Tasman Low 3 Thursday 5th-Saturday 7th July, Snow watch!!!

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 04/07/2007 08:50

Nothing even remotely snow-like here in North Otago and the Mackenzie. Clear and cool, more like an early autumn day.

Looks like it's going to be TonyT's F I Z Z E R event after-all.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Wed 04/07/2007 09:07

I'm going for moderate snow in Canterbury some time from 00:01 Thursday to 12:00 noon Thursday $\:D/$ ,no snow for low levels on Friday,sleet showers on Saturday Morning.

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 04/07/2007 09:12

KarshvardidgÃ¢h wrote:I'm going for moderate snow in Canterbury some time from 00:01 Thursday to 12:00 noon Thursday $\:D/$ ,no snow for low levels on Friday,sleet showers on Saturday Morning.

Im guessing it will be a fizzer,but I hope your right, because it may be the last change for a while, there is the mother of all highs just about to hit western australia.

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 04/07/2007 09:14

The latest from fencepost says this (but its of course more inland canterbury)

Thursday: Snow to 200m, heavy falls possible

Friday 90% 5-10 Very cold Moderate SE Snow to 200m, heavy falls possible

Saturday 80% 1-3 Very cold Moderate SE Snow to 200m

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 04/07/2007 09:41

gopolks wrote:The latest from fencepost says this (but its of course more inland canterbury)

Thursday: Snow to 200m, heavy falls possible

Friday 90% 5-10 Very cold Moderate SE Snow to 200m, heavy falls possible

Saturday 80% 1-3 Very cold Moderate SE Snow to 200m

Thats yesterdays. The latest update will be on the site in an hour or two.

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 04/07/2007 09:46

TonyT wrote:
gopolks wrote:The latest from fencepost says this (but its of course more inland canterbury)

Thursday: Snow to 200m, heavy falls possible

Friday 90% 5-10 Very cold Moderate SE Snow to 200m, heavy falls possible

Saturday 80% 1-3 Very cold Moderate SE Snow to 200m
Thats yesterdays. The latest update will be on the site in an hour or two.

So Im guess they arent predicting that anymore?

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Wed 04/07/2007 09:56

Yep... it's looking more and more like a fizzer.. the North island might get some oomph, but the southernmost low pressure system seems to be weakening.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 04/07/2007 10:04

gopolks wrote:
TonyT wrote: Thats yesterdays. The latest update will be on the site in an hour or two.
So Im guess they arent predicting that anymore?

Things havent changed much, but the risk of heavy falls is somewhat less then yesterday. The snow forecasts I have sent out this morning are not too different from yesterdays.

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 04/07/2007 10:10

Andrew Massie wrote:Yep... it's looking more and more like a fizzer.. the North island might get some oomph, but the southernmost low pressure system seems to be weakening.

So any chance at all, of even light wet snow for chch?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 04/07/2007 10:11

gopolks wrote:
Andrew Massie wrote:Yep... it's looking more and more like a fizzer.. the North island might get some oomph, but the southernmost low pressure system seems to be weakening.
So any chance at all, of even light wet snow for chch?

In the city, probably not, although it may be sleety at times. On the Port Hills, yes, but falls will be light. Thats been the forecast from Blue Skies for the last 4 days, and remains so at present.

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 04/07/2007 10:29

BUGGER.

I think a trip up the port hills is in order.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Wed 04/07/2007 10:40

gopolks wrote:BUGGER.

I think a trip up the port hills is in order.

gopolks i think you need too think more positive on this, "Sure nothing might happen but then again it might.
I still believe we will see some of the white stuff esp tomorrow night, and i still have some confience .So a trip up the port hills may not be in need just yet ya know

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 04/07/2007 11:06

tornadoman18 wrote:
gopolks wrote:BUGGER.

