Karshvardidgâh wrote:O.M.G.you have got to see this model for Wednesday and Thursday,Just minding my own business,browsing the models as you do and then I see this https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2007071900
Dosen't work. It said that my computer will blow up, the house will catch fire and my wife and children will be exported to the slave mines in Eastern Russia, if, even, I attempt to access this site
(I suppose that's better than being accused of performing an illegal operation like in the Windows 95 days) JohnGaul
NZTS
Yeah,sorry John forgot to explain that they have a out of date certificate, I wish they would do something about it.
Hmmm...the numbers are still looking good for a "WEEEE" bit of white stuff overnight SAT/SUN...so, gopolks, at this stage (and it will probably change!!)...just stay up late after the rugger and keep your eyes peeled
gllitz wrote:Hmmm...the numbers are still looking good for a "WEEEE" bit of white stuff overnight SAT/SUN...so, gopolks, at this stage (and it will probably change!!)...just stay up late after the rugger and keep your eyes peeled
gllitz wrote:You lot are digressing quite a bit there.....
...the Low in the Tasman doesn't seem to be going anywhere in a hurry....hasn't moved for the last 4-5 hours by the SAT loops.
Looks like it's being spun and squeezed between the Jet stream and a developing pressure system fom the south, the high over Australia is'nt moving much as well.
gllitz wrote:You lot are digressing quite a bit there.....
...the Low in the Tasman doesn't seem to be going anywhere in a hurry....hasn't moved for the last 4-5 hours by the SAT loops.
Looks like it's being spun and squeezed between the Jet stream and a developing pressure system fom the south, the high over Australia is'nt moving much as well.
{SWA Event 2007/1.23}
SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHLAND OTAGO CANTERBURY MARLBOROUGH WAIRARAPA MANAWATU TAIHAPE HAWKES BAY GISBORNE ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 11:35am Friday 20-Jul-2007
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO LOW LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH ISLAND ON SATURDAY, ALSO ABOUT HIGHER REGIONS OF THE NORTH ISLAND FROM WAIRARAPA UP TO GISBORNE INCLUDING THE CENTRAL PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
A front is forecast to race across the South Island on Saturday, followed by bitterly cold southwesterlies. Snow showers are likely down to 200 metres in parts of Southland and eastern Otago by Saturday evening, with sleet possible to sea level. Snow amounts are not expected to reach warning levels, but could affect many inland roads, such as the Northern Motorway out of Dunedin.
Further north, snow is likely to lower to 400 metres in parts of Canterbury and to 600 metres in eastern Marlborough Saturday night. Here, some higher roads are likely to be affected, including Porters Pass, although snowfall totals are not expected to be large.
The cold front is forecast to cross the North Island early Sunday, bringing snow to higher areas from Wairarapa up to Gisborne, including Taihape. There is still uncertainty how much snow will fall in these places, however it is likely to affect the Desert Road, Napier-Taupo Road, and even possibly the Rimutaka Hill Road.
Travellers in all these areas are advised to be prepared for snow on higher roads as mentioned above, while trampers may want to reconsider their plans.
Finally, farmers may also want to consider moving vulnerable stock to areas sheltered from the cold south to southwest flow.
The next Special Weather Advisory will be issued by midday Saturday 21-Jul-2007
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Last edited by Lawrence on Fri 20/07/2007 11:48, edited 1 time in total.
Okay...I have finally been able to get a more up-to-date meteogram...YAY!
The numbers still look good (AND they have been very consitent for the last few runs) for low level snow Sunday morning (525/526 THK, very low 850 temps (-6/-7) and a bit of precip...so I am thinking we will SEE snow to sea level, but it won't last long.
It will most likely be of the flurry variety, too.
That's my call, and I am sticking to it ....
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gopolks wrote:Opps, they have actually the snow levels to 400 metres for canterbury, it was at 300 metres wasnt it?
Dude, haven't you learned yet? Decent snowfall only arivees when you aren't expecting it. The second it's forecast or predicted the chance of it happening in quantities worth more than a bag of slime is reduced to approximately 0.0000000000000000000000000013 %.
gopolks wrote:Opps, they have actually the snow levels to 400 metres for canterbury, it was at 300 metres wasnt it?
