Another Tasman Low last week of June

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Another Tasman Low last week of June

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

ECMWF have yet another deepening depression in the Tasman sea from about mid-next week, this time this one, at the moment, moving south instead of towards NZ like the current one and the one previous.
Interesting to see how it affects NZ weather after the next anticyclone moves over early next week and possibly blocks to the SE of the country.

JohnGaul
NZTS
gopolks
Posts: 706
Joined: Thu 22/03/2007 16:48
Location: Canterbury
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Another Tasman Low Next Week

Unread post by gopolks »

What does this system mean for Christchurch?
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Another Tasman Low Next Week

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

gopolks wrote:What does this system mean for Christchurch?
Fine weather and possibly milder weather :)

JohnGaul
NZTS
gopolks
Posts: 706
Joined: Thu 22/03/2007 16:48
Location: Canterbury
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Another Tasman Low Next Week

Unread post by gopolks »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
gopolks wrote:What does this system mean for Christchurch?
Fine weather and possibly milder weather :)

JohnGaul
NZTS
So apart from Monday, isnt the fine weather suppose to last in chch for at least another two weeks? :(
User avatar
Willoughby
Site Admin
Posts: 4433
Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city
Has thanked: 264 times
Been thanked: 288 times
Contact:

Unread post by Willoughby »

I love the look of this system! An abundance amount of moisture on it's way with a warm atmosphere... looks like those dewpoints will be creeping up to 17°C over the Far North.

The prognostic at this stage could potentially suggest a similar flooding event like over the Bay of Islands earlier this year.

ECMWF then goes for a period of disturbed westerlies over the country.

A bit far out but the consensus is great.
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Yes could be an event for much of NZ coming indeed, the latest GFS have 3 lows linked right across and under Australia with cool to cold air right across although these are Australian models.
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/g ... l_aus.html
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
Fujita Phil
Posts: 759
Joined: Wed 03/12/2003 15:44
Location: Dunedin, NZ
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 11 times
Contact:

Re: Another Tasman Low Next Week

Unread post by Fujita Phil »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
gopolks wrote:What does this system mean for Christchurch?
Fine weather and possibly milder weather :)

JohnGaul
NZTS
Nice... looking forward to it :D
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

sure is going to be the reverse of what we are getting now
and yes its going to be a big fetch of sub tropical moisture feed alright
will be good to get NE winds instead of WSW winds anyway!
looking forward to it :)
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

latest ecmwf run has this next low being replaced by another which is slow moving in the mid tasman...and so warm wet northerlies for NZ...with lots of rain in placs exposed to the north!
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
Andy
Posts: 1424
Joined: Tue 27/05/2003 14:15
Location: Alexandra
Has thanked: 131 times
Been thanked: 63 times

Unread post by Andy »

Differently worth watching.

Anybody have any ideas what is causing these lows to keep forming?
Gary Roberts
Posts: 2363
Joined: Sun 18/01/2004 18:59
Location: Omarama
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

Andy wrote:Differently worth watching.
You're different Andy...and special.

:twisted: :P
Andy
Posts: 1424
Joined: Tue 27/05/2003 14:15
Location: Alexandra
Has thanked: 131 times
Been thanked: 63 times

Unread post by Andy »

Gary Roberts wrote:
Andy wrote:Differently worth watching.
You're different Andy...and special.

:twisted: :P
Doh :P
User avatar
Willoughby
Site Admin
Posts: 4433
Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city
Has thanked: 264 times
Been thanked: 288 times
Contact:

Unread post by Willoughby »

Andy wrote:Differently worth watching.

Anybody have any ideas what is causing these lows to keep forming?
Hopefully this diagram I quickly drew makes some sense...
Image

That omega block south of the Australian continent is to be replaced by a big chain of westerlies shortly.
Gary Roberts
Posts: 2363
Joined: Sun 18/01/2004 18:59
Location: Omarama
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Hopefully this diagram I quickly drew makes some sense...
Dammit Foggy, you just gave me a migraine!

:twisted:
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Unread post by spwill »

A lot of rain for NSW but northern NZ rainfall is down so far for June.

