Low early week

[spwill]

Some very heavy rain through East and South Auckland currently, just had a good Downpour here.


Re snow inland North Canterbury next weekend, will depend on what the South Island Ridge does. Looks like it might keep deeper rain clouds to the north.

[gopolks]

Latest Aussie map, those freaking Highs just keep coming.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/late ... E=IDY00050

[Manukau heads obs]

Some very heavy rain through East and South Auckland currently, just had a good Downpour here.

this is what that looked like from here:

[03Stormchaser]

Im up Hamner way this weekend, could snow over the sat night into sunday!

After a quick look at the models im pretty sure it will snow.

Its not going to happen going by lastest looks...

Expect fine frosty weather in Hanmer at this stage

Im abit lost as to your post, your model run that you are looking at is an older one than the one I would have looked at before I posted??

[Razor]

i was going off the update they ran this afternoon, that was dated 6am this morning on the metvuw site. See the latest shows one is showing a little more action as it had yesterday. In other words theres littel consistency in the model

I'm sticking to my pick of no snow in ChCh this year due to La Nina phases

[03Stormchaser]

I'm sticking to my pick of no snow in ChCh this year due to La Nina phases

I would agree with that. Nothing pointing toward that to happen.

[gopolks]

I'm sticking to my pick of no snow in ChCh this year due to La Nina phases

I would agree with that. Nothing pointing toward that to happen.

Bummer, so all these threads saying , "will ir or wont it" have been for nothing.

Roll on Neutral conditions.

[mikestormchaser]

also its only half way through winter (15th July) so dont know why you are talking about spring already

Well because it seems as if the worst is behind us. The winters of 2004, 2005 and 2006 were also like this: the worst was early in winter (2004 & 2005 barely even had a "worst") with the rest of the season being very uneventful.

Maybe that's just down here though.[/quote]

ya see Gary in 2005 if i remember correctly we got snow here on the 19th of September, also in 2004 we got snow in late august, so the past 3 years we have only once seen snow early in winter witch of course was last year (june 12th)
So i think theres alot more too come in Christchurch.
You have had your turn already remember

[Storm Struck]

I think it could be more the case of August being our interesting month weather wise for snow etc as it has proven in the past it can deliver well during that month.
And if nothing happens then the next cure to keep us going is hoping for a good storm season .
Cheers
Jason.

[Gary Roberts]

ya see Gary in 2005 if i remember correctly we got snow here on the 19th of September, also in 2004 we got snow in late august, so the past 3 years we have only once seen snow early in winter witch of course was last year (june 12th)
So i think theres alot more too come in Christchurch.
You have had your turn already remember

As I recall, in 2004 we had maybe 2-4" fall in late May, and then another 1" or so in mid-August.

2005, if I recall correctly, we had measurable snow once, and it was absolutely bugger-all. I can't remember when that happened, only that it was nothing to write home about.

Of course in 2006 we got maybe 6-8" on June 12th. That sat around on the ground for a week or two, chilling the air, but almost nothing fell after that.

This year, 2007, we had a 4" fall in June. That lasted for around a week. Another fall occurred soon after, but it amounted to almost nothing.

I never said that snow only falls in June here. What I said was that it seems as if we get appreciable snowfall usually in the space of a week or so and that's it for the year.

So far that statement has been borne out by the facts!

[Andrew Massie]

Ah well, taking ourselves to Arthur's Pass this weekend.. might see some white stuff, considering purchasing some chains in case..

[NZstorm]

I agree with Gary that June is the high season for low level snowfall in Otago. The chance of snow drops through July as the high latitude zonal westerlies start cranking up.

I think we will get a mild spring this year. Southerners who have suffered a raw winter thus far will notice the big rise in temperatures. Get the curling done in Otago pronto!

[Gary Roberts]

I think we will get a mild spring this year. Southerners who have suffered a raw winter thus far will notice the big rise in temperatures.

In 2004 and 2005 we had flowers blooming in late July/early August and bees all over the place. It certainly felt like Spring.

My original statement was that we don't get the all-winter winter's of other countries and I stand by that.

The part of NZ's winter season which exhibits winterlike events is always exceedingly brief. After that it's a gentle (some say dull) journey into spring.

[03Stormchaser]

For the last 12 days we havent gone into double figures.

[03Stormchaser]

Looks like the models are sticky with this sunday snow event. Going down to 200-300m over Sat night/Sunday. You may well get flurries lower, this run has the 500mb thickness levels down to 522, but its the first run to have itso low.

[spwill]

The part of NZ's winter season which exhibits winterlike events is always exceedingly brief

Winterlike events do include frost Gary, common from Mid April to mid September in your part of the world.
August could have a claim for the high season for low level snow along the SI East coast.

[Achten]

Very heavy rain here in the Bay this morning, 84m to date, 40 mm in a 2 hour period. Lots of flooding. Friends at the back of Fernhill cleared there rain gauge this morning when they got up and its now reading 94mm.

[Lawrence]

Just finnished looking at all available models and if they don't change too much it is of my opinion we could be in for some snow to low levels on Sunday but I said that last time and it ended up being too warm.But it looks good up to now, fingers crossed eh?

[Gary Roberts]

Just finnished looking at all available models and if they don't change too much it is of my opinion we could be in for some snow to low levels on Sunday but I said that last time and it ended up being too warm.But it looks good up to now, fingers crossed eh?

I've been speaking with one of the Meridian weatherologists during smoko and she thinks we could get a little bit of snow but there's no base so it won't even settle, letalone last for any appreciable length of time. After that the big incoming high will deal to anything which lingers and it's all over for this winter's snow.

[gllitz]

The GFS model, at least, looks promising (see attached). Numbers look good, but Gary may be right in that it won't amount to much...but at least it will be SOMETHING if the models hold.

[Lawrence]

Yeah,it don't look so good, just a small amount, proberly better above 300m

[Willoughby]

Very heavy rain here in the Bay this morning, 84m to date, 40 mm in a 2 hour period. Lots of flooding. Friends at the back of Fernhill cleared there rain gauge this morning when they got up and its now reading 94mm.

Hmm by the look of the satellite the rain bands are quite stationary and there could be quite a bit more to come!

It's actually quite a pleasant day here despite the cloud, 15C/ dewpoint 12C and not much wind at all.

Possibility of reaching 17C tomorrow with the southeasterlies on the back of the low.

The part of NZ's winter season which exhibits winterlike events is always exceedingly brief. After that it's a gentle (some say dull) journey into spring.

I'm not sure who's winter you're comparing to, but we are dead smack in the middle of the water hemisphere after all... hence a rather moderated climate.

[Gary Roberts]

...we are dead smack in the middle of the water hemisphere after all... hence a rather moderated climate.

Well it's unacceptable and the bluddy guvmint should do something about it!

[Razor]

I guess the droughts over up there.

Interesting that the same system is likely to hammer them twice as it does a U Turn and heads north. Could that mean some heavy snow for the Central NI High Country also?


Lets stick to one thread per event please

[Andrew Massie]

...we are dead smack in the middle of the water hemisphere after all... hence a rather moderated climate.

Well it's unacceptable, and the bluddy guvmint should do something about it!

Stop that, before Winston gets a sniff of it and brings out another winebox!