Depression Sunday 29th July onwards

[Razor]

I think this looming system deserves a new thread. Metvuw appears to be getting in line with the Metservice now, significant poor weather looking more and more likely for the upper north of the North Island and the eastern side of the South.

The question is could this bring advective snow conditions?

In the meantime the early spring continues in ChCh, it was warmer here yesterday than it was in Rarotonga!

[gopolks]

CHCH is going to be 18 today.

[spwill]

Question

could this bring advective snow conditions?

Answer

In the meantime the early spring continues in ChCh, it was warmer here yesterday than it was in Rarotonga

!

Would need the cold air to the south to feed in , Mt Hutt could get a good fall.

Auckland dewpoints are currently 12C so good moisture already for this incomming system.

[gllitz]

The question is could this bring advective snow conditions?

I can't see it happening....just WAY too warm...

Of course, that's what a lot of people were saying on June 11th, 2006 as well....

(...but I still don't see it happening...just LOTS of rain...I sure hope the local councils, gov't officials, etc. have been paying attention to the forecasting....)

[gopolks]

All snow warnings/ snow forcasts have been dropped by the metservice , its now heavy warm rain for most of the country.

[Gary Roberts]

All snow warnings/ snow forcasts have been dropped by the metservice , its now heavy warm rain for most of the country.

Gasp!

[gopolks]

hehehehe, thats a shock, it still going to be quite nice temp wise, while the rain is falling, so Im guessing thew wind will be NE and not SE like some are predicting.

[tich]

Now looks like (according to MetService) that much of the SI rain will be from South Canterbury southwards. Chch might get some heavy stuff on Sunday night, but should just have showers from Monday. That's if the low moves where it's forecast to. No mention of snow in latest long-range, but still could easily fall on the high country, just probably not to low levels.

[NZstorm]

Looks to be some thunderstorm potential in the north with this front due to advection of low level moisture.

Just as a side comment, currently scattered T/cu and showers around Auckland due to afternoon convection!

[gopolks]

Temp is now past 20 in chch.

20.2°C Warmer 1.4°C than last hour.
Heat Index 25.1°C
Wind Chill 20.2°C

Humidity: 39 %
Dewpoint: 5.8°C
Wind Speed: Calm Wind fromNNE
Gust Speed: 1.9 km/h
Gust Last Hour: 4.8 kmh NNE
Barometer: 1012.4 hPaFalling 1.40 hPa/hour.
Today's Rain: 0.0 mm
Days with no rain: 5 days
Sunshine Today: 03:49
Time of Last Lightning: 14:13:22 2007/07/27
Last strike recorded: 270 KM @ 264°

[Razor]

Temp is now past 20 in chch.

20.2°C Warmer 1.4°C than last hour.

For the 3rd day in a row by my counting. This will be skewing the figures for what was till last week looking like a cool to cold month

[gllitz]

The Low has started to form off the coast of Brisbane...looks to be starting to have a wee bit of rotation already.

[gopolks]

The Low has started to form off the coast of Brisbane...looks to be starting to have a wee bit of rotation already.

Will this change the predictions?

[jrj]

Looking like, dare I say it, bomb material

[Gary Roberts]

Looking like, dare I say it, bomb material

I had a bomb once. It coughed and spluttered and usually failed to start in the mornings. The damn thing used to leave oil and brake fluid stains on the driveway and little piles of rust wherever it lurched. Then it just gave up the ghost and died by the road side. After that it probably faded from view amongst the weeds until some council contractor hauled it away to be crushed.

Pretty sure the same will happen with this coming "bomb". There'll be a goodly amount of fizzing along with it too. Unless you live up north in which case you can expect lots more rain and high humidity levels. As usual.

[gllitz]

Will this change the predictions?

Uhm, why WOULD it?
It's forming where it's been predicted to....it's the path of the storm and its intensification which matters....

[gopolks]

Oh, I thought it was a change.

[mikestormchaser]

Nah we wont get any snow out of this depression either gopolks, pack your snow boots away untill next time

Beaut day here in Christchurch little wind again, and warm temps.
Like John says spring will be interesting they way its going down here to

[gopolks]

Nah we wont get any snow out of this depression either gopolks, pack your snow boots away untill next time

Beaut day here in Christchurch little wind again, and warm temps.
Like John says spring will be interesting they way its going down here to

Do'h

But yeah its been warm today, early 20's I would say.

Hopefully we will have a nice hot summer!

I still think we will get one winter blast at least.

[TonyT]

Close to bomb status - 0Z LAPS has the central pressure at 1002 midday Saturday down to 985 midday Sunday. Should look good on the sattelite images.

[mikestormchaser]

Do'h

But yeah its been warm today, early 20's I would say.



Hopefully we will have a nice hot summer!

I still think we will get one winter blast at least.[/quote]

but again i hope i would be wrong as you know so if im wrong ill be happier then what i would be if im right

If this was too come on Sunday let say and there was a cold front lining up that collided with this depression it would give a huge amount of snow wouldn't it? even though im talking fantasy stuff right now.

[gopolks]

Man roo]ll on summer, just out with a mate, having a couple of drinks, tstill nice and warm, its like a summers day out there, its got that end of summer feel to it.

[Storm Struck]

Yes another warm day today much enjoyed by many I would imagine except for the skiers.
We are getting closer now to this event and at this stage some good heavy rain overnight Sunday and into early Monday could be likly along with Easterly gales.
Not sure about snow as these lows tend to surprise us sometimes, but even looking at Wednesday as that second low crosses to 983hp going by MSLP could be some strong winds again with another few surprises in the mix under a colder S-SW flow.
Yes perhaps a warm one this summer with an eventful late November-early January storm season roll on the thunder days especailly if the seas stay warm.
Cheers
Jason.

[Michael]

Been a lose lose anticyclone though now foggy 10°

[gopolks]

What's the latest for CHCH?

I see some sites are saying my predictions now, just light rain.

I guess the North Island is going to be hit bad though.