Northern depression 8th-10th Sept

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Northern depression 8th-10th Sept

Unread post by David »

Just looking ahead...
Models are forecasting a depression of tropical origin to move down over northern NZ next Saturday/Sunday, with heavy rain and gales predicted at this stage by some models.
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/20070902 ... 18-144.gif shows the depression forecast 144hrs from now.
Probably a bit early for your opinions on what will happen, we'll see what the models predict later in the week.
Image
ricky
Posts: 1054
Joined: Sun 28/09/2003 21:27
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 488 times
Been thanked: 40 times
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by ricky »

ECMWF Is beginning to agree with this development now, so looking more likely
Image
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by David »

Some models showing crossing of this deepening low now on tuesday 11th (forecast central pressure <990hPa)
Image
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

latest ecmwf run has the low missing us.....going to slip past to our NE....hummmm...that might change still
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by David »

Many models still favouring the low crossing the north island sunday/monday...possibly bringing heavy rain and strong winds to upper
north island :)
Image
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looking like Sunday will be dank day in Auckland with a warm frontal rain coming in.
Monday looks a lot milder and if the dewpoints are up enough a thunderstorm could be on the cards. Heres hoping.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by David »

Metservice now have a good confidence of heavy rain reaching warning criteria in Northland and a low confidence of easterlies gusting to severe gale force over parts of the NI
Image
tich
Posts: 3467
Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by tich »

According to MetService, Canterbury should get some rain on monday, but only abit of drizzle predicted by Blue Skies. I guess it all depends on how far south the low goes.
squid
Posts: 1304
Joined: Thu 16/06/2005 13:57
Location: Caboolture,QLD
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by squid »

the low has now formed and is expected to rapidly deepen as it moves towards northern NZ it looks like the NI in particular is in for a hammering so i would battern down the hatches and keep your boats handy
check out our online shop

www.delicatedelights.com.au
User avatar
Lawrence
Posts: 958
Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
Has thanked: 169 times
Been thanked: 68 times

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by Lawrence »

Yeah,certainly looks like top of the North in for some more wet stuff from Coromandel to Ruatoria and also Te Urewera area,don't think it will be anything too bad although it could be slightly windy around Orewa.Mean while in Otago and the southern alps it looks like they will get a top up of the white stuff,does not seem to warm up in the south till Tuesday :(
Last edited by Lawrence on Fri 07/09/2007 10:48, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Lawrence
Posts: 958
Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
Has thanked: 169 times
Been thanked: 68 times

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by Lawrence »

{WATCH Event 2007/1.196}
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND COROMANDEL PENINSULA BAY OF PLENTY AND GISBORNE ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1014hrs 07-Sep-2007

HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS REACH NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SPREAD TO COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY AND GISBORNE ON SUNDAY.

A low now developing near New Caledonia is expected to move southeast towards Northland on Saturday and move onto the upper North Island on Sunday. A strong moist northeast flow should spread onto Northland late on Saturday and then spread southwards over most of the North Island on Sunday.
For Northland, a period of heavy rain with strong or gale northeasterlies is expected Saturday night through into Sunday morning. During Sunday strong winds and rain should spread to Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne with the potential for some heavy falls.
At this stage there is considerable uncertainty whether rainfalls will reach warning criteria. However, people in these areas engaged in weather sensitive activities should prepare for a period of heavy rain. Forecasters will continue to monitor developments and these watches may be updated to warnings if warranted.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9am Saturday Forecast prepared by: Oliver Druce
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by David »

I suppose with metservice's current expectations of this system they will issue heavy rain warnings for Northland and Coromandel tonight or tomorrow. Moderate amounts and maybe few heavy falls look likely to affect Auckland, but nothing too significant. Looks like easterly winds are also expected to gust to gale force at times as well.
Image
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looking like the warm front will go through Sunday afternoon. Weather should stay cold and overcast in Auckland untill then with lots of rain Sunday. Still looks to be a chance of afternoon convection over the Waikato/Auckland Monday afternoon if the southerly can hold off.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by David »

Metservice's future SW pacific MSL prognosis maps show the centre of the low to be over the upper North Island around midday Monday, with central pressure just under 992hPa
Image
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

We have just had 2 days of clear 'blue-dome' skies. :)
This depression means depressing weather for us. :( Total 8/8 cloud cover with cold overcast dull days. Winds from the South, (this meaning anything from the west or east) and the occasional drizzle or light to steady rain. :cry:
How depressioning can one get :?:


JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-9th Sept?

