Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by NZstorm »

I can't be believe its been warmer than average in the South Island though!

Here in Auckland July was mild but August so far has felt colder and typically wet.
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

NZstorm wrote:I can't be believe its been warmer than average in the South Island though!
We had more days with lowish temps than last year, but very few days as cold as last year's average, and none anywhere near last year's low. 2006 was marked by a short period of relatively intense cold, but overall not very cold at all over the entire the season. The previous three-to-five years lacked the sharp lows and the prolonged cool periods but had similar (longish) runs of cool-to-cold temps.

Please excuse the highly scientific language. I can supply aspirin for that migraine if you'd like.

It has been interesting to see the locals swayed towards grudginly accepting the GCC hypothesis. Scepticism has melted away along with the snow. They cannot deny that the winters aren't as harsh as they used to be and are becoming even less so with each passing year. Normally around now there' usually some deep snow left on the mountains but it's barely up to my ankles on high summits and barely dusting below.

2007 is the first year when there was no settled snow at all on the tops until late June/early July. Usually there's some by late May. There was always knee deep snow by mid-to-late June and waist-deep by July. But this year the small amounts up top are already disappearing and there's next to nothing on the lower slopes.

Previous years were in line with that. There was little snow up top until June 12th, then the snow which fell in that month's event was mostly gone by late July and virtually nothing fell to replenish it.

Same with the two-to-three years before that to a major extent. Without deep, long-lasting snow on the ground, the temps were higher. This is the second year in a row when none of the elderly residents left to avoid the cold of winter. In 2005 a few did only to find they wasted their time. I suspect we'll be seeing the elderly from Dunedin moving here for winter eventually! :lol:
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes, so far august has been 1.1oC warmer than normal for me here:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... taout.html
(NZStorm, maybe the fact its been so damp and windy at times its felt colder?)
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Lawrence »

I always equate weather a month is warmer or colder by the amount of $ spent on keeping warm, or not :lol: :lol:
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by southernthrash »

Gary Roberts wrote: We had more days with lowish temps than last year, but very few days as cold as last year's average, and none anywhere near last year's low. 2006 was marked by a short period of relatively intense cold, but overall not very cold at all over the entire the season. The previous three-to-five years lacked the sharp lows and the prolonged cool periods but had similar (longish) runs of cool-to-cold temps.

Please excuse the highly scientific language. I can supply aspirin for that migraine if you'd like.

It has been interesting to see the locals swayed towards grudginly accepting the GCC hypothesis. Scepticism has melted away along with the snow. They cannot deny that the winters aren't as harsh as they used to be and are becoming even less so with each passing year. Normally around now there' usually some deep snow left on the mountains but it's barely up to my ankles on high summits and barely dusting below.

2007 is the first year when there was no settled snow at all on the tops until late June/early July. Usually there's some by late May. There was always knee deep snow by mid-to-late June and waist-deep by July. But this year the small amounts up top are already disappearing and there's next to nothing on the lower slopes.

Previous years were in line with that. There was little snow up top until June 12th, then the snow which fell in that month's event was mostly gone by late July and virtually nothing fell to replenish it.

Same with the two-to-three years before that to a major extent. Without deep, long-lasting snow on the ground, the temps were higher. This is the second year in a row when none of the elderly residents left to avoid the cold of winter. In 2005 a few did only to find they wasted their time. I suspect we'll be seeing the elderly from Dunedin moving here for winter eventually! :lol:

Re the snow, same thing was happening in British Columbia till last winter, the thaw from which caused severe flooding.

While there is a lack of snow in canterbury, and apparently at your insistance the mackenzie as well, this still isn't true for the whole country, much how you seem to like to make it sound like it is.

