A Change in Weather Pattern

[Razor]

Well its 14 degrees here already and rising...I can see a mild few days ahead, would not be surprised to see 20 degrees

[gopolks]

It feels like a summers day out there, NW windy, temp mid teens already.

[Willoughby]

Sure is a great day up here too with partly cloudy skies and 15C... can sense the first signs of Spring... our coldest days I think here are over.

Going to be giving a talk about NZ weather/US storm chasing tonight to the youth search and rescue here in Hamilton... wish me luck

[gopolks]

Weather: Sunday
North Island, rain with heavy falls spreading from north.South Island, becoming fine in the west south of Buller. Rain and gusty southeasterly in the north. Cold strong southerly and rain spreading north elsewhere. Snow lowering to 300 metres in south. Chatham Islands


According to other scoures these lovely North Westeries are suppose to last.

[Lawrence]

Temperature here in the city of the gardens at the moment 16.6°C, Wind Speed North West 19km/h and Pressure at 1006hPa and rising and its sunny

[gopolks]

Temperature here in the city of the gardens at the moment 16.6°C, Wind Speed 19km/h and Pressure at 1006hPa and its sunny

Its just so lovely outside, the birds are chirping.

[Manukau heads obs]

Going to be giving a talk about NZ weather/US storm chasing tonight to the youth search and rescue here in Hamilton... wish me luck

Good stuf their Foggy, and good luck

[Razor]

Just out of interest...what is the record July temperature for Chch? I have it sitting on 20 degrees and still rising right now, with a moderate- fresh norwester

[TokWW]

Going to be giving a talk about NZ weather/US storm chasing tonight to the youth search and rescue here in Hamilton... wish me luck

And Foggy - I hope you have a laptop and projector all planned... would not do if you couldn't show off your wonderful photos of those extraordinary storm fronts and the damage the twisters caused...

Enjoy the evening

[gllitz]

Weather: Sunday
North Island, rain with heavy falls spreading from north.South Island, becoming fine in the west south of Buller. Rain and gusty southeasterly in the north. Cold strong southerly and rain spreading north elsewhere. Snow lowering to 300 metres in south. Chatham Islands


According to other scoures these lovely North Westeries are suppose to last.

I just don't see what M/S are on about....
NONE of the models I have seen (GFSx/NOGAPS/MetVUW models) would suggest a cold outbreak for Sunday....if anything, MORE warm temps!!


...OR...they are using some kind of ULTRA-MEGA-SUPER-DUPER-TOP-SECRET Wx Modelling system we are unaware of.....

EDIT: Even CRT/Blue Skies/Fencepost all have MILD weather over the next 10 days or so...so I am at a loss.....

[gopolks]

Just out of interest...what is the record July temperature for Chch? I have it sitting on 20 degrees and still rising right now, with a moderate- fresh norwester

Not sure, but its 19.2 degrees where I am, and the ladies are wearing nice spring clothes!!!

[03Stormchaser]

Not sure, but its 19.2 degrees where I am, and the ladies are wearing nice spring clothes!!!

Now thats why I like Summer!!


....... because its warm!!

[gopolks]

Gllitz, Thats what Im thinking, all other scoures are saying sunny weather for the next two weeks with NW's temps in the mid teens.

Perhaps its a clerical error?

I must add I got the forcast for Sunday from TVNZ's website.

[Lawrence]

I know its a bit far out but even on the Navy site its looking more like rain than snow for Sunday / Monday,still a southerly flow though.It still could change and it's still July so you never know, but sometimes I have found that if you get an extreme of weather at one point in time nature makes it up a bit later.

[gopolks]

I know its a bit far out but even on the Navy site its looking more like rain than snow for Sunday / Monday,still a southerly flow though.It still could change and it's still July so you never know, but sometimes I have found that if you get an extreme of weather at one point in time nature makes it up a bit later.

So there is a southerly change coming, Im guessing it wont be that cold, it will be short, and it will be back to NE winds and cloudy days.

