A Change in Weather Pattern
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
-
- Posts: 18489
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
A Change in Weather Pattern
Next week looks likely there will be a change in the current weather pattern with a westerly-ish flow developing over NZ, with an anticyclone moving into the Tasman Sea replacing the recent developmentation of low pressure systems there.
However, resistance of the anticyclone over the lows, may weakon next weekend with another low pressure system returning, unfortunately.
JohnGaul
NZTS
However, resistance of the anticyclone over the lows, may weakon next weekend with another low pressure system returning, unfortunately.
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Yes, looks like the models are throwing in yet another cut off low next weekend for north Tasman/northern NZ. Bit far out though.
- Willoughby
- Site Admin
- Posts: 4433
- Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
- Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city
- Has thanked: 264 times
- Been thanked: 288 times
- Contact:
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
SSTs are warmer 'than normal' in most of the Tasman, especially off the SE Aus Coast... will certainly mean very mild conditions once the westerlies increase... and they're quite welcome after all the southeasterlies!
- Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 1 time
- Contact:
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
RWood will be jumping up and down for joy while writing in the sunshine
-
- Posts: 3745
- Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
- Location: Wellington
- Has thanked: 188 times
- Been thanked: 123 times
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
I hope so! There's the small matter of today to clear out first - cold southerly with bright patches and a couple of showers so far.
I think the holiday weather I experienced was about the best I've ever encountered (for any time of 3 weeks or more, anyway). I can recall a long spell of delightful clear weather in Central Otago in Jan. 1959. It was very warm, but never humid or sultry - can remember being a little surprised that one day peaked at 97.0F (there was a faint breeze on the hill slopes behind Alexandra). There was a heavy downpour and brief thunderstorm I think, late in the month.
I think the holiday weather I experienced was about the best I've ever encountered (for any time of 3 weeks or more, anyway). I can recall a long spell of delightful clear weather in Central Otago in Jan. 1959. It was very warm, but never humid or sultry - can remember being a little surprised that one day peaked at 97.0F (there was a faint breeze on the hill slopes behind Alexandra). There was a heavy downpour and brief thunderstorm I think, late in the month.
- Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 1 time
- Contact:
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Weather improved a lot this afternoon and quite mild but dont know about tomorrow though
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
not herequite mild
has not gone much over 11oC today with the cold southerly wind blowing
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Turned sunny but stayed cold. Max was 12C. Possibly the coldest day of the winter so far.
- 03Stormchaser
- Moderator
- Posts: 4428
- Joined: Tue 09/12/2003 12:11
- Location: Prebbleton
- Has thanked: 104 times
- Been thanked: 184 times
- Contact:
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
17th day in a row with out getting to double figures! Hopefully a change is in store soon!
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
we have had a couple of colder days, one less than 11oC max:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... taout.html" target="_blank
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... taout.html" target="_blank
-
- Posts: 18489
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Should be warmer with this coming week, Brian
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Looks like Parts of Auckland city would have had a frost this morning, going by Ricky's temperature reading this morning
-
- Posts: 165
- Joined: Sat 13/11/2004 15:36
- Location: West Melton
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Warming up nicely here.
8.3 degrees and rising. Has a very spring like feel to the day.
Starting to like this change in weather patern.
8.3 degrees and rising. Has a very spring like feel to the day.
Starting to like this change in weather patern.
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 5138
- Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
- Location: Halswell, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 725 times
- Been thanked: 932 times
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Sundays Metvuw prognosis, while being a wee way out, looks like the best chance for the Canterbury skifields to get a top up!
Worth watching and might well deserve its own thread in a few days if that comes through, big fat low parked out by the Chatams firing S/SE gales onto the eastern Mainland for a few days. Hmmm!
Also looking dangerous for the upper north to have another drenching
What are the other models saying about this?
Worth watching and might well deserve its own thread in a few days if that comes through, big fat low parked out by the Chatams firing S/SE gales onto the eastern Mainland for a few days. Hmmm!
