Another Tasman Low last week of June
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Another Tasman Low last week of June
ECMWF have yet another deepening depression in the Tasman sea from about mid-next week, this time this one, at the moment, moving south instead of towards NZ like the current one and the one previous.
Interesting to see how it affects NZ weather after the next anticyclone moves over early next week and possibly blocks to the SE of the country.
JohnGaul
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Interesting to see how it affects NZ weather after the next anticyclone moves over early next week and possibly blocks to the SE of the country.
JohnGaul
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Re: Another Tasman Low Next Week
Fine weather and possibly milder weathergopolks wrote:What does this system mean for Christchurch?
JohnGaul
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Re: Another Tasman Low Next Week
So apart from Monday, isnt the fine weather suppose to last in chch for at least another two weeks?NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Fine weather and possibly milder weathergopolks wrote:What does this system mean for Christchurch?
JohnGaul
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I love the look of this system! An abundance amount of moisture on it's way with a warm atmosphere... looks like those dewpoints will be creeping up to 17°C over the Far North.
The prognostic at this stage could potentially suggest a similar flooding event like over the Bay of Islands earlier this year.
ECMWF then goes for a period of disturbed westerlies over the country.
A bit far out but the consensus is great.
The prognostic at this stage could potentially suggest a similar flooding event like over the Bay of Islands earlier this year.
ECMWF then goes for a period of disturbed westerlies over the country.
A bit far out but the consensus is great.
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Yes could be an event for much of NZ coming indeed, the latest GFS have 3 lows linked right across and under Australia with cool to cold air right across although these are Australian models.
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/g ... l_aus.html
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/g ... l_aus.html
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Re: Another Tasman Low Next Week
Nice... looking forward to itNZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Fine weather and possibly milder weathergopolks wrote:What does this system mean for Christchurch?
JohnGaul
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There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
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As the low moves down ,could the flow turn southerly and conbined with the moist warm air bring further large snow falls?
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Last edited by Lawrence on Tue 26/06/2007 13:39, edited 2 times in total.
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i think that would only happen with a low coming in from the tasman that is replacing a departing low and its cold southerly outbreak
in this case we have a high pressure in between
but there will be frosty cold air...but it will get blown away by the strong NE flow ahead of this low, because of the high pressure to the east.....against having a low come in with no pressure to the east and so no NE winds to push out the cold air left behind
in this case we have a high pressure in between
but there will be frosty cold air...but it will get blown away by the strong NE flow ahead of this low, because of the high pressure to the east.....against having a low come in with no pressure to the east and so no NE winds to push out the cold air left behind
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Maybe more snow for the South Island.Valid: Thu 28 June to Sun 01 July
Issued: Tue 26 June 2007 at 0204 pm
SWO Threat Situation valid from Thursday 28-Jun-2007 to Sunday 01-Jul-2007
Issued by MetService at 1:51pm Tuesday 26th June 2007
A large high should cross New Zealand during Thursday, bringing fine and very frosty weather. Meanwhile, a deep low will be moving onto the central Tasman Sea.
On Friday, MetService expects a strong, moist northeast airstream ahead of the low to spread onto northern New Zealand. An active front in this flow is likely to bring rain to the far north by late Friday, then move across the remainder of the country during Saturday.
There is a moderate risk of heavy rain exceeding warning criteria in Northland late Friday and Saturday and in Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, northern Gisborne, Mt Taranaki, Nelson and northern Marlborough during Saturday.
There could also be some snow to low levels in some inland basins in Canterbury and Otago on Saturday morning as rain falls into still frosty air. However, the risk that amounts will reach warning criteria is considered minimal at this stage.
On Sunday the front should move away to the east, but showery weather is still likely in many places.
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Thanks foggy,very cold here in Christchurch too with wind chill. Very cloudy all day over the Banks, but clear here in the city.
Last edited by Lawrence on Tue 26/06/2007 15:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Yep could well do.Karshvardidgâh wrote:That mass coming over the Tasman looks really bad, I've got a hunch that it could cause some bad flooding up in the west of the north or top of the south
There is plenty of snow on the moutains and lower valley hills that could very well melt + Heavy warm rain = FLOOD