A Change in Weather Pattern

[Storm Struck]

It's interesting how quickly models change all the time, two runs in a day can be completly different.
When it comes down to it basic weather knowledge can be the best key to it all sometimes.
By the way thanks John for locking the other topic a few things said there by another which shouldn't have .
Cheers
Jason.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, but atleast with the forthcoming situation there looks like there will be low pressure over the South Island.

...but this seems to be moving now quickly onwards eastward with a continuation of the more milder westerly flows. maybe spring is in the air, as what Gary said??

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Andrew Massie]

Yep.. Bring on the better weather.. Had enough of this depressing sludgy weather, need some air movement! Then we get sun, heating, convection, friction... and a Billion Volts!

Got back from Arthur's Pass yesterday.. Hoar Frost up there, they only get about 3 hours sun a day this time of year! Snowed Saturday night, but not enough for a snowball and a Kea ate one of my window wipers!

[NZstorm]

It's interesting how quickly models change all the time,

GFS is often the worst offender.

a few things said there by another which shouldn't have

Delete rubbish rather than locking threads

[03Stormchaser]

Got back from Arthur's Pass yesterday.. Hoar Frost up there, they only get about 3 hours sun a day this time of year! Snowed Saturday night, but not enough for a snowball and a Kea ate one of my window wipers!

Those Keas are cheecky barsteds! When tramping up there the other weekend we had on follow us for about an hour.
Arthurs Pass is great this time of year, hoping to go up camping in a couple weeks for a weekend.

[Razor]

I see Metvuw have got in line with Metservice comment that that system is likely to head further south now. Looks more like an Otago and West Coast event now, the Canterbury skifields must be having a disasterous year.

Still worried for our Northland folk they was that system is looking though, more heavy rain likely for them

[Andrew Massie]

Those Keas are cheecky barsteds! When tramping up there the other weekend we had on follow us for about an hour.
Arthurs Pass is great this time of year, hoping to go up camping in a couple weeks for a weekend.

Will post some photos this week in photos forum.. They're cute, in their own destructive way...!

[gopolks]

Yep the south west of the south island seems to be in the firing line for the coming weekend until monday, while chch seems to be stuck in a northly pattern.

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=144" target="_blank

[Gary Roberts]

Looks more like an Otago and West Coast event now...

West Coast maybe but Otago looks like it can expect more nice sunny weather!

...the Canterbury skifields must be having a disasterous year.

I think every NZ skifield will want to forget 2007.

[Andrew Massie]

I think every NZ skifield will want to forget 2007.

Hmmm... are you ok, Gary? I guess if they had a wee "boogie" icon, you'd have used it after that statement!

There's a strange sphere of Hydrogen lighting up the whole sky at the moment here.. It's raising the temperature to double digits!! If this carries on, we'll burn up! She canna take it, Captain!

[Gary Roberts]

I guess if they had a wee "boogie" icon, you'd have used it after that statement!

Boogie as in snot, board or man? I reckon a snot icon would be awesome!

There's a strange sphere of Hydrogen lighting up the whole sky at the moment here.. It's raising the temperature to double digits!! If this carries on, we'll burn up! She canna take it, Captain!

We've had that thing around for ages but not the temps! We've leapt an almost 20 °C range in a week!

[Andrew Massie]

Boogie as in snot, board or man? I reckon a snot icon would be awesome!

Boogie as in happy dancing!

We've had that thing around for ages but not the temps! We've leapt an almost 20 °C range in a week!

Yeah.. Been a cold winter.. I seem to recall No Idea What's Ahead predicting a mild one!

p.s You haven't answered my PM for you either...

[Gary Roberts]

Boogie as in happy dancing!

Ah! I never thought of that one. But a snot icon would be cooler.

Not really pleased that the ski industry is suffering as much as skiers are!

Yeah.. Been a cold winter.. I seem to recall No Idea What's Ahead predicting a mild one!

Warmer than last year, so I'm cutting them some slack.

p.s You haven't answered my PM for you either...

Uh...which one?

[gopolks]

Still a North Easteries pattern in chch, its couldy and miserable, NW suppose to arrive tomorrow with a high of 17.

[RWood]

I think the deferred transition to La Nina has messed up the winter temp. forecasts so far (both BlusSkies and NIWA I think).

However a significantly milder August would make the overall look a little better...

[Lawrence]

Still a North Easteries pattern in chch, its couldy and miserable, NW suppose to arrive tomorrow with a high of 17.

Not looking too good for some Nor'westers, the wind seems to stay south westerly over the south as the high comes in and the isobars are pushed up against the alps.

[gopolks]

They still saying a high of 17 for tomorrow with North Westeries, and Thursday is suppose to gusty winds.

Latest conditions.

Temperature: 9.5°C Colder 0.5°C than last hour.
Heat Index 9.5°C
Wind Chill 8.6°C

Humidity: 79 %
Dewpoint: 6.0°C
Wind Speed: 13.0 km/h Wind fromENE
Gust Speed: 14.8 km/h
Gust Last Hour: 16.1 kmh NNE
Barometer: 1014.7 hpa (1014.6 hPa)Falling 2.70 hPa/hour.
Today's Rain: 0.0 mm
Days with no rain: 2 days
Sunshine Today: 02:42
Time of Last Lightning: 12:45:36 2007/07/24
Last strike recorded: 560 KM @ 109°

[Lawrence]

Yep,I can see the nor'westers now ,they might not be very warm though and not that strong,draging all that cool air off the alps I think

[gopolks]

Maybe the temps will be around 10-13 and not 14-18 after all.

[mikestormchaser]

Yup well its the first time i have woken up to no condensation on the windows this morning.
So must of been quite a mild night in witch i thought it was.
Yes the NW wont be warm what so ever in middle of winter because of the snow.

[Storm Struck]

Was actually cold this morning after the SW change which brought a little bit of precipitation to the ground .
What I dont understand is why MS go for a high of 17C tomorrow with gusty NW winds and dito for Thursday but except a cooler maximum, is that because the flow is more established by then .
Still temperatures should be around the 15-16C mark.
Cheers
Jason.

[gopolks]

Heheheh this looks promising, I wonder if it will change though.

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=144" target="_blank

[gllitz]

Heheheh this looks promising, I wonder if it will change though.

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=144" target="_blank" target="_blank

GFSx model says 850 mb temp of 0 and THK of 542 for that time...sorry, but no where near cold enough.

...Looks pretty on the map, though

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

The latest ECMWF looks very undecided for our neck of the woods with messy shallow low pressure systems for NZ for the coming week, whilst active weather systems keep revolving around underneath SW Australia?
No anticyclones of note

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Lawrence]

Must be warm, 5 fire engines have arrived outside the TVNZ building in Gloucester street.