I think a trip up the port hills is in order.
gopolks i think you need too think more positive on this, "Sure nothing might happen but then again it might.
I still believe we will see some of the white stuff esp tomorrow night, and i still have some confience .So a trip up the port hills may not be in need just yet ya know

Okay, your right, I will think positive thoughts, I will pray to the snow Demons and do a dance for the Snow Goons. (Fans of Calvin and Hobbes will understand)

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Wed 04/07/2007 11:46

Have just received the latest "met service advisory" doesnt sound like much of an event for Christchurch (in particular) at all.

Although they are still suggesting some snow inland and South of B.P along the East Coast.
Interestingly it is suggesting snow for Dunedin to sea level.

Anyway only time will tell.

Weather Watcher · Unread post by **Weather Watcher** » Wed 04/07/2007 11:54

Radar is showing a good organised squall line of thunderstorms moving towards Auckland. Should see them move over early this afternoon with hail (up to 10mm) and some good wind gusts (probably around 45kt, maybe even 50kt in a few places).

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 04/07/2007 12:06

Janos wrote:Have just received the latest "met service advisory" doesnt sound like much of an event for Christchurch (in particular) at all. Although they are still suggesting some snow inland and South of B.P along the East Coast.
Interestingly it is suggesting snow for Dunedin to sea level.
Anyway only time will tell.

Perhaps Im doing the wrong type of dance???

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 04/07/2007 12:11

They are now saying south WEST winds for chch over Thursday Friday and Saturday, so I would say Snow for the good people of Dunedin, and cold drizzly rain for CHCH.

Snowlover · Unread post by **Snowlover** » Wed 04/07/2007 12:27

Its going to snow!!!

it will snow!!!! Im confident on this one. Snow to sea level maybe not much but it will happen, those are my predictions

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 04/07/2007 13:06

Snowlover wrote:Its going to snow!!! it will snow!!!! Im confident on this one. Snow to sea level maybe not much but it will happen, those are my predictions

Well the latest on saturn weather channel , they updated 1059am, is, snow to sea level friday, and early saturday.

The metservice is saying rain with very cold southerlies.

nzcity.co.nz is all over the place.

The models are saying on top of the port hills.

And I havent heard back from the snow demons.

So its all about positive thoughts I guess,

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 04/07/2007 15:33

No sign of the wintry blast yet - still sunny in Chch with cloud to the north, but little to the southwest.

Seems like a higher risk of heavy snow in the North Island high country than in Canterbury, according to MetService. If there are any complications in the very cold southerly airmass as it crosses the island, there could be some interesting scenarios, ie snow to unusually low levels and/or particularly heavy falls.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 04/07/2007 15:40

tich wrote:No sign of the wintry blast yet - still sunny in Chch with cloud to the north, but little to the southwest.

We've gone from fine and cool to 8/8 overcast and mild. Nothing ominous though.

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 04/07/2007 15:52

tich wrote:No sign of the wintry blast yet - still sunny in Chch with cloud to the north, but little to the southwest.

Seems like a higher risk of heavy snow in the North Island high country than in Canterbury, according to MetService. If there are any complications in the very cold southerly airmass as it crosses the island, there could be some interesting scenarios, ie snow to unusually low levels and/or particularly heavy falls.

The met service is still saying sleety showers for chch on Friday, so as long as we get something, Im happy.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Wed 04/07/2007 15:56

Well at this stage in my opinion, it will snow. only light falls especially tomorrow night or we will wake up too it snowing and have some white stuff on the ground on Friday morning

NOTE: its been rather mild here in Christchurch today

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Wed 04/07/2007 15:58

Gary Roberts wrote:
tich wrote:No sign of the wintry blast yet - still sunny in Chch with cloud to the north, but little to the southwest.
We've gone from fine and cool to 8/8 overcast and mild. Nothing ominous though.

Been overcast with drizzel at times since 10am this morning temp around 5-6Â°c

Maybe some snow tonight once the colder air mass arrives.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Wed 04/07/2007 16:55

Baro reading 991,Humidity at 98% and temp 7.7 with southerly wind at 3.6kph,Looking overcast to the north and north west of Rolleston at the moment with high cloud filling the rest of the sky.