Severe Easterly storm & Flooding, upper NI, 9 - 13th Jul

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 12/07/2007 08:56

Bet you cant wait to come back honey and cream dont last forever

RWood wrote:Glad to be missing hometown weather at present - not dramatic, but cloudy, cold and damp - yuk!

Will be a double shock if that keeps up...

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 12/07/2007 09:09

I bet there must be massive swells on the east coasts of Northland and Coromandel.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 12/07/2007 09:56

Had made plans to spend this weekend up in the far North, may have to cancel.
Some sunshine here today

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Thu 12/07/2007 10:04

Andrew Massie wrote:...I agree.. feeling sorry for you lot up north, will swap ANYTIME! Seriously! The only natural action we're gonna see is the Alpine fault rupturing or a Tsunami from Chilean quakes... And bad weather sounds much more fun.

Like you and gllitz said, better some bad weather than a natural cataclysm! As a Coromandel boy, I remember the big easterly storms of yore, as well as Bola. It didn't do the beaches any good, although it was certainly exciting.

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Thu 12/07/2007 10:36

Gary Roberts wrote:
Andrew Massie wrote:...I agree.. feeling sorry for you lot up north, will swap ANYTIME! Seriously! The only natural action we're gonna see is the Alpine fault rupturing or a Tsunami from Chilean quakes... And bad weather sounds much more fun.
Like you and gllitz said, better some bad weather than a natural cataclysm! As a Coromandel boy, I remember the big easterly storms of yore, as well as Bola. It didn't do the beaches any good, although it was certainly exciting.

I bet it was exciting.. And you survive those things. This should be in the "off topic" category, but when Geonet send me quake notices that are on the alpine fault and shallow.. I get nervous and start thinking about making an emergency kit.. And then forget to do anything!

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Thu 12/07/2007 11:04

Andrew Massie wrote:...when Geonet send me quake notices that are on the alpine fault and shallow.. I get nervous and start thinking about making an emergency kit.. And then forget to do anything!

After all the disaster-awareness advertising which has been going on for a while I wonder how many people up north actually had a survival kit prepared? It'd make for an interesting study.

Now, on with the North Island Action Weather reports!

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Thu 12/07/2007 11:07

Gary Roberts wrote:After all the disaster-awareness advertising which has been going on for a while I wonder how many people up north actually had a survival kit prepared? It'd make for an interesting study.

I agree.. Civil Defence should be trying to find out if they're getting results for their advertising dollars.

Yeah, what's the weather doing up there, fellas?!!

Wildland · Unread post by **Wildland** » Thu 12/07/2007 11:11

Whew! Dargaville squeaked through two high tides without being flooded.
No details through as yet, but the serious flooding that was feared did not occur.

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Thu 12/07/2007 11:22

Wildland wrote:Whew! Dargaville squeaked through two high tides without being flooded.
No details through as yet, but the serious flooding that was feared did not occur.

I've just been trying to find official graph data, but can only find the standard tidal prediction data, which doesn't show storm surge levels.

Wildland · Unread post by **Wildland** » Thu 12/07/2007 12:12

The Northland Regional Council post some facts and figures in their regular media releases on the Northland emergency. Have a look at
http://www.nrc.govt.nz/

The NRC is a shining example of a council that takes its information responsibilities seriously. Their regular updates are concise but detailed. The road closure section is regularly updated as well. Full marks.

They've provided most of the background for stories that I've run on the storm.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 12/07/2007 12:21

these 100 year events seem to be occuring every year now....i.e storm systems are becoming more violent more often now.....global warming??...or just a cycle we are in....(cant blame it on elnino or la nina at the moment (maybe its worse when its neither one or the other that is dominant?)

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Thu 12/07/2007 12:39

Wildland wrote:The Northland Regional Council post some facts and figures in their regular media releases on the Northland emergency. Have a look at
http://www.nrc.govt.nz/

The NRC is a shining example of a council that takes its information responsibilities seriously. Their regular updates are concise but detailed. The road closure section is regularly updated as well. Full marks.

They've provided most of the background for stories that I've run on the storm.

That's a superb site, or at least as far as Council sites go! Most councils are only interested in boosting theprojects of their developer mates, to levy extra rates incomes, but that Northland one actually seems to be trying to provide a service to their ratepayers. Top marks to them, I say.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Thu 12/07/2007 13:02

NZstorm wrote:Is there any scientific evidence of this happening? I know its popular belief especially among politians these days. It would be interesting to see some scientific research on the issue.

I remember some real humdinger storms from my youth on the Coromandel (late '60s to late '80s) but nothing since seems to have been even close. I could be wrong of course.

jrj · Unread post by **jrj** » Thu 12/07/2007 13:12

I don't believe that storms are becoming more violent, we've had some beauts in the past, and will continue to have more. What has changed is the way we develop our towns and cities. Take Napier for instance. Back in June 1963 we had a major event, my 150mm raingauge overflowed, much of the newly developed suburbs in Napier were flooded. Since then, they have developed housing areas over much of the old lagoon areas (reclaimed in the '31 'quake). When we get another event like that one, which we will, with or without "climate change", Helen Clark will be flying in saying "perhaps we shouldn't be building there". Maybe we should have said that two centuries ago. But we all have to live somewhere, so it's just a case of taking a punt on where the next disaster will be, and hope like hell that it is in someone else's backyard

Wildland · Unread post by **Wildland** » Thu 12/07/2007 14:19

I too remember violent storms from the 60s and 70s (Gisborne) and, of course, cyclone Giselle. Looking through old newspapers from the 1870s and 1880s shows plenty of evidence of drought, floods, snow on the hills around Gisborne (occasionally). If I had the time, I'd chart the various events to see what their frequency looked like compared with contemporary events. One day...