Unread post by Michael »

Its better than 8/8 and SW for weeks on end,this year we havent had that but it must be soon ready to start :?
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:We have just had 2 days of clear 'blue-dome' skies. :)
This depression means depressing weather for us. :( Total 8/8 cloud cover with cold overcast dull days. Winds from the South, (this meaning anything from the west or east) and the occasional drizzle or light to steady rain. :cry:
How depressioning can one get :?:


JohnGaul
NZTS
squid
Posts: 1304
Joined: Thu 16/06/2005 13:57
Location: Caboolture,QLD
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-10th Sept

Unread post by squid »

it is still looking like the NI is gonna get a bit of a thrashing from this system in the form of heavy rains and gales in exposed areas I would expect a heavy rain warning to be issued today for Northland and probably the corromandal aswell and a severe wind warning for exposed places i reckon the depression will pass at a pressure of around the 990 mark.
check out our online shop

www.delicatedelights.com.au
User avatar
Lawrence
Posts: 958
Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
Has thanked: 169 times
Been thanked: 68 times

Re: Northern depression 8th-10th Sept

Unread post by Lawrence »

squid wrote:it is still looking like the NI is gonna get a bit of a thrashing from this system in the form of heavy rains and gales in exposed areas I would expect a heavy rain warning to be issued today for Northland and probably the corromandal aswell and a severe wind warning for exposed places i reckon the depression will pass at a pressure of around the 990 mark.
Yeah, your right there mate,looking quite nasty from Kerikeri right down to Whangamata,strongest winds looking like going through the Coromandel up to Whangarei.Glad I'm not up there on Sunday :(
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-10th Sept

Unread post by David »

Heavy rain warning issued for Northland:

BURST OF HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTHLAND
A low moving out of the subtropics towards northern New Zealand will spread a band of rain over Northland overnight and during Sunday
morning. Rain is likely to become heavy after about midnight tonight in areas north of Whangarei with 50 to 80mm possible in some eastern areas with strong onshore easterly winds.
Although this is not a particularly large rainfall much of the rain is likely to fall in a 6 hour period after about 3am. People in these areas are advised to watch for rapidly rising streams and possible surface flooding.
In areas south of Whangarei lesser amounts of rain are expected with 30 to 50mm possible about some of the eastern hill country from dawn
to early afternoon.


50 - 80mm doesn't seem like much, I was expecting a bit more to fall over Northland :-k
Image
User avatar
Willoughby
Site Admin
Posts: 4433
Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city
Has thanked: 264 times
Been thanked: 288 times
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-10th Sept

Unread post by Willoughby »

According to the 00z LAPS run, it stalls the low over the NI on Monday afternoon while the other major models have the low clearing to the east with cooler southerlies...

High risk of thunderstorms over the Far North tomorrow behind the warm front.
David wrote: 50 - 80mm doesn't seem like much, I was expecting a bit more to fall over Northland :-k
The system was "cut off" from large amounts of tropical moisture rather early relative to our location, most of the unstable/very moist flow is currently ending up to the northeast of Gisborne under the northerly.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-10th Sept

Unread post by David »

The rain radar shows most of the rain moving down to be drizzle! And only some areas of proper rain, seems hard to expect up to 80mm to fall over parts of Northland.
Image
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Northern depression 8th-10th Sept

Unread post by David »

Foggy wrote: High risk of thunderstorms over the Far North tomorrow behind the warm front.
But Metservice say there is no risk of thunderstorms anywhere today or tomorrow?
Image
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Northern depression 8th-10th Sept

Unread post by NZstorm »

Now looks like that low will definitely move to our east directing a stable southerly across our region tomorrow.
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2711
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 355 times
Been thanked: 607 times

Re: Northern depression 8th-10th Sept

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

mmm I got up this morning to see to the South some CU and dark skies, just the S NE affect i think, but sure reminds of me of something ;) bring it awwn
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
User avatar
Lawrence
Posts: 958
Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
Has thanked: 169 times
Been thanked: 68 times

Re: Northern depression 8th-10th Sept

Unread post by Lawrence »

Nice example of shadow over Christchurch caused by the Banks http://satellite.landcareresearch.co.nz ... d09097.jpg 8)
Locked