I would be interested to see comparitive stats for wind in the high country going back as far as records, 'cause it does seem like often times lately the big storms have been accompanied/followed by strong winds, which at altitude depletes the snowpack more and faster than warm temps. Surely anyone who spends a lot of time in the mountains will know that? Look at Sierra Nevada!
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

southernthrash wrote:While there is a lack of snow in canterbury, and apparently at your insistance the mackenzie as well, this still isn't true for the whole country...
I never mentioned the rest of the country. I stated that there is almost no snow here in the Mackenzie, where I live and work and I've been told by many that there was little snow on the more southern skifields.
...much how you seem to like to make it sound like it is.
I report the weather conditions I see around me. I cannot help it if you don't like the information in my reports. Do you own a ski-related business? Is that why you are so desperate to make everybody believe that the every NZ skifield is drowning in snow all the time? Do you really think that convincing yourself and others that there is plenty of snow will make it true? Or are you just hoping others will believe you and pour money into the skiing industry? Seriously, why? It's a mystery.
I would be interested to see comparitive stats for wind in the high country going back as far as records, 'cause it does seem like often times lately the big storms have been accompanied/followed by strong winds, which at altitude depletes the snowpack more and faster than warm temps.
We seldom get snow from storms here, or at least the types of storm with wind. Usually it's the result of cold, moist and stable airmasses. We did have strong westerlies up until late May/mid June, then they died away. What little snow we got came after that. Recently we've had some southerlies which brought rain and then even more recently the warm spring NWer has kicked in.
Surely anyone who spends a lot of time in the mountains will know that? Look at Sierra Nevada!
I live an work in and amongst the mountains, so why would I want to look at a North American mountain range? I have plenty of nice ones here I can view whenever I feel like it.
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

:lol: :lol:
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Excellent! Yeah, Gary, somebody's got a snow fetish!
:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by southernthrash »

That's fine, you just imply that you know these things as first hand facts. Any second hand info you are repeating about southern skifields is either from people who have only been to cardrona, or are completely unfamiliar with typical snow conditions in the southern alps. And no I am no way affiliated with any ski area, as far as I'm concerned the less people that go the better :twisted:

I've noticed you like to point out that NZ doesn't get that much snow, and by and large, ie in places where people are going to notice it, and where 99% of our skifields are, we don't. But there are plenty of places that do. Infact plenty of places below 1000m get regular significant snowfalls, but because it's nothing out of the ordinary, and the places where this occurs aren't hugely populated, and are also devoid of skifields, you won't hear about it.

Moist stable airmasses? hmmm. Oxymoron? Certainly not overly common in NZ. It is pretty widely recognised that apart from orographic effects on the west coast, pretty much all our precip in the south island is frontal. I also know (having spent a lot of time rowing in Twizel) that the McKenzie gets mighty windy around those parts at all times of the year. I also know that the difference in snow cover between the main divide and the mountains on the eastern side of the McKenzie is often huge.

for now I'll just go into detail on your last point, Sierra Nevada recieves a lot of snowfall, but they also recieve very warm temperatures throughout the winter season. Despite this, the snow lasts a long time, often skiable till may/june. Why? From what I have been able to find out it is principally due to the lack of wind. Warm temperatures plus overnight freezing lead to snowpacks consolidating rather well, sometimes too well, the reasons for such banter as "Sierra Cement" or more locally, "Concrete Peak". Unfortunately wind is also experienced a coronet.
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Andy »

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

raining here with a 1029hpa barometer!
a convergence line over us...
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Andy »

Manukau heads observer wrote:raining here with a 1029hpa barometer!
a convergence line over us...
Blue dome here and 1036mb :D Frost tonight
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by C-Nimbus »

yes i saw that weak convection today too and it felt quite summery.

Also the system in the tazzie that is poised to pounce thurs/fri is spewing out a heap of high cloud and pre-frontal stuff that is visible from west auckland.
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

