01/07/2007 13:15

[Heheh. My wife was visiting friends who manage a small ski resort in Hokkaido, during their spring. She says it was like Sydney, apart from the 4 metre-deep snowdrifts, and having to dig the rental car out every morning. So many ockers running around the place.quote] Yes you are so right Gary
A friend of mine whose brother in law worked in Japan woke up one morning in Nagano to 1.1 metre of snow...there first snowfall of the season.
Not unusal either but i guess with Siberia to the West and the sea of Japn for fuel your onto a sure winner there.

But none the less the NZ ski industries morals are sometimes questionable ..but at there ultimate cost.

GSVNoFixedAbode · Unread post by **GSVNoFixedAbode** » Sun 01/07/2007 14:33

I signed up for snow-forecasting.com emails for the Cardrona field some time ago and they tend to be fairly accurate with their model (can't claim to know what they use!).

Latest email is showing 2-3cm Monday evening, but then an 11cm dump Tuesday night with some cold temps as well. Fingers crossed!

planez · Unread post by **planez** » Sun 01/07/2007 14:41

photoshop on snowreports aye - what a bunch of conspiracy theorists we have here!

SWO Threat Situation valid from Tuesday 03-Jul-2007 to Friday 06-Jul-2007
Issued by MetService at 1:13pm Sunday 01st July 2007

During Tuesday and Wednesday, forecasters expect a broad trough to cross the country, followed on Thursday by a narrow ridge.

A low deepens in the central Tasman Sea on Thursday, and then extends a trough over the North Island. Moist northeasterlies could bring some heavy rain to Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, also northwest Nelson on Friday. However, the risk that rainfalls will reach warning criteria is low at this stage.

Cold air could be spreading over the South Island on Thursday, and rain on the southern side of the trough could turn to snow to low levels in Marlborough and Canterbury on Friday. The risk that warnable amounts of snow will eventuate is only low.

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... heroutlook

What do you fellas recon for sno? METVUW is showing just light rain for the region during thursday but fridat looks interesting with a moist Easterly flow

cheers

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 01/07/2007 15:21

[quote What do you fellas recon for sno? METVUW is showing just light rain for the region during thursday but fridat looks interesting with a moist Easterly flow [/quote]

Can be hard to forecast when lows are involved. But situation could easily be right for low level snow in Canterbury and Malborough. (probably Kaikoura Coast, but unlikely to be your part of Marlborough, Planez)