Cold outbreak, first week of September

[gllitz]

This does not look very spring-like.... (still about 96-120 hours away, so we'll see...)

TUES_WED_BRRR.png

[gopolks]

This does not look very spring-like.... (still about 96-120 hours away, so we'll see...)

TUES_WED_BRRR.png

hehehehehehehe, we will see.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Surface barometer a bit high so nothing much really even though the oncoming anticyclone is up around the 1040hPa mark.
Could be a '1030hPa Scenario' though here in canterbury?????

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Storm Struck]

I think if models hold it together the way they keep improving for this system then it could be quite significant.
Definatly much more in favour than apposed to 1030 scenario.
Not going to jump into this yet though however with some rather welcome totals of rain and very low level snow maybe we are not quite into spring just yet. ( even though we could be saying that for months on end like last year ).
Cheers
Jason.

[tich]

According to GFS and GASP, thickness levels are predicted to be low enough that snow should fall to sea-level not only in east of South Island, but possibly even the south of the North Island. MetService seems to be more conservative than Blue Skies about this upcoming event, with snow to only 500 in the south.

[David]

See how cold 500hpa temps forecast to be, around -32C! Would could this mean???
Some instability?



Image seems to be unavailable at times

[mikestormchaser]

Not going to jump into this yet though
Cheers
Jason.

you just did jump into it

[Willoughby]

Good spotting, and yes, WOW! That 00z GFS run shows -35C pushing -37C @ 500mb over the central North Island!
Yeah, it's a little while away.. but nice to see a strong upper-trough on the cards again.

Looks like GASP is up to tricks again... ...519dm over Invercargill? Surely not, surely!

Image seems to be unavailable at times

Weatherzone don't allow 'hotlinking'.

But here it is for justice.

[David]

Foggy, how do I upload an image from the internet so it is an attachment?

[TokWW]

David - some sites allow an image to be "borrowed" once or twice then they block any further downloads to a particular site - like this forum's server - and all you see is an alarm or false image. Often it is due to copyrighting their images or their professional resources to those who are registered and have a license to view - like a subscription to a magazine - so all you can do is to copy the image to your own website and absorb the extra dead weight in volume storage, and link with img statement or you save to your own PC, make it smaller if necessary due to the forum's limits 100kB per image I think, and then upload onto the forum's pages as a permanent image there as Foggy has done.

HTH
Graeme

[melja]

I see that blue skies are going for a more south canterbury event now

[Inny Binny]

I'm new here, and only fifteen...but I've been reading through this forum for a while now.

I wouldn't give up hope on the snow for the rest of Canterbury yet.

"Canterbury High Country Snow Forecast

Issued 10:47 AM Saturday 1 September 2007

By Blue Skies Weather & Climate Services Ltd

Situation

A strong northwesterly airflow is increasing over New Zealand today ahead of a cold front. This front will move over the country tonight and tomorrow with a brief period fine southwesterlies. The airflow should tend back to the northwest on Monday, ahead of another cold front due on Tuesday. A very cold southerly airflow will spread over New Zealand on Tuesday night and Wednesday as a large anticyclone moves across the Tasman Sea, the anticyclone covering the country from Thursday.

Snow Forecast for Canterbury High Country :

A cold outbreak will spread a south to southeasterly airflow over Canterbury during Tuesday, becoming coldest from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon.

A period of rain on Tuesday will see snow levels lowering during the day, with falls of 10-15cm likely above 500m. Falls may be heavier in South Canterbury with 20-30cm possible above 500m.

From Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening snow showers are likely to sea level. Showers may be heavy in South Canterbury on Tuesday and at first on Wednesday then easing. Expect accumulations of 3-5cm to sea level, 10-20cm above 200m, and a further 10-20cm above 500m.

In Mid and North Canterbury expect accumulations of 1-3cm to sea level, 5-10cm above 200m, and a further 5-10cm above 500m.

Showers should clear late on Wednesday, leaving heavy frosts on Thursday and Friday."

This system is looking very interesting...

[southernthrash]

Typical spring time snowfall, happens areound lambing time every year! Gary will be gutted.

[Storm Struck]

Welcome to the forum inny binny great to see another cantab weather enthusiast.
The snow will possibly lower to sea level by Tuesday night by which time they will be showers so yes acummulations at or near sea level will be minimal.
However if it stays cold enough over the duration of this outbreak there shouldnt be too much snow melt and of course provided the showers are quite scatterd to prolonged.
I have a watch out on my website at the moment but I havnt put out any accumulations as I thought it is best to wait until closer to the time to get a better idea, but feel free to have a look.
I hope the models keep up as every model run just gets better .
Cheers
Jason.

[David]

Taranaki has high risk of thunderstorms this evening and tonight, possible gusts to 110km/h and a low risk of tornadoes with the passage of the front.
Unfortunately the front is meant to quickly weaken and only bring a few showers here

Yes welcome to the forum I thought I was the youngest on here 16 turning 17 two months

[Inny Binny]

Mm, I always seem to be the youngest on forums like these.

I would say that Christchurch, at the moment, might get a maximum of about what we got last year (3 - 4 cm?), but we'll see closer to the time.

[southernthrash]

At this time of the year, accumulation is going to be affected by increased ground temp too, this has been really noticeable around queenstown over the last few days.

[kiwisk8er]

Do you think there might be any snow for Dunedin?

I know I'm wishing ...

[Inny Binny]

I would have said that Dunedin has had their fair share of snow...it's now our turn.

[David]

What about up here where we NEVER get snow, or even sleet?
The closest I've been to snow was on Y12 Tongariro National Park trip in May, and there was a patch of snow on the summit of Ruapehu.
Never got close though
At least we get thunderstorms

[Inny Binny]

Well apart from the occasional snow and occasional storm, weather here is very mundane...

Metservice seem to be turning over a bit more towards Blue Skies' view as well.

[gopolks]

Yep the forcast for chch for tuesday and wednesday is a high of 15 and a high of 11. The low for both days is 5.

Down south canterbury way though it will be a lot colder.

[mikestormchaser]

Fantastic day here in Chch today, nice and warm and when finishing work at midday i can get out and enjoy it! yeha come on let it snow, haven't had a decent snow fall this year yet in cantab.
And NO kiwi sk8ter its not going to snow in dunners, u guys have had your fair share down there and the rest!

[Inny Binny]

Exactly. It will only snow in Canterbury.

I'm sure that the forcasted tempertaure doesn't matter that much...for example Invercargill's temperature is supposed to be 11 and 3, and they're supposed to get sleet.

[David]

Metservice mentions the possibility of heavy snow in Canterbury in the severe weather outlook page.