southernthrash wrote:That's fine, you just imply that you know these things as first hand facts. Any second hand info you are repeating about southern skifields is either from people who have only been to cardrona, or are completely unfamiliar with typical snow conditions in the southern alps. And no I am no way affiliated with any ski area, as far as I'm concerned the less people that go the better :twisted:
As I stated in every single one of my posts, the info I had regarding the southern skifields was via other people. I never claimed to have been to those fields this year. When skiers bitch that the skifields "have no snow" and "are just rock", I see no reason to assume they are incorrect or not telling the truth. But maybe they were, who knows?
I've noticed you like to point out that NZ doesn't get that much snow...
"Like" has nothing to do with it. Compared with places like North America, northern Europe and Japan, New Zealand does get little snow. But even without the comparison, we don't get much snow. It's fatuous to suggest that we do because, say, a site just below the Mount Cook summit does.
...and by and large, ie in places where people are going to notice it, and where 99% of our skifields are, we don't. But there are plenty of places that do. Infact plenty of places below 1000m get regular significant snowfalls, but because it's nothing out of the ordinary, and the places where this occurs aren't hugely populated, and are also devoid of skifields, you won't hear about it.
Yep, fatuous. And disengenuous.
Moist stable airmasses? hmmm. Oxymoron?
The airmass which dumps snow in the Mackenzie are cold, moist and seem pretty stable, in that they don't fall apart and litter my backyard. You suggest we get snow from storms with high wind and I've rarely witnessed that. On almost every occasion that we've received snow, either at ground level or on the tops, it's been very still.
Certainly not overly common in NZ.
Put it to RWood or TonyT...if they agree then I'll accept it. Personally I think you are the one judging the entire country's conditions by those you experience locally.
It is pretty widely recognised that apart from orographic effects on the west coast, pretty much all our precip in the south island is frontal.
Dunno. Again, put it to people who know what they're talking about. Having said that, every child knows that the West Coast cops a lot of orographic rain, the Alps get snow (although not much these past few years), while the Mackenzie and south Canterbury gets the warm, dry Föhn wind as a result. Your point is what?
I also know (having spent a lot of time rowing in Twizel) that the McKenzie gets mighty windy around those parts at all times of the year.
Really? I wondered what all that moving air was.
I also know that the difference in snow cover between the main divide and the mountains on the eastern side of the McKenzie is often huge.
Sometimes the difference is huge. Not recently though. One thing to remember is that from a distance snow cover usually always looks thick...it's only when you get up-close-and-personal with it that you discover there's not much of it there at all. Right now, even from a distance, the leanness can be discerned very clearly.
...for now I'll just go into detail on your last point...
Why? What on Earth does that have to do with anything? Today I've driven to the Lindis Pass to service a repeater up the Ahuriri Valley, then to Mount Cook to check the Rose Ridge weather station (1,900 metres) and then up to Lake Tekapo and Burkes Pass for other work. I can tell you from being right here that the conditions currently in no way resemble those of that North American mountain range.

This isn't a site for skiers. It's a site for weather enthusiasts. Some of the members of this forum also happen to be skiers and have expressed a desire for snow, but the difference between them and yourself is that they aren't making unsupportable claims, erroneously bolstered by descriptions of conditions of sites which have no relevance.

Recently New Zealand has not received a great deal of snow. Some skifields are struggling as a result. One has closed, others have yet to open and those which are must create artificial snow. That's a fact. It neither pleases nor displeases me (although I've already plainly and openly admitted that I enjoy the discomfort of skiers). I have not said that New Zealand will never again get a lot of snow. For all I know the next ten years may prove to be the snowiest in NZ history. But there's no point distorting reality to make yourself feel better, or con others into spending money on snowboards and lesson.

:twisted: :roll:
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by southernthrash »