Still very nice here in CHCH and should stay like this for a few days.

[mikestormchaser]

GOPOLKS WROTE

"So there is a southerly change coming, Im guessing it wont be that cold, it will be short, and it will be back to NE winds and cloudy days.

Still very nice here in CHCH and should stay like this for a few days. ""

Yup and again could turn real cold with snow too sea level and as deep as 50cm

What stunning day today it really does feel like spring, the lawns will start too really take off if we get a good whole week of this weather.
Should warm the soil up too. currntly on 18.1C in my area

[gopolks]

"i will beleive it when i see it, its still a stunner in chch "



Valid: Fri 27 July to Mon 30 July
Issued: Wed 25 July 2007 at 0229 pm

SWO Threat Situation valid from Friday 27-Jul-2007 to Monday 30-Jul-2007

Issued by MetService at 2:10pm Wednesday 25th July 2007

A strong westerly flow over New Zealand will turn northwest and ease on Thursday. On Friday a ridge of high pressure should cover the North Island while a front moves slowly onto southern South Island areas.

Rain is likely to beome heavy for much of Fiordland on Friday, with a moderate risk of heavy falls. Substantial rainfalls are also likely in Southland as an easterly flow develops following the front.

On Saturday the ridge holds over the North Island while a complex frontal system moves slowly north over the South Island. Heavy rainfalls in a northerly flow are likely to move northwards from Fiordland over Westland.

A cold easterly flow should become established over southern South Island areas with widespread rain and the potential for heavy snow down to reasonably low levels. Cold easterlies and heavy rain/snow are likely to move further north over Canterbury and Marlborough during Sunday.

To further complicate matters a low expected to develop over northern North Island areas on Sunday. Widespread rain is expected over the northern half of the North Island with the risk of heavy falls from Northland to Gisborne.

Computer models have widely diverse views of Sunday and Mondays weather giving a low level of predictibility and low confidence in severe weather risks.

Severe Weather Outlook For period beyond the next day or two funded by NZ Government

[Willoughby]

I just don't see what M/S are on about....
NONE of the models I have seen (GFSx/NOGAPS/MetVUW models) would suggest a cold outbreak for Sunday....if anything, MORE warm temps!!


...OR...they are using some kind of ULTRA-MEGA-SUPER-DUPER-TOP-SECRET Wx Modelling system we are unaware of.....

EDIT: Even CRT/Blue Skies/Fencepost all have MILD weather over the next 10 days or so...so I am at a loss.....

You might like to have a look at some different models... like the more sound, ECMWF and UKMO models. Note that MetVUW use the GFS for it's charts.

[Razor]

I had the temperature at 22 dgrees an hour ago! Back down to a positively antarctic 20 now....

[gllitz]

You might like to have a look at some different models... like the more sound, ECMWF and UKMO models. Note that MetVUW use the GFS for it's charts.

Do you (or anyone else in this forum) have any good links to those models you mention (ECMWF and UKMO which have AUS/NZ (NZ only, preferably) ??
Many thanks in advance!

[Razor]

That question seems to come up a lot...maybe the links can be posted in a closed tiopic that sits up the top of the forum?

[Michael]

Bring back the E /SE

[Willoughby]

Do you (or anyone else in this forum) have any good links to those models you mention (ECMWF and UKMO which have AUS/NZ (NZ only, preferably) ??
Many thanks in advance!

Try Chris Noble's set of links...
http://weather.noble.gen.nz/" target="_blank

And hit 'numerical models'.

[jrj]

There are some other interesting links on that website! Hope he's got a good lawyer

[gllitz]

Try Chris Noble's set of links...
http://weather.noble.gen.nz/" target="_blank" target="_blank

And hit 'numerical models'.

Thanks for that, Foggy!

Have had a look and I am still not convinced.....

...and MetVUW use the US WAFS model? Related to/same thing as GFS?