Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 15/09/2007 14:44

Incoming sub-tropic low/out going high set to direct a wet northeast to east flow over the North Island. Looks like high SFC temps around 21C could generate some thunderstorms during the odd day too.

Up to 21.7C here in the city today,

, small Cu about.. very strange and warm for this time of year indeed.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 15/09/2007 15:31

Dewpoints certainly look like they will go up.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 16/09/2007 06:52

Absolutely pouring down right now

Puddles everywhere, 5mm in 10mins

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Sun 16/09/2007 09:11

6mm overnight here in Grey Lynn,
I see GFS is suggesting some instability with the remains of the western front approaching, certainly good dew points over 15Â°C here now! Keeps changing it's mind about the rest of the week though

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 16/09/2007 10:03

Moderate risk of thunderstorms in Waikato this afternoon according to metservice.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 16/09/2007 11:24

Looks to be some colder upper air on the way for mid to late week with that low. Heres hoping.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 16/09/2007 11:28

NZstorm wrote:Looks to be some colder upper air on the way for mid to late week with that low. Heres hoping.

I hope so too, as far as I can recall there hasn't been a decent upper pool of cold air and instability recently, much was in July but little in August.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 16/09/2007 21:45

thought i saw a weak funnel cloud out of the cloud base just south of the airport this sarvo......there was a shallow layer of uninstability and lots of moisture and we got to 20oC here behind that shower line...so....

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Mon 17/09/2007 07:23

Did see some great looking TCu through occasional breaks in cloud so there was some good strong convection going on in places with that instability

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 17/09/2007 07:28

Looks to be another warm day again

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 17/09/2007 08:48

Dewpoints 13C here with some Mist and Fog.
Our mid week Low looks like it might take a more northerly track.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 17/09/2007 09:22

That low mid week will be unstable given a moderately cool upper air and good moisture advection into it. Looks like top of Northland will get globbered with possible heavy convective falls.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 17/09/2007 10:20

NZstorm wrote:That low mid week will be unstable given a moderately cool upper air and good moisture advection into it. Looks like top of Northland will get globbered with possible heavy convective falls.

Not sure if "globbered" was a typo or not, but I must say I like it! I might use that in a forecast one day - "isolated globerry falls" has a Hickey-esque sound to it!

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 17/09/2007 17:04

Weatherzone models predict a cold upper change on the 23rd, with 500mb temps forecast at <-28C at the moment. Could be good to have an unstable atmosphere after the rainfalls expected later this week which should supply some surface moisture.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 18/09/2007 20:32

19C felt warm here today with the 14C dewpoints

. I see our dewpoints have dropped now.

The Low out to the NW looks active with a lot of Thunderstorm activity, shame it will be moving north of Auckland.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 18/09/2007 21:45

Yes, quite a thundery looking system out there in the north Tassie but it is moving in the wrong direction!

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 19/09/2007 07:16

Looks like this system is going to be another non-event for Auckland, we were originally expected to have rain with heavy falls and now only a couple of showers?

Typical!

Some lightning showing up on the Ak storm tracker to the NW of the far north at the moment

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 19/09/2007 15:38

Looks like a feisty rain band approaching Northland. The way it is currently moving, by looking at the radar loop one could deduce that the band would affect Auckland? Not forecast to so maybe it will swerve away or weaken?

edit 5.15
I see some storm activity up north now

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 21/09/2007 07:16

Whangarei has received 50mm from this event while down in Auckland we get 0.8

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 21/09/2007 07:34

David wrote:Whangarei has received 50mm from this event while down in Auckland we get 0.8

It doesn't take much of an easterly up there to promise a good soaking.

Great start to the day here, mostly sunny and 11C

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 21/09/2007 07:41

Foggy wrote:It doesn't take much of an easterly up there to promise a good soaking.

Apparently Whangarei has an annual total approaching 1400mm already due to all of the heavy rain events there this year. And I suspect some of the areas slightly inland of Northland along the eastern hills there would have totals this year of 1600mm if not more
Whereas Akl airport has under 700mm for the year and I have 940mm here in the east.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 22/09/2007 11:09

So much for the period of rain forecast for this morning, not a sign there is any rain around in the skies right now

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sat 22/09/2007 13:14

yes it is quite stange that the rain hasn't arrived at all yet. It really feels like Summer today

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 22/09/2007 13:37

On the humid side today 14C dewpoints, 19C.Cloudy, some small towering Cu around.

Monday should be a good day for heavy shower/ thunder risk.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 22/09/2007 14:12

Some build ups popping up around Auckland right now, a good one puffing up into the sky to my southeast with bubbly looking top and a grey baseline.

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Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

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Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep

Re: Moist and unstable over the North, 15th - 22nd Sep