Gary Roberts wrote: As I stated in every single one of my posts, the info I had regarding the southern skifields was via other people. I never claimed to have been to those fields this year. When skiers bitch that the skifields "have no snow" and "are just rock", I see no reason to assume they are incorrect or not telling the truth. But maybe they were, who knows?
so why present something as fact, which you have seemed rather intent on doing, be it your intention or not, when you can't verify it?
"Like" has nothing to do with it. Compared with places like North America, northern Europe and Japan, New Zealand does get little snow. But even without the comparison, we don't get much snow. It's fatuous to suggest that we do because, say, a site just below the Mount Cook summit does.
That may be true in some places, but there is huge spatial variability in NZ. While only our high nevees recieve snowfalls rivalling (and occasionally in excess of) places like mt baker and alyeska (reportedly the worlds two snowiest places), there are many parts of NZ that recieve snowfalls comparable to many of the places you mention. But you also can't judge snow just on how much falls... temp, water content, wind and other factors all affect the consolodation of the snowpack and it's longevity. Have you driven the Milford Road in August?
Yep, fatuous. And disengenuous.
That's clever, rubbish an argument you can't counter.
The airmass which dumps snow in the Mackenzie are cold, moist and seem pretty stable, in that they don't fall apart and litter my backyard. You suggest we get snow from storms with high wind and I've rarely witnessed that. On almost every occasion that we've received snow, either at ground level or on the tops, it's been very still.
Pretty much any airmass which is going to deliver any significant amount of snow has to be unstable by definition, or there would be no snow to fall. There may not be strong winds as it snows, but they often follow it. Surely if you spend all this time in the mountains you will notice the effects of wind redistribution on the snowpack? I'm not sure about the eastern McKenzie, but certainly the avalanche reports suggest this is a common phenomena in the west.
Put it to RWood or TonyT...if they agree then I'll accept it. Personally I think you are the one judging the entire country's conditions by those you experience locally.
Perhaps I should throw out my NZ Climate text book?
Dunno. Again, put it to people who know what they're talking about. Having said that, every child knows that the West Coast cops a lot of orographic rain, the Alps get snow (although not much these past few years), while the Mackenzie and south Canterbury gets the warm, dry Föhn wind as a result. Your point is what?
Definately throwing it out now. My point was that significant snowfalls more or less can't come from a stable airmass. Much like fronts.
Really? I wondered what all that moving air was.
So you do get wind now?
Sometimes the difference is huge. Not recently though. One thing to remember is that from a distance snow cover usually always looks thick...it's only when you get up-close-and-personal with it that you discover there's not much of it there at all. Right now, even from a distance, the leanness can be discerned very clearly.
mmmmm all the photo's I've seen from ohau certainly support your argument :roll:
Why? What on Earth does that have to do with anything? Today I've driven to the Lindis Pass to service a repeater up the Ahuriri Valley, then to Mount Cook to check the Rose Ridge weather station (1,900 metres) and then up to Lake Tekapo and Burkes Pass for other work. I can tell you from being right here that the conditions currently in no way resemble those of that North American mountain range.
good reason for that too. I was contrasting, not comparing.
This isn't a site for skiers. It's a site for weather enthusiasts. Some of the members of this forum also happen to be skiers and have expressed a desire for snow, but the difference between them and yourself is that they aren't making unsupportable claims, erroneously bolstered by descriptions of conditions of sites which have no relevance.

Recently New Zealand has not received a great deal of snow. Some skifields are struggling as a result. One has closed, others have yet to open and those which are must create artificial snow. That's a fact. It neither pleases nor displeases me (although I've already plainly and openly admitted that I enjoy the discomfort of skiers). I have not said that New Zealand will never again get a lot of snow. For all I know the next ten years may prove to be the snowiest in NZ history. But there's no point distorting reality to make yourself feel better, or con others into spending money on snowboards and lesson.

:twisted: :roll:
I am a weather enthusiast, trust me. You are the one making unsupportable claims. No skifield has "closed" for the season this year, Temple Basin isn't opening, not solely due to the lack of snow, one of their tows is also seriously damaged, and the club has had financial troubles from previous seasons. The other areas that have had a fairly mediocre season so far are all within the same small region, the Craigieburn range, which by all accounts has copped some unwintery weather thus far. Having said that, if you go here http://www.brokenriver.co.nz/coppermine ... p?album=15 you can see current photos of the conditions up there, I wouldn't be complaining about that!

The fields that are open are certainly benefitted by artificial snow, as they are in any season (even last year), but the role of snowmakers is mainly to ensure that the season can start more or less on time, and that the base lasts well into spring. The seasons enjoyed in recent years, are, by all accounts, significantly longer than those of years gone by. I have a LOT of data and stats back in Invercargill which I could post up when I'm down there next.

Infact, most of the skifields are doing very well this year, with all the southern lakes fields having record visitor numbers over the last few weeks.
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Razor »

Well I flew over the mountains this morning and I can confirm theres plenty of snow, down to the valley floors and some signficant looking avalanche paths that look rather recent.