Many of our towns were established during the 1800s with little knowledge of the frequency of floods etc. Once established it's difficult to get people to move. Case in point is poor old Kaeo in Northland (was called Te Kaeo when I visited there in the 70s). It's a lovely place (the whole area is). I can understand the reluctance of residents to move even after being flooded out twice in the space of 4 months. Even with our present knowledge we still can't say for certain that another flood WILL occur within a specified time.

It's a difficult issue to address, and is usually driven by insurance companies in the end when they refuse to offer cover. The insurance companies do a lot of actuarial work on hazard risk these days. The spin-off is a bit of loot ending up in the scientists' projects.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 12/07/2007 15:38

Wildland wrote: If I had the time, I'd chart the various events to see what their frequency looked like compared with contemporary events. One day...

A couple of years ago (and it was just 2 or so) NIWA published a study of heavy rainfall events from the NZ climate archive which showed no trend towards an increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events somewhere in New Zealand over the last 100 years. Of course, thats not to say that some places in the country are not getting more frequent extreme events, but taken over all, nope.

I've tried, but cant find, any reference to that research on the NIWA site. Are there any NIWA lurkers out there who can help us with a link please?

jrj · Unread post by **jrj** » Thu 12/07/2007 17:11

That research wouldn't fit in with NIWA (ie: the Gummint)'s agenda on "climate change"

Wildland · Unread post by **Wildland** » Thu 12/07/2007 18:04

Setting aside the climate change aspect for a moment, the 1 in 50 year 1 in 100 concept is only a projected average. The cyclic nature of weather means that two 1 in 50 yr floods can easily occur within years of each other.

In the case of Northland, it could be that the average return rates might need to be refined, but carefully, so that we don't skew them to reflect the "current" weather cycle. In any case the projection is only a guide, not an absolute prediction.

Nature is notoriously unpredictable. Tell people who lived through the depression years that magnitude 7 earthquakes occur on average once every 10 years - they'd probably suggest you were locked up. New Zealand experienced 9 viciously large earthquakes during the 13 years from 1929.

We've been fortunate to have gone through a relatively quiet period in recent decades, but those averaged odds are stacking up. Andrew Massie should do something about that kit. It's a handy thing to have during a power crisis, flood, landslide etc as well as when the Alpine Fault goes blat. Besides, an Alpine Fault movement isn't Christchurch's only earthquake threat, just its largest.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 12/07/2007 18:40

I think there is a major climate shift going on perhaps not as bad here, but I think Al Gore's explanation on global warming is starting to reveal itself.
The northen hemisphere is warming in alot of areas where glacial and mountain areas are on a fast ice melt and much faster than what was intially anticipated. As for the weather happenings with some places especailly in the UK seeing some unusual weather events unfold or record breaking. All the scandal about, the strongest winds in 100 years or never been recorded before.
Is it that the worlds weather is changing or is it simply just the population is growing with more people realising such events or having use of more weather stations plotted over large areas.
I havnt really noticed a big change here apart from the fact that in the last two years the ways of thunderstorms and good old southerly busters have some what died. What ever happend to a good old roaring southerly ripping through the whole of Canterbury with good thunder and lightning and isolated hailstorms.
Obviously this could well be to do with a more SW flow than southerly, but is that caused by the el nino and la nina patterns or a climatical shift of such.
But all we can do is just wait for that something exciting to happen in the weather because latly it's been all around us but here

.
Cheers
Jason.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Thu 12/07/2007 18:49

Take the forests away and you will have more floods

Just my 2 cents

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 12/07/2007 19:55

is it simply just the population is growing with more people realising such events

I agree with this. I am skeptical of climate change in the realm that our politicians are talking.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 12/07/2007 20:07

NZstorm wrote:
I agree with this. I am skeptical of climate change in the realm that our politicians are talking.

Agreed. We know to little about effects on the climate to blame so much on it.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 12/07/2007 21:42

re dargaville it would have been the SE winds that saved the town from flooding plus the new flood walls recently put in place.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 12/07/2007 21:57

SE winds that saved it??
(was actualy more SSE today)
the wind would have help to push the tide up the river if anything
one that also helped today was that the barometer had risen alot

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 12/07/2007 22:26

Personally myself, I don't think that global warming has anything to do with the storm in Northland or the cold weather down south combined with the formation of the tornadoes off the Taranaki Coast.
It's just the way that recent weather systems have combined themselves in development as they move from west to east.
Weather works in patterns, and it is just they way they have patterning out in the last few weeks that have resulted in dramatic circumstances in western regions over the North Island especially.
To me, global warming has a tendancy to make the weather more boring, ie., nothing much happening to compared to what could of happen

All we get here in the east is boring, frustratingly, drizzly cold weather from extensions from a southern anticyclone, positioned in the wrong place.

..just my 40 cents worth

JohnGaul
NZTS