A Change in Weather Pattern

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Next week looks likely there will be a change in the current weather pattern with a westerly-ish flow developing over NZ, with an anticyclone moving into the Tasman Sea replacing the recent developmentation of low pressure systems there.
However, resistance of the anticyclone over the lows, may weakon next weekend with another low pressure system returning, unfortunately.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[NZstorm]

Yes, looks like the models are throwing in yet another cut off low next weekend for north Tasman/northern NZ. Bit far out though.

[Willoughby]

SSTs are warmer 'than normal' in most of the Tasman, especially off the SE Aus Coast... will certainly mean very mild conditions once the westerlies increase... and they're quite welcome after all the southeasterlies!

[Michael]

RWood will be jumping up and down for joy while writing in the sunshine

[RWood]

I hope so! There's the small matter of today to clear out first - cold southerly with bright patches and a couple of showers so far.
I think the holiday weather I experienced was about the best I've ever encountered (for any time of 3 weeks or more, anyway). I can recall a long spell of delightful clear weather in Central Otago in Jan. 1959. It was very warm, but never humid or sultry - can remember being a little surprised that one day peaked at 97.0F (there was a faint breeze on the hill slopes behind Alexandra). There was a heavy downpour and brief thunderstorm I think, late in the month.

[Michael]

Weather improved a lot this afternoon and quite mild but dont know about tomorrow though

[Manukau heads obs]

quite mild

not here
has not gone much over 11oC today with the cold southerly wind blowing

[NZstorm]

Turned sunny but stayed cold. Max was 12C. Possibly the coldest day of the winter so far.

[03Stormchaser]

17th day in a row with out getting to double figures! Hopefully a change is in store soon!

[Manukau heads obs]

we have had a couple of colder days, one less than 11oC max:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... taout.html" target="_blank

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Should be warmer with this coming week, Brian

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Manukau heads obs]

Looks like Parts of Auckland city would have had a frost this morning, going by Ricky's temperature reading this morning

[Gary McConnochie]

Warming up nicely here.

8.3 degrees and rising. Has a very spring like feel to the day.

Starting to like this change in weather patern.

[Razor]

Sundays Metvuw prognosis, while being a wee way out, looks like the best chance for the Canterbury skifields to get a top up!

Worth watching and might well deserve its own thread in a few days if that comes through, big fat low parked out by the Chatams firing S/SE gales onto the eastern Mainland for a few days. Hmmm!

Also looking dangerous for the upper north to have another drenching

What are the other models saying about this?

[gllitz]

Sundays Metvuw prognosis, while being a wee way out, looks like the best chance for the Canterbury skifields to get a top up!

Worth watching and might well deserve its own thread in a few days if that comes through, big fat low parked out by the Chatams firing S/SE gales onto the eastern Mainland for a few days. Hmmm!

Also looking dangerous for the upper north to have another drenching

What are the other models saying about this?

GFSx model shows something similar, but as stated in a previous thread, maybe we should hold off on making a new thread on this one til we are within 96 hours of the event?

Whilst promising, lesson_learned_from_MANY_previous_events=="Models change TOO much that far out"

[Razor]

From Metwervice SWO: "On Saturday, a low may develop east of Canterbury with a cold southeast flow directed over the southern South Island capable of producing heavy rain and possibly heavy snow to low levels in eastern areas of Canterbury, Otago and Southland. At this stage, there is considerable uncertainty as to the location of the low centre and it may well end up a lot further to the south, removing the danger of severe weather for these areas. "

We shall watch and see.

[gopolks]

Well it will be great if it happens, I will wait till Thursday until I think about it. In the meantime I will enjoy the North Westries mid week with temps in the mid or late teens!

[spwill]

With MetService weather forecasts what is snow to low levels?.

[gopolks]

Sundays Metvuw prognosis, while being a wee way out, looks like the best chance for the Canterbury skifields to get a top up!

Worth watching and might well deserve its own thread in a few days if that comes through, big fat low parked out by the Chatams firing S/SE gales onto the eastern Mainland for a few days. Hmmm!

Also looking dangerous for the upper north to have another drenching

What are the other models saying about this?

Its changed all already as expected, but since chch is expecting a week of North Westeries, we normally get some real bad weather following a north west pattern in winter.

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=144" target="_blank

[gopolks]

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... heroutlook" target="_blank

[gllitz]

It's already a fizzer...for the SI, anyway..."Nothing to see here for the SI, folks...Move along, move along................."

I for one, welcome the upcoming warming trend for the SI...will be a good break from what we have had.

(NI may get some unwelcome blech, tho...but still way too early to tell..."GO the 72-hour rule!!" )

[gopolks]

How can you tell, its already a fizzer? surly it cant of changed that much?

[Storm Struck]

Yes I agree to just keep it quiet for the moment as we have seen over the past few weeks of what has panned out and dissapointed.
But with mild temps and a W-NW flow during winter heading up to this possible event then perhaps it could be worth while watching out for, even though there are other reasons.
I see GFS is going for a low to cross the NI on Sunday, Monday and deepen but also there looks to be an infleunce of a colder change in the south island of S-SE with cooler air which could be a great mix depending on which way the low heads.
Cheers
Jason.

[NZstorm]

Yes, but atleast with the forthcoming situation there looks like there will be low pressure over the South Island.

[gopolks]

Sunday models for what its worth.

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=132" target="_blank

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=138" target="_blank

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=144" target="_blank

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=150" target="_blank