Dude, haven't you learned yet? Decent snowfall only arivees when you aren't expecting it. The second it's forecast or predicted the chance of it happening in quantities worth more than a bag of slime is reduced to approximately 0.0000000000000000000000000013 %.
In the words of Homer Simpson, "I like those odds"
I must admit it is looking better again especailly compared to last night as models have improved on the up side not the down .
Moisture looks to be abit better now, well the same amount likly it was showing on Wednesday night until it changed yesterday. There is a good area of moisture offshore overnight Saturday of about 10-20mm range so hopefully that gets pushed ashore .
As Glitnz posted thk levels are looking in favour for very low level snow at this stage even though there wont be overly much even to 300m. To be safe at this stage sleet looks more likly to near sea level, but then again its not going to snow anyway is it .
Cheers
Jason.
I was actually referring to this moisture run http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... zsi&tim=42 provided the flow tilts more Southerly than S-SW.
Nice light pool over south canty too in that run.
Only thing is on Thursday the flow is very W-SW so most of it will likly clip the far south in those cases.
I am actually looking forward to next week with those mild NW winds, much better than this anticyclonic gloom.
Cheers
Jason.
Here is a better representation (BURWOOD - REPRESENT!!!) of the meteogram posted earlier...note the cloud cover and wind directions as well...looks to be mostly SSW to me...
I put the wind barbs on it as ( I forget who ) told me this was very important...
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Heres the lastest from that burwood weather station that is on the web.
8.8°C Warmer 0.3°C than last hour.
Heat Index 8.8°C
Wind Chill 8.8°C
Humidity: 95 %
Dewpoint: 8.1°C
Wind Speed: Calm
Gust Speed: None
Gust Last Hour: 6.4 kmh S
Barometer: 1017.6 hpa (1017.6 hPa)Falling 2.20 hPa/hour.
Today's Rain: 0.0 mm
Days with no rain: 0 days
Sunshine Today: 00:09
Time of Last Lightning: 12:54:55 2007/07/20
Last strike recorded: 680 KM @ 339°
gopolks wrote:Heres the lastest from that burwood weather station that is on the web.
8.8°C Warmer 0.3°C than last hour.
Heat Index 8.8°C
Wind Chill 8.8°C
Humidity: 95 %
Dewpoint: 8.1°C
Wind Speed: Calm
Gust Speed: None
Gust Last Hour: 6.4 kmh S
Barometer: 1017.6 hpa (1017.6 hPa)Falling 2.20 hPa/hour.
Today's Rain: 0.0 mm
Days with no rain: 0 days
Sunshine Today: 00:09
Time of Last Lightning: 12:54:55 2007/07/20
Last strike recorded: 680 KM @ 339°
Yes, that weatherstation is about a minute's drive from my house...
Well, the above seems to me to be pretty bang-on so far with the Meteogram...save the wind direction...interesting that it has been southerly both at Jeff's and that station for sometime...
Outisde the office here in Riccarton its been light southerly all day. Went for a jog around Hagley Park at lunchtime and at seemed milder than recent days
Outisde the office here in Riccarton its been light southerly all day. Went for a jog around Hagley Park at lunchtime and at seemed milder than recent days
Milder, but still not mild. According to radar, light stuff is still coming down from the northeast, but mostly affecting Banks Peninsula. Funnily, I instincively look to the south to see if any stuff is coming, only to soon realise that this time it's coming from the northeast!
Looking forward to the southerly blast and then a return to westerlies to blow away all this murk.
Outisde the office here in Riccarton its been light southerly all day. Went for a jog around Hagley Park at lunchtime and at seemed milder than recent days
Milder, but still not mild. According to radar, light stuff is still coming down from the northeast, but mostly affecting Banks Peninsula. Funnily, I instincively look to the south to see if any stuff is coming, only to soon realise that this time it's coming from the northeast!
Looking forward to the southerly blast and then a return to westerlies to blow away all this murk.
Chch usually gets light S-SW winds in moderate NE airflow, only gets properly NE once the flow picks up strength (which it doesnt look like this one will do).
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