How long winter will go

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Tue 21/08/2007 14:08

From my last post and Still thinking about spring I found some interesting information about budburst.
At the Finnish Forest Research Institute they examined the effects of several daylight and temperature regimes imposed during the winter-spring period on the timing of bud burst in rooted cuttings of Norway spruce grown in a greenhouse. The treatments were initiated in November and December after the cuttings had been exposed to natural chilling and freezing events. Irrespective of the treatments applied,they found the time to bud burst decreased with increased duration of previous exposure to natural chilling and freezing events. Fluctuating day/night temperatures and continuous lengthening of daylight hastened bud burst. Shortening daylight delayed bud burst, suggesting that little or no ontogenetic development toward bud burst takes place during mild periods before the winter solstice. In the case of climatic warming, this phenomenon may prevent the premature onset of growth that has been predicted by computer simulations with models that only consider temperature regulation of bud burst.

sw_windbow · Unread post by **sw_windbow** » Tue 21/08/2007 15:16

It was undoubtedly Spring this morning. I noticed sun on a tree outside that never gets sun in the winter. Birds were very chirpy. The sun had claws.

This afternoon is undoubtedly Winter. The air is chilled and moving briskily, the rain is cold, and its darkish outside.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 21/08/2007 18:46

Natives don't mind being planted in Winter infact it's the best time for planting them then, because the soil is always moist or damp especially in the evenings and mornings. Also the day time temperature is average and not too warm which may dry up soils quicker.
I have just planted a batch of native seeds 2 weeks ago, it's important to do so now so that when spring comes around the germination will be right on target almost, and I can take note of which plant germinates first during spring.

Yes much lighter in the mornings now, I have taken a stand in putting on my headlights now going to work at 7am as it's light enough the street lights are off and i can see in front of me

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Small majority on the roads agree with me but a vast number are still stuck in the habit early days huh

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Cheers
Jason.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 21/08/2007 19:24

Magnificent weather here again today. T-shirts all round. I'm predicting rain tonight, if anything, which will rinse away the last of the lingering snow and ice on the tops.

southernthrash wrote:...gary if we guaged seasons subjectively based on temperature winter would almost never occur on Coronet Peak

Try this word: "relative."

Strangely enough, in winter it is much colder on mountaintops than it is in the other seasons. Right now on Coronet Peak and other NZ summits it is much warmer than it would be were it winter. So by those (realistic) standards, it is no longer winter on Coronet Peak, or any other NZ mountain, just as it is no longer winter at lower elevations in NZ.

And now that winter and the interesting weather is behind us, I'm going back into message board hibernation.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Tue 21/08/2007 19:30

I'm sure the winter effects my mood in and some of my friends moods as well,some times I can get down right grouchy

But when summers here and I'm on my deck with a glass of your excellent N.Z. wine... boy am I happy.....Ahhhhhhhh,happy days.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Tue 21/08/2007 19:43

Gary Roberts wrote: I'm going back into message board hibernation.

They do say Bears are a little grumpy when they come out of hibernation

just joking Gary

,speaking of which Gary,you have just reminded me about hibernation,surly some animals might have a better idea when spring has arrived, like sheep for instance or anything that hibernates. Any one with any thoughts on this.

southernthrash · Unread post by **southernthrash** » Wed 22/08/2007 10:07

Gary Roberts wrote:Magnificent weather here again today. T-shirts all round. I'm predicting rain tonight, if anything, which will rinse away the last of the lingering snow and ice on the tops.

southernthrash wrote:...gary if we guaged seasons subjectively based on temperature winter would almost never occur on Coronet Peak
Try this word: "relative."

Strangely enough, in winter it is much colder on mountaintops than it is in the other seasons. Right now on Coronet Peak and other NZ summits it is much warmer than it would be were it winter. So by those (realistic) standards, it is no longer winter on Coronet Peak, or any other NZ mountain, just as it is no longer winter at lower elevations in NZ.

And now that winter and the interesting weather is behind us, I'm going back into message board hibernation.

Once again you have no idea what you are talking about. Seasons are not defined by temperature.

And Michael, in response to your question, it depends whether you want to take the Astronomical view, that spring begins on the spring equinox, the date of which I don't have at hand right now. Or the meteorological view that spring begins on the first of September, at which point many new-born lambs will be killed by "unseasonal" snow.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Wed 22/08/2007 10:45

southernthrash wrote:
And Michael, in response to your question, it depends whether you want to take the Astronomical view, that spring begins on the spring equinox, the date of which I don't have at hand right now. Or the meteorological view that spring begins on the first of September, at which point many new-born lambs will be killed by "unseasonal" snow.

23rd September 09:51 UTC

Dont know why they dont use that date for day light saving and then end it on the 20th March 2008,always seemed logical to me and it keeps every one happy.I think we should push the government on it and be world leaders in finally sorting out day light saving.Even in the Northern Hemisphere every one moans and bitches about its length and weather we should have it or not.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 22/08/2007 11:43

Meteorological seasons in mid-latitude zones are defined by temperature, at least in that that the conventional DJF-MAM-JJA-SON division recognises the warmest and coldest calendar 3-month periods.

