Another Tasman Low last week of June

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 26/06/2007 16:25

Was hoping for fine and frosty for the weekend as Im going tramping in the arthurs pass for a few days.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 26/06/2007 16:48

03Stormchaser wrote:Was hoping for fine and frosty for the weekend as Im going tramping in the arthurs pass for a few days.

Don't!

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Tue 26/06/2007 16:49

Surely those lows by perth are going to bring some stuff in, in about a week?

From the Aussie Met site.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Tue 26/06/2007 19:43

It looks pretty messy, with that series of low depressions which could pull in some really cold air from the antartic. And if the jet stream sits over us we could get a few moderate accumulations of snow but it depends on how the depressions look closer to the time.It's the low depression out in the Tasman in the picture below from METVUW that has me thinking,will it deepen further?

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 26/06/2007 20:36

Another interesting Low to watch indeed, just depends on how deep it goes and where it ends up crossing over NZ.
There could be a chance for snow to relativly low levels going by what I have said above and there is a keen southerly following the NE flow.
Heavy rain more on the cards here at this stage and much needed too.
Yesterday I was trying to find the thread about that Low that crossed the south island around April,May last year which brought a very breif unexpected snowfall to sea level but didnt settle

.
That probly doesnt help all I can remember is that it was around April and it fell on a sunday night as the low crossed, this was definatly before the big one in June.
Cheers
Jason.

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Tue 26/06/2007 21:26

Jasestrm wrote: Yesterday I was trying to find the thread about that Low that crossed the south island around April,May last year which brought a very breif unexpected snowfall to sea level but didnt settle .
That probly doesnt help all I can remember is that it was around April and it fell on a sunday night as the low crossed, this was definatly before the big one in June.
Cheers
Jason.

15 May 2006 - Lewis Pass as I was driving through, could be the one?

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Tue 26/06/2007 22:55

TonyT wrote:
03Stormchaser wrote:Was hoping for fine and frosty for the weekend as Im going tramping in the arthurs pass for a few days.
Don't!

Yeah 03, I agree with Tony.. seriously. Helicopters don't fly in crappy weather !

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Tue 26/06/2007 23:17

Only got one satellite picture from NOAA

,there are none in the archive for the 14th May as the low crossed but you can see the cold showers off the West coast clearly as it moves away to the East.
Cheers for that.

http://satellite.landcareresearch.co.nz ... 056.txt+lp

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 26/06/2007 23:22

It was actually on Sunday 14th May 2006 that the low crossed with a breif flaking for about 20 mins.
Here is the thread during the time of the reports of sleet and snow.
http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/forum/vi ... &start=160
Cheers
Jason.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Wed 27/06/2007 08:26

Thanks for that Jason,noticed in that post we had snow in CHCH on 19 Sept 2005

Gllitz Posted:

Sun 14/05/2006 20:14>I recall, actually, you (pretty sure it was you?) wrote a post back in SEP last year right before the Sep 19th snow about snow conditions for here in Canterbury...something like the 500MB thickness needs to be below 530 and the 850MB temp at -4C or colder with plenty of humidity to get "squeezed" out by the cold air<

I Got a good satallite picture of the system on that day from NOAA archive. http://satellite.landcareresearch.co.nz ... d19095.txt

Cheers

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Wed 27/06/2007 10:16

Getting good formations over the Tasman,you can see both troughs on this satallite.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 27/06/2007 12:15

yes very impressive frontal systems in the tasman
i see metservice have a watch out now and mention threatening looking situation!
i see the parent low is looping back into australia at the moment

TokWW · Unread post by **TokWW** » Wed 27/06/2007 13:39

One day of grace remaining...

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Wed 27/06/2007 15:53

I'm a bit confused...the GFS model and the MetVUW forecasts both show a bunch of rain heading for CHCH this FRI/SAT and it hasn't even been mentioned in the M/S forecast yet???

EDIT: Not to mention the CRT forecasts have the rain coming, too...hmmm...M/S??

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 27/06/2007 17:03

gllitz wrote:I'm a bit confused...the GFS model and the MetVUW forecasts both show a bunch of rain heading for CHCH this FRI/SAT and it hasn't even been mentioned in the M/S forecast yet???

EDIT: Not to mention the CRT forecasts have the rain coming, too...hmmm...M/S??

They're probably all sitting around in the Met Service lunchroom arguing about the America's Cup.

Paul Mallinson · Unread post by **Paul Mallinson** » Wed 27/06/2007 17:40

First things first eh? Let's deal with the northerly rain first!

Paul

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 27/06/2007 17:48

Gary Roberts wrote:
gllitz wrote:I'm a bit confused...the GFS model and the MetVUW forecasts both show a bunch of rain heading for CHCH this FRI/SAT and it hasn't even been mentioned in the M/S forecast yet???

EDIT: Not to mention the CRT forecasts have the rain coming, too...hmmm...M/S??
They're probably all sitting around in the Met Service lunchroom arguing about the America's Cup.

and possibly drinking a latte!

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 27/06/2007 17:51

03Stormchaser wrote:...and possibly drinking a latte!

Wait, I thought Auckland was Latteland...so who drinks the Frappuchinos?

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 27/06/2007 17:53

Gary Roberts wrote:
03Stormchaser wrote:...and possibly drinking a latte!
Wait, I thought Auckland was Latteland...

The North Island Is Latteland!

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Wed 27/06/2007 18:02

High cloud now increasing to the northwest here in Auckland, getting pretty dim with the setting sun. Almost couldn't see to use my cellphone / PDA / PGD while driving home tonight.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 27/06/2007 18:29

will be a cold raw start to the day with cold overnight temperatures and then high cloud cover to block the sun in the morning , stopping things warming up

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 27/06/2007 18:54

03Stormchaser wrote:
Gary Roberts wrote: Wait, I thought Auckland was Latteland...

The North Island Is Latteland!

Ah! Of course! They drink Fruppuchinos in Queenstown! How silly of me...

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 27/06/2007 19:09

Only 7pm and already down to 1C

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 27/06/2007 19:18

03Stormchaser wrote:Only 7pm and already down to 1C

Its going to be one heck of a frost.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 27/06/2007 19:23

gopolks wrote:
03Stormchaser wrote:Only 7pm and already down to 1C
Its going to be one heck of a frost.

You said it!