Spring like pattern for the next 4-5days!!!

[Storm Struck]

Looks like a rather spring like pattern over the next 4-5days atleast with the much appreciated mild NWer's briefly turning SW inbehind.
I see MS have a moderate risk for thunder down south tomorrow morning then a low risk over North Canterbury in the afternoon and a moderate risk over Kaikoura-Wellington.
Interesting, I wouldn't rule it out as the more changes we get like this into the spring months the more the chances shall be .
Also I wasn't expecting to see any shower activity today of which there most likly was over the Peninnsula with some nice forms of CU and even an afternoon CB popped up towards the E-SE. Rain radars do show the odd slightly heavy shower clipping the Penninsula.
Latly It certainly feels like spring, its getting lighter in the mornings, the temperatures are milder, and the blossoming trees seem to agree as well . Thats apart from the early morning frosts.
Cheers
Jason.

[tich]

Looks like a rather spring like pattern over the next 4-5days atleast with the much appreciated mild NWer's briefly turning SW inbehind.

Yes, for the next 5 days. But models suggest a significant cold southerly change about next Tuesday. Some are predicting a low pressure system to complicate things further.

[David]

Despite the days still getting to 15-16C, soil temperatures have increased a lot since mid-winter, around 10C in July up to 14-15C last couple of days. SW winds been keeping daytime temps from getting above 16. Nights are not as cold as they would have been in mid winter under similar conditions.
Soil temps probably risen because of the sun's increasing altitude in the sky heating the ground more strongly
No doubt amongst the spring temps there is usually a southerly blast which brings snow to low levels over the South Island and then its back to cold

[NZstorm]

Certainly felt like spring today with a gusty SW and stratocumulus. Hopefully not too much of that this spring. Find it hard to believe the soil temps have risen this month, there hasn't been much sun lately.

[spwill]

The SouthWesterlies dont bring much of a drop in temp, 15-16C is right on average for Auckland.
Ave max for Aug is 15.4C, Sep 16.8 C.

[Michael]

ECMWF shows a stationary high just to the NW of Cape Reianga for another week whilst GFS shows a fairly variable SW NW W pattern.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

ECMWF shows a stationary high just to the NW of Cape Reianga for another week whilst GFS shows a fairly variable SW NW W pattern.

So does this means more gales from the SW?

JohnGaul
NZTS

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, for the next 5 days. But models suggest a significant cold southerly change about next Tuesday. Some are predicting a low pressure system to complicate things further.

That scenario/system should be weak, unfortunatley but an interesting low may develop in the Tasman Sea and move south later next week
No thunder tho', sadly they tend to overforcast that nowdays.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

No thunder tho', sadly they tend to overforcast that nowdays.

If we got thunder in Auckland every time a moderate risk or high risk was forecast then I'd say we'd have about twice as much as we actually get!

[planez]

wednesday looks good for a SE snow maker in canty, metvuw showing a big system

[Paul Mallinson]

Be Aware that thunderstorms don't always occur where you are. The area depicted is a threat area only and doesn't mean it will happen everywhere. If the threat is rated high, more often than not something occurs in or near the area.

Paul

[planez]

[David]

Be Aware that thunderstorms don't always occur where you are. The area depicted is a threat area only and doesn't mean it will happen everywhere. If the threat is rated high, more often than not something occurs in or near the area.

Yes that is true but there have been numerous occasions when there has been no activity throughout the whole threat area. Overall I would say metservice does do a decent job forecasting thunderstorms, which must be very hard - if one variable changes or another factor develops the whole situation changes ,so I give them credit for the times they do forecast accurately


Southwest really picking up, some gusts to 65km/h here and 72km/h at Eastern Beach station

[tich]

wednesday looks good for a SE snow maker in canty, metvuw showing a big system

Blue Skies is going for a big system according to their latest long-range - they must've been using GASP (or GFS, I can't remember which); that scenario shows a deep low affecting NZ. Other models aren't so extreme, but a cold change is coming.
Tomorrow looks like a mild end to winter here in Chch though.

[gllitz]

wednesday looks good for a SE snow maker in canty, metvuw showing a big system

Blue Skies is going for a big system according to their latest long-range - they must've been using GASP (or GFS, I can't remember which); that scenario shows a deep low affecting NZ. Other models aren't so extreme, but a cold change is coming.
Tomorrow looks like a mild end to winter here in Chch though.

Tomorrow?? TODAY more like it! 16C and climbing...it is quite warm out in the sunshine...just came back from a pleasant walk at lunchtime!

[tich]

Just looked outside, and it's pretty dark to the southwest.

[tich]

And a Trademe forum poster reported seeing thunder and forked lightning from south Chch.

[gllitz]

And a Trademe forum poster reported seeing thunder and forked lightning from south Chch.

Uhm, yes...we have just had our spring like weather ruined by a decent hail-fall....

[tich]

Some briefly heavy rain in central Chch, but no hail nor thunder/lightning that I noticed.

[gllitz]

Some briefly heavy rain in central Chch, but no hail nor thunder/lightning that I noticed.

Uhhmmm...we had wee little ice bits bouncing off the parking lot and people's cars

You are in central city, tich? I am over in Addington during the day, so a bit further west than you?

[Andrew Massie]

Yeah, funny great big drops and very dark clouds at the moment.. Gonna pop up onto the roof for a look. Lightning tracker showed one bolt NW of Chch recently. It does have that "wierd weather" feeling at the mo that preludes thunder...

Feelin' it in mah waters!

[Gary McConnochie]

Had a couple of rumbles here in Rolleston about half an hour ago.

Got very black out to the east but seemed disappear as quick as it came.

[spwill]

Yes, there was a brief Thunderstorm just to the SW of Christchurch, looks a crop of developing showers moved up from the SW into on shore winds, first of the Spring

Looking like a big High will move in next week, a weak southerly followed by a NE flow.

[gllitz]

By the looks of the radar, TonyT and folks in Amberley are about to get a good dumping....Tony?

[03Stormchaser]

Went out for a drive, hard call it a chase did leave the city! Had hail probly 10mm (max) in size around the addington/Riccarton area, in Papanui were I live, not a drop!