A more interesting notion is one I saw in a USA Today Weather Almanac a few years back. For a place that has records of mean temperature for each day of the year(**), winter is the block of days that contains the coldest 25% of average temps., and summer the block that contains the warmest 25% of average temps. Spring and autumn then cover 50% of the average temps.

Here's an example they gave for San Francisco, which has a rather unusual regime where the warmest month is delayed to September (but only 20 or 30km inland things are different): all values in F, not C!

Winter Nov 26 - Feb 27 52F - 48 - 52 (94 days)
Spring Feb 28 - May 31 53F - 59 (93 days)
Summer June 1 - Oct 22 60F - 64 - 60 (144 days)
Autumn Oct 23 - Nov 25 59 - 53 (34 days)

(**) NIWA probably don't have ready-made tables of averages on a daily basis, but for some major centres at least they probbaly have a lot of daily data from which they could be calculated.

southernthrash · Unread post by **southernthrash** » Wed 22/08/2007 11:47

RWood wrote:Meteorological seasons in mid-latitude zones are defined by temperature, at least in that that the conventional DJF-MAM-JJA-SON division recognises the warmest and coldest calendar 3-month periods.

Which is why June, July and August constitute our winter months.

A more interesting notion is one I saw in a USA Today Weather Almanac a few years back. For a place that has records of mean temperature for each day of the year(**), winter is the block of days that contains the coldest 25% of average temps., and summer the block that contains the warmest 25% of average temps. Spring and autumn then cover 50% of the average temps.

Here's an example they gave for San Francisco, which has a rather unusual regime where the warmest month is delayed to September (but only 20 or 30km inland things are different): all values in F, not C!

Winter Nov 26 - Feb 27 52F - 48 - 52 (94 days)
Spring Feb 28 - May 31 53F - 59 (93 days)
Summer June 1 - Oct 22 60F - 64 - 60 (144 days)
Autumn Oct 23 - Nov 25 59 - 53 (34 days)

(**) NIWA probably don't have ready-made tables of averages on a daily basis, but for some major centres at least they probbaly have a lot of daily data from which they could be calculated.

It would be quite interesting to see this done for a variety of different NZ locations, could make for a very interesting cliamtic study.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 22/08/2007 19:38

I downloaded daily max/min for Kelburn for a very long period of years and managed to sort and average them in Excel (rather laborious). Using the above definitions I go this:

Spring 13 Sep - 10 Dec (89 days)
Summer 11 Dec - 28 Mar (108 days)
Autumn 29 Mar - 28 May (61 days)
Winter 29 May - 12 Sep (107 days)

So only 150 days of a year are spent in the middle range, on average.

southernthrash · Unread post by **southernthrash** » Thu 23/08/2007 13:06

I might look at doing the same for a few different places over the weekend.

TokWW · Unread post by **TokWW** » Thu 23/08/2007 16:09

Thanks Rupert - the interesting difference is the length of Spring vs Autumn = 89 vs 61days, when the sun lifts and the days lengthen, there must abe a lot of water in the soil to evaporate keeping ground temps lower for a while as we head into summer, whereas at the end o summer, the ground has a drought and less moisture buffer and resistance to change in temps so the change is faster and Autumn is shorter. Am I right? An outsider/newbie learning the basics of micro and macro climate changes.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 23/08/2007 17:36

That looks sensible to me TokWW - for places less influenced by the sea I would expect the summer and winter periods to start and end earlier than for maritime places like Wellington, but still to be longer than Spring and Autumn, with Autumn the shortest in all cases.

But there might be a surprise or two in there...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 23/08/2007 20:00

the ground has a drought and less moisture buffer and resistance to change in temps so the change is faster and Autumn is shorter

I think the general weather pattern is what controls when seasons end and finish each year, eg more northerlies= warmer.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 23/08/2007 20:06

Yes, spwill but I'm talking about the average over many years, not individual years.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 23/08/2007 21:09

We tend to get more cooler SouthWesterlies each spring and sometimes warmer NE in Autumn as a result of the weather still being active in the Tropics.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 24/08/2007 06:47

Hate these mornings clear overnight overcast with loads of condensation 5Â° tmin

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 24/08/2007 09:05

A run of sunny days here that should last till Sunday or part of Monday. Very cool till Wedensday, y'day and today particularly feel quite a bit milder. I'd be interested to know the MTD sunhine from today's Herald (that would be to Wed 22nd).

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 24/08/2007 10:53

were mtd 115.2 wn 108.7 chch 107.2 dunedin blank tauranga highest of these 121.5 and nu 111.9,gs 104.6

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 24/08/2007 11:07

Thanks - fairly closely bunched. As y'day, today sunny here and several more expected W'gton should once again be significantly ahead of the longterm Aug. average (12 of the last 14 have been above that average).

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