Another Tasman Low last week of June

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Thu 28/06/2007 10:25

KarshvardidgÃ¢h wrote:Good Morning Gopolks,
Thanks for that, we might get some precipitation though do you think

Yep, Maybe a couple of short sharp bursts.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Thu 28/06/2007 11:56

Just in

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND AUCKLAND WAIKATO BAY OF PLENTY GISBORNE TARANAKI NELSON MARLBOROUGH WESTLAND ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1153hrs 28-Jun-2007

A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY FOR MT TARANAKI COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY, NORTHERN GISBORNE, NORTHERN MARLBOROUGH AND WESTLAND WATCH FOR NELSON UPGRADED TO A WARNING LARGE RAINFALLS NOW LESS LIKELY FOR NORTHLAND AND AUCKLAND

MetService continues to monitor the progress of a large low over the western Tasman Sea. The low is expected to edge closer to New Zealand during Friday with a front in a strong, moist northeast flow heading towards western districts by late Friday and crossing the country on Saturday. The front is likely to bring rain to many places, with heaviest falls in places exposed to the north or northeast.

Forecasters are expecting heavy rain in the northwest Nelson ranges from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning and the watch for that area has been upgraded to a warning.

Rain is also likely to become heavy for a time in Westland from late Friday to about dawn on Saturday, then clearing for a time, but further rainy spells are likely there later on Saturday and on Sunday.

In the North Island, heaviest rain is likely to be about Mt Taranaki from Friday evening to late Saturday morning, and about the ranges of Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of plenty and northern Gisborne on Saturday from early morning to late afternoon.

In Northland and Auckland there is now less chance of rainfall reaching warning criteria and the watch is lifted for those areas.

Forecasters advise people in the areas under watch to keep up to date with the latest forecast and warnings.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9am Friday 29 June 2007 Forecast prepared by: Bob Lake

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2007

kiwisk8er · Unread post by **kiwisk8er** » Thu 28/06/2007 13:21

It got down to -4.5C this morning at tainui, dunedin. Apparently got down to -8C at the airport. Brrrrr!

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Thu 28/06/2007 13:42

I notice this morning that the entire Andersons bay inlet (part salt water) had frozen over from side to side. Its a big area shows how cold it got.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 28/06/2007 13:56

wow, thats amazing, re the inlet freezing like that!

another nice sunrise this morning up this way (shows up nicely the high cirrus cloud cover)

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Thu 28/06/2007 14:18

Nice picture Graham

.I agree it must of been really cold to freeze that inlet.

TokWW · Unread post by **TokWW** » Thu 28/06/2007 14:19

-1ÂºC frost this morning (just...) but that early morning warning was there alright... The afternoon temp has just reached 10Âº as Tich had said with a full cloud cover.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 28/06/2007 14:54

TonyT wrote:
03Stormchaser wrote:Was hoping for fine and frosty for the weekend as Im going tramping in the arthurs pass for a few days.
Don't!

Going Sunday-Mon-Tueday now, thought maybe the weather over saturday night not that flash.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 28/06/2007 15:39

Ah, the power of the forecast!

I think I need a lie down.

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Thu 28/06/2007 16:25

TonyT wrote:Ah, the power of the forecast!

I think I need a lie down.

<Darth Vader voice> "You don't know the POWER of the weather forecaster!"

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 28/06/2007 16:54

Andrew Massie wrote:
TonyT wrote:Ah, the power of the forecast!

I think I need a lie down.
<Darth Vader voice> "You don't know the POWER of the weather forecaster!"

A metservice forcast mind you!

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 28/06/2007 17:31

03Stormchaser wrote:A metservice forcast mind you!

I'm going for another lie down.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 28/06/2007 20:27

With the cold temperatures over NZ persisting and the rainband approaching from the west, I wouldn't be surprised if warm advective snowfall occurs in inland parts of the South Island tomorrow. That was in the long-range forecast until a few days ago. But it has happened before when not forecast, eg in June 2004.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 28/06/2007 20:49

I wouldn't be surprised if warm advective snowfall occurs in inland parts of the South Island tomorrow

Pre-frontal thicknesses are looking a tad high for that to happen Tich (both Invercargill and Paraparam 5450 0000Z today. Looks like an injection of milder air across the country for this weekend will annoy the ski field operators trying to make snow with the school holidays starting. But turns colder again early week with a very cold outbreak knocking on the door of the South Island next week.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 28/06/2007 20:57

Hopefully in time when we finally get the fires in

JohnGaul
NZTS

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Thu 28/06/2007 21:24

tich wrote:With the cold temperatures over NZ persisting and the rainband approaching from the west, I wouldn't be surprised if warm advective snowfall occurs in inland parts of the South Island tomorrow. That was in the long-range forecast until a few days ago. But it has happened before when not forecast, eg in June 2004.

Yep may well happend. Alot of cold air in Central Otago.

The Cromwell basin and Lake Wanaka were below freezing all day under low cloud inversion. Max today in Alex only 3.8Â°c with cloud increasing all day and weak sunshine.

Temp ATM -1.5Â° under full cloud cover.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 28/06/2007 21:38

Looks like low pressures will be in for much of next week as this low becomes messy and lingers on, sadly

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Thu 28/06/2007 21:59

just thinking out loud here,.....but that low out east has pushed a heck of alot of shower cloud along way north.....which is starting to come back down this way around the top of the high....i.e there is quite a bit of cool moist air that is going to be underneath the warm moist air coming down from the north tasman,,,,i.e the approaching warm front for the NI could be a rather wet one

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 28/06/2007 22:30

Immmmmmmmmmmmmm

Interesting thinking there, Brian

JohnGaul
NZTS

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 28/06/2007 23:36

tich wrote:With the cold temperatures over NZ persisting and the rainband approaching from the west, I wouldn't be surprised if warm advective snowfall occurs in inland parts of the South Island tomorrow. That was in the long-range forecast until a few days ago. But it has happened before when not forecast, eg in June 2004.

It would seem the metservice are listening...latest forecast out at 11ish tonight says this:

Canterbury, Otago and Southland
High cloud increasing. Icy until dawn. Scattered rain spreading from the west, possibly with brief light snow in inland basins.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 29/06/2007 02:07

It would seem the metservice are listening...latest forecast out at 11ish tonight says this:

Canterbury, Otago and Southland
High cloud increasing. Icy until dawn. Scattered rain spreading from the west, possibly with brief light snow in inland basins.

I thought they might add a bit of the white stuff to the forecast, since it's still so icy in inland parts of the SI. I don't think the thickness level/free air freezing levels need to be particularly low for it to happen, going on past events.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Fri 29/06/2007 07:20

Very mild (0.3 Â°C) and raining lightly in the Mackenzie this morning, after a very light dusting of snow, which is now being washed away.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 29/06/2007 08:05

I don't think the thickness level/free air freezing levels need to be particularly low for it to happen, going on past events.

No, but as I stated earlier, just a bit on the warm side for inland snow given the freezing level/thicknesses are quite high for June. Freezing level 2500m atm!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 29/06/2007 08:13

the approaching warm front for the NI could be a rather wet one

Dp's at Norfolk Island 17-18C. So quite a humid warm sector to that low.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Fri 29/06/2007 08:15

Light rain falling, temp -0.6Â°.
Black ice in Central please drive with care.