Looks like we may get heavy rainfall later in the week (slow moving Front with a good moisture feed)
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I agree with your analysis their Foggy...I had noticed myself that the NW jet stream cloud sheet is actualy originating from the Indian sub continet Moonson which is firing nicely at the moment :)
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
Lawrence
Posts: 958
Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
Has thanked: 169 times
Been thanked: 68 times

Unread post by Lawrence »

As the low moves down ,could the flow turn southerly and conbined with the moist warm air bring further large snow falls? ;)
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by Lawrence on Tue 26/06/2007 13:39, edited 2 times in total.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i think that would only happen with a low coming in from the tasman that is replacing a departing low and its cold southerly outbreak
in this case we have a high pressure in between
but there will be frosty cold air...but it will get blown away by the strong NE flow ahead of this low, because of the high pressure to the east.....against having a low come in with no pressure to the east and so no NE winds to push out the cold air left behind
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
Lawrence
Posts: 958
Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
Has thanked: 169 times
Been thanked: 68 times

Unread post by Lawrence »

Looks like were in for a very damp few days this weekend or early next week then. :(
User avatar
Willoughby
Site Admin
Posts: 4433
Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city
Has thanked: 264 times
Been thanked: 288 times
Contact:

Unread post by Willoughby »

Welcome to the forum...

The temperature here hasn't got into double digits yet.. and I have a feeling it wont either. :o
tich
Posts: 3467
Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Unread post by tich »

The temperature here hasn't got into double digits yet.. and I have a feeling it wont either.
Still a very cold airmass over NZ - snow still expected to fall to 400m in central and lower North Island. Lack of moisture probably prevented more high country roads from closing due to snow.
Andy
Posts: 1424
Joined: Tue 27/05/2003 14:15
Location: Alexandra
Has thanked: 131 times
Been thanked: 63 times

Unread post by Andy »

Valid: Thu 28 June to Sun 01 July
Issued: Tue 26 June 2007 at 0204 pm

SWO Threat Situation valid from Thursday 28-Jun-2007 to Sunday 01-Jul-2007
Issued by MetService at 1:51pm Tuesday 26th June 2007

A large high should cross New Zealand during Thursday, bringing fine and very frosty weather. Meanwhile, a deep low will be moving onto the central Tasman Sea.

On Friday, MetService expects a strong, moist northeast airstream ahead of the low to spread onto northern New Zealand. An active front in this flow is likely to bring rain to the far north by late Friday, then move across the remainder of the country during Saturday.

There is a moderate risk of heavy rain exceeding warning criteria in Northland late Friday and Saturday and in Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, northern Gisborne, Mt Taranaki, Nelson and northern Marlborough during Saturday.

There could also be some snow to low levels in some inland basins in Canterbury and Otago on Saturday morning as rain falls into still frosty air. However, the risk that amounts will reach warning criteria is considered minimal at this stage.

On Sunday the front should move away to the east, but showery weather is still likely in many places.
Maybe more snow for the South Island.
User avatar
Lawrence
Posts: 958
Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
Has thanked: 169 times
Been thanked: 68 times

Unread post by Lawrence »

Thanks foggy,very cold here in Christchurch too with wind chill. Very cloudy all day over the Banks, but clear here in the city.
Last edited by Lawrence on Tue 26/06/2007 15:28, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Lawrence
Posts: 958
Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
Has thanked: 169 times
Been thanked: 68 times

Unread post by Lawrence »

That mass coming over the Tasman looks really bad, I've got a hunch that it could cause some bad flooding up in the west of the north or top of the south :cry:
Andy
Posts: 1424
Joined: Tue 27/05/2003 14:15
Location: Alexandra
Has thanked: 131 times
Been thanked: 63 times

Unread post by Andy »

Karshvardidgâh wrote:That mass coming over the Tasman looks really bad, I've got a hunch that it could cause some bad flooding up in the west of the north or top of the south :cry:
Yep could well do.

There is plenty of snow on the moutains and lower valley hills that could very well melt + Heavy warm rain = FLOOD :!:
Locked