TC Heta

[Manukau heads obs]

maps from:
http://www.met.gov.fj/sat-map.html

Special Advisory Number EIGHTEEN for Samoa on T HETA issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 05/0147 UTC 2004 UTC.




TROPICAL CYCLONE HETA [03F] CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 174.1W AT
050000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 09 KNOTS BUT ANTICIPATED TO TURN SOUTHEAST
AND ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS. WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE
47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF
CENTRE.

EYE NOW WELL-DEFINED AND WARMED FURTHER. OW EYE WITH CDG SURROUND YIELDS CF 6.5.
WITH EYE ADJ 0.5. YIELDS FINAL T7.0. MET IS 6 AND PT 6.5. DT KET AT 6.5 DUE
10-MINUTE AVERAGING. HENCE DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 050000 UTC YIELDS
T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE WEAKENING. HETA
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON BRIEFLY INTENSIFYING HETA FURTHER BEFORE
WEAKENIG. STEERING IS STILL TOWARDS SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051200UTC 15.4S 173.1W MOV SE AT 10KT WITH 125KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060000UTC 17.2S 171.5W MOV SE AT 12KT WITH 110KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061200UTC 19.5S 169.5W MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070000UTC 22.5S 166.5W MOV SE AT 20KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE SHOULD LIE ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SAVAI'I OR 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF APIA BY 050600 UTC AND WITHIN 150 MILES
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APIA BY 051800 UTC. EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE
WINDS OR STRONGER. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH
SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING ESPECIALLY ALONG LOW-LYING
COASTAL AREAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR SAMOA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 050810 UTC

[tich]

After doing alot of damage to Niue, it seems like Heta will move into subtropical latitudes and slow down. The GFS model actually has it moving westwards by about Monday - not coming anywhere near NZ, but probably close enough to benefit surfers in the northeast of the NI (eg Gisborne, BOP).

[Manukau heads obs]

and the model was correct, it did slow down and move west!