Also looking dangerous for the upper north to have another drenching
What are the other models saying about this?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Christchurch Rocks
- gllitz
- Posts: 1335
- Joined: Wed 04/01/2006 11:45
- Location: Perth, Western Australia
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
GFSx model shows something similar, but as stated in a previous thread, maybe we should hold off on making a new thread on this one til we are within 96 hours of the event?Razor wrote:Sundays Metvuw prognosis, while being a wee way out, looks like the best chance for the Canterbury skifields to get a top up!
Worth watching and might well deserve its own thread in a few days if that comes through, big fat low parked out by the Chatams firing S/SE gales onto the eastern Mainland for a few days. Hmmm!
Also looking dangerous for the upper north to have another drenching
What are the other models saying about this?
Whilst promising, lesson_learned_from_MANY_previous_events=="Models change TOO much that far out"
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 5138
- Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
- Location: Halswell, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 725 times
- Been thanked: 932 times
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
From Metwervice SWO: "On Saturday, a low may develop east of Canterbury with a cold southeast flow directed over the southern South Island capable of producing heavy rain and possibly heavy snow to low levels in eastern areas of Canterbury, Otago and Southland. At this stage, there is considerable uncertainty as to the location of the low centre and it may well end up a lot further to the south, removing the danger of severe weather for these areas. "
We shall watch and see.
We shall watch and see.
Christchurch Rocks
-
- Posts: 706
- Joined: Thu 22/03/2007 16:48
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Well it will be great if it happens, I will wait till Thursday until I think about it. In the meantime I will enjoy the North Westries mid week with temps in the mid or late teens!
-
- Posts: 706
- Joined: Thu 22/03/2007 16:48
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Its changed all already as expected, but since chch is expecting a week of North Westeries, we normally get some real bad weather following a north west pattern in winter.Razor wrote:Sundays Metvuw prognosis, while being a wee way out, looks like the best chance for the Canterbury skifields to get a top up!
Worth watching and might well deserve its own thread in a few days if that comes through, big fat low parked out by the Chatams firing S/SE gales onto the eastern Mainland for a few days. Hmmm!
Also looking dangerous for the upper north to have another drenching
What are the other models saying about this?
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=144" target="_blank
- gllitz
- Posts: 1335
- Joined: Wed 04/01/2006 11:45
- Location: Perth, Western Australia
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
It's already a fizzer...for the SI, anyway..."Nothing to see here for the SI, folks...Move along, move along................."
I for one, welcome the upcoming warming trend for the SI...will be a good break from what we have had.
(NI may get some unwelcome blech, tho...but still way too early to tell..."GO the 72-hour rule!!" )
I for one, welcome the upcoming warming trend for the SI...will be a good break from what we have had.
(NI may get some unwelcome blech, tho...but still way too early to tell..."GO the 72-hour rule!!" )
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
-
- Posts: 706
- Joined: Thu 22/03/2007 16:48
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
How can you tell, its already a fizzer? surly it cant of changed that much?
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4871
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 391 times
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Yes I agree to just keep it quiet for the moment as we have seen over the past few weeks of what has panned out and dissapointed.
But with mild temps and a W-NW flow during winter heading up to this possible event then perhaps it could be worth while watching out for, even though there are other reasons.
I see GFS is going for a low to cross the NI on Sunday, Monday and deepen but also there looks to be an infleunce of a colder change in the south island of S-SE with cooler air which could be a great mix depending on which way the low heads.
Cheers
Jason.
But with mild temps and a W-NW flow during winter heading up to this possible event then perhaps it could be worth while watching out for, even though there are other reasons.
I see GFS is going for a low to cross the NI on Sunday, Monday and deepen but also there looks to be an infleunce of a colder change in the south island of S-SE with cooler air which could be a great mix depending on which way the low heads.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Yes, but atleast with the forthcoming situation there looks like there will be low pressure over the South Island.
-
- Posts: 706
- Joined: Thu 22/03/2007 16:48
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: A Change in Weather Pattern
Sunday models for what its worth.
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=132" target="_blank
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=138" target="_blank
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=144" target="_blank
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=150" target="_blank
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=132" target="_blank
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=138" target="_blank
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=144" target="_blank
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=150" target="_blank