So while its been a warm winter and some skifields are struggling, there is still plenty of snow about
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by tich »

I heard on the news that there's a severe avalanche risk for back country alpine areas near Queenstown and Wanaka. You need quite alot of snow for that.
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by TonyT »

Its not the quantity of snow which makes for a severe avalanche risk, its the snow pack structure. If you get a hard layer, which has melted and refrozen several times it forms a surface which the new snow cant bond to - so the new snow is at risk of sliding off the top of the hard layer, which is what starts the avalanche. Its the weather conditions in the week or two prior to the snowfall which set up the snow pack to take on this structure - often caused by rain on the snow surface.
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

"The 2007 season has been quite different from usual winters here in NZ. Shallow conditions as a result of little natural snow and prolonged fine, cold weather have created a very weak substrata. This deep instability combined with recent snowfall and extremely strong winds has created the potential for a fatal avalanche accident." - Steve Schreiber, Avalanche Programme Manager for the Mountain Safety Council, 15-08-07.
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Razor »

As a keen tramper I know avalanches and I understand them well. The point is that there are areas in the alps that have had plenty of snow this year, much for than the fields. I suspect much of it has fallen from the NW or easterly quarter rain spells
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by RWood »

To veer back to a major point of contention - I think it is quite hard to get an objective assessment of the success or otherwise of the skifelds, at least until after the season's over. Until that point the information is probably biased overall, or at least confusing. The hype on TV1's Friday evening pre-weather spot certainly seems to be - the merry chitchat doesn't even match the weather forecast symbols at the bottom of the pictures.
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

Razor wrote:Well I flew over the mountains this morning and I can confirm theres plenty of snow, down to the valley floors and some signficant looking avalanche paths that look rather recent.

So while its been a warm winter and some skifields are struggling, there is still plenty of snow about
The problem Razor is that, as I mentioned earlier, snow usually appears thick from a distance. Once you get closer you can see it isn't.

Compared with, say, five or more years ago, there's very little snow about the mountains.

The Mt Cook DoC guys will also tell you that the main Alpine mass has been very bony for the past few years, and particularly so this year.

The reason for the avalanches is because some recent snow has collected on a thin and unstable icy layer: a thin layer of snow on top of another thin layer of snow being hit by some warm wind.
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

RWood wrote:To veer back to a major point of contention - I think it is quite hard to get an objective assessment of the success or otherwise of the skifelds, at least until after the season's over. Until that point the information is probably biased overall, or at least confusing. The hype on TV1's Friday evening pre-weather spot certainly seems to be - the merry chitchat doesn't even match the weather forecast symbols at the bottom of the pictures.
I made a comment that it appears the skifields are having yet another poor season. I hadn't expected anybody to take offense.

You have skifield operators and other ski-biz folk with a vested interest in convincing people that the skiing is good.

Then you have some skiers willing to indulge in wishful thinking and bashing of those who aren't.

Me? I never said that I was posting my opinions from the skifields. My words were based upon what I can see for myself and comments from skiers here at work and those passing through the Mackenzie or posting to snow and ski report forums.

TV stations are full of skiers, as well as being more than happy to support any who offer them sweetheart deals. (Refer to any of the four hundred house-auction and fixer-upper shows made by TV prodcos for the benefit of the REINZ.)

Whether it's exaggerating your town's temperatures or the amount of snow on the mountains, it's silly. :roll: :lol:
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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by jrj »

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Re: Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

Unread post by southernthrash »

RWood wrote:To veer back to a major point of contention - I think it is quite hard to get an objective assessment of the success or otherwise of the skifelds, at least until after the season's over. Until that point the information is probably biased overall, or at least confusing. The hype on TV1's Friday evening pre-weather spot certainly seems to be - the merry chitchat doesn't even match the weather forecast symbols at the bottom of the pictures.
Agree with you there.

Just out of interest, there was a massive avalanche at craigieburn club field in canterbury yesterday.

Gary, bony is a word generally used to describe the nature of the snow, rather than the amount.

And it is a lot easier to judge snow cover and quantity from the air than from the valleys below, though still not easy. Unless you've got binoculars, then it's a cinch.
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