20th-21st July Weekend - Low and Cold snap

[gllitz]

I thought I might start a new thread on this as there seems to be multiple threads where this is being talked about.
Yes, looks promising for some white stuff this weekend (starting late Sat night and into Sunday til noonish?) for the SI...and maybe even parts of the NI (who will probably get more rain AGAIN...which they don't need in some parts)
I haven't been able to get a more recent meteogram than 1707070600Z, but the charts on the WeatherZone site seem to be based on the GFS runs, and they seemed to have changed a bit from the 0600 run from yesterday....for it to be colder and wetter...better THK levels, at least...but we'll see...still 96 hours out...

[03Stormchaser]

One thing I do like is that the 850mb temp isnt getting any warmer. over all the runs its stayed pretty much around -7C -9C.

[gopolks]

Another light dusting for the tops of Banks Peninsula, I would be surprised if some got on the port hills though.

CHCH may get sleety showers? Somewhere in the SI is bound to get hit with the white stuff though.

[tich]

Latest GFS has a major polar blast sweeping over NZ this weekend - patch of below 520 thickness in east of South Island, and 524 line crossing taranaki and Central NI. GASP's latest pushes cold air into Tasman, but another low forms west of NZ with presumably yet more heavy rain in places (most likely SE NI; maybe warm advection snow in inland Canterbury)

[tich]

MetService and Blue Skies now appears to be following the GFS outlook, though not quite as extreme, with a cold southerly outbreak over NZ this weekend. (and hopefully more settled weather next week)

[gllitz]

Still can't get a recent meteogram ...latest I can get is still only 1707070600Z....

[gopolks]

I guess I should of seen it coming.

The models have changed again.

Not even a dusting of snow for banks penisula, light rain over the hills, and maybe patchy drizzle in chch.

They are now saying it wont be nearly as cold as they thought it was going to be a few hours ago.

[gopolks]

North westeries on Monday now????

[Gary McConnochie]

Excellent....Some nice warm northwesterly. After this spell of cold damp northeasterlys it will be a welcome change

[gopolks]

Excellent....Some nice warm northwesterly. After this spell of cold damp northeasterlys it will be a welcome change

Well as much I would love to see these awful, ugly, drizzly damp miserable North easterlies go away, I would rather have them replaced by multiple snow dumps from the south pole.

[Razor]

I reckon its the constant expectation of so many people that an epic cold snap with snow to 300m below sea level is coming thats stuffing up the models. Murray Mexted's psychcic energy at work again.

If everyone here gets in line and says "its not going to snow", then maybe Huey will provide a nice surprise.

[gllitz]

I reckon its the constant expectation of so many people that an epic cold snap with snow to 300m below sea level is coming thats stuffing up the models. Murray Mexted's psychcic energy at work again.

If everyone here gets in line and says "its not going to snow", then maybe Huey will provide a nice surprise.

It's not going to snow.

[03Stormchaser]

I reckon its the constant expectation of so many people that an epic cold snap with snow to 300m below sea level is coming thats stuffing up the models. Murray Mexted's psychcic energy at work again.

If everyone here gets in line and says "its not going to snow", then maybe Huey will provide a nice surprise.

It's not going to snow.

One model change and thats the end?? Hardly think so. I definitly am not seeing NW over the weekend anyway.

[gllitz]

North westeries on Monday now????

WHERE are you getting THAT from???
NONE of the models I have seen would suggest NW'ers for CHCH ANYTIME soon....

[ScottyD]

I reckon its the constant expectation of so many people that an epic cold snap with snow to 300m below sea level is coming thats stuffing up the models. Murray Mexted's psychcic energy at work again.

If everyone here gets in line and says "its not going to snow", then maybe Huey will provide a nice surprise.

300m below sea level, damn that's low!

[03Stormchaser]

Gopolk what model says NW?

[gllitz]

It's not going to snow.

One model change and thats the end?? Hardly think so. I definitly am not seeing NW over the weekend anyway.

(was going for the Huey thing....)

[Lawrence]

North westeries on Monday now????

WHERE are you getting THAT from???
NONE of the models I have seen would suggest NW'ers for CHCH ANYTIME soon....

Can't find that model

[gopolks]

Seems NW to me? Or am I reading it wrong?

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=132

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=126

[gopolks]

This may be scraping the bottom of the barrel, but this is from nzcity.co.nz, if ya put your mouse on the icons for monday, it says NW.

http://home.nzcity.co.nz/weather/weathe ... aspx?wla=5

[03Stormchaser]

WHERE are you getting THAT from???
NONE of the models I have seen would suggest NW'ers for CHCH ANYTIME soon....

Can't find that model

Those models are for monday??

[Lawrence]

Got this one for Sunday fromhttps://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... =ngp_ausnz if its any help Sorry it s a bit blurred.

[Lawrence]

Seems NW to me? Or am I reading it wrong?

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=132

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=126

No your right they are definatly Norwesters.

[03Stormchaser]

Seems NW to me? Or am I reading it wrong?

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=132

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=126

No your right they are definatly Norwesters.

But they are runs for monday, Sat night thru sunday is when u should be looking.

[Lawrence]

Still can't get a recent meteogram ...latest I can get is still only 1707070600Z....

Got this one gllitz.Think its the same as yours though.