NZ Weather Forum

Looks like it is going to be fine here in Canterbury for ever, well for the coming week
Never seen such an elongated spell of fine, settled weather, forecasted, especially for September?
How awful for us weather enthusiasts
I hope the forecasters are wrong

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:I hope the forecasters are wrong

Isn't it dreadful when it doesn't rain and everything dries up?

On another note, yes it does seem no rain will fall in the Canterbury area within the next week. Hoping that the rain with heavy falls forecast at this stage for Thursday will actually eventuate, unlike the last dud system which sprinkled out a miserable 2mm here.

At least it will be fine down there, up here recently most rainless days have been quite cloudy with the odd exception.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Looks like it is going to be fine here in Canterbury for ever, well for the coming week
Never seen such an elongated spell of fine, settled weather, forecasted, especially for September?
How awful for us weather enthusiasts
I hope the forecasters are wrong

JohnGaul
NZTS

You've had plenty of dry Septembers in the past - here's a few of the driest ones in fairly recent times (ChCh Gardens readings):

2006 7mm
2001 12mm
1997 11mm
1988 6mm

RWood wrote:You've had plenty of dry Septembers in the past - here's a few of the driest ones in fairly recent times (ChCh Gardens readings):

2006 7mm
2001 12mm
1997 11mm
1988 6mm

And I call a monthly total of 50mm dry...

We will get a big thunderstorm with rain enough to make up a whole month lol

tornadoman18 wrote:We will get a big thunderstorm with rain enough to make up a whole month

Fond memories...haven't had a really big thunderstorm here for quite a while (2 years?) Must be due for one sometime...

I see ECMWF wants to bring back winter next week.

Too long range to be very reliable though.

Yeah, noticed that today also spwill ,thay are not the only models predicting a cool phase at the end of the week Dare we think the possibility of snow

Should be a good chance for thunderstorms if it agree's up until the crunch .
In the meantime days like today are much appreciated with blue dome skies and 17C, perhaps a different story in the next few days with some anticyclonic morning and night low cloud or fog.
Bit of heat convective CU went up inland over the plains today a happy reminder .
Cheers
Jason.

Karshvardidgâh wrote:Yeah, noticed that today also spwill ,thay are not the only models predicting a cool phase at the end of the week Dare we think the possibility of snow

SUN1.jpg

forget about snow, always in my opinion and esp this winter thats been and gone people are bringing up these events when they have so far to go, and when its crunch time, BANG! nothing happens!
And then people have been disappointed, its happened time and time again during the winter months.
I would agree with Jase on it, that most of the time you see some cold change coming Thunderstorms will be more the reality now and is on the cards.

cheers

RWood wrote: You've had plenty of dry Septembers in the past - here's a few of the driest ones in fairly recent times (ChCh Gardens readings):

2006 7mm
2001 12mm
1997 11mm
1988 6mm

You are right there, Rupert, just looking back through my weather diaries
Nothing much either in rainfalls totals, well some 100mm totals but nothing substantial.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Some good CAPE values for Wednesday,looking like their going to have a good time top of the North,quite a interesting end to the week with the lows, will be quite interesting to see what happens. Get your Cameras on charge folks

Karshvardidgâh wrote:Some good CAPE values for Wednesday,looking like their going to have a good time top of the North

And LI values look a bit promising...

Karshvardidgâh wrote:Get your Cameras on charge folks

And isn't it great I'll be on holidays and so will actually be here to watch and monitor any interesting weather

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Looks like it is going to be fine here in Canterbury for ever, well for the coming week
Never seen such an elongated spell of fine, settled weather, forecasted, especially for September?
How awful for us weather enthusiasts
I hope the forecasters are wrong

JohnGaul
NZTS

Well since I started this thread, it has been mostly cloudy and drizzly on the odd ocaasion, nothing really sunny and fine for the week as origionally forecasted.
What I origionally meant the weather being terrible, I was refering to the lask of active cold fronts, whatever, to make the weather interesting for spring, when it could be more exciting, rather than stagnant systems moving over the country

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Looks like it is going to be fine here in Canterbury for ever, well for the coming week
Never seen such an elongated spell of fine, settled weather, forecasted, especially for September?
How awful for us weather enthusiasts
I hope the forecasters are wrong

JohnGaul
NZTS

Well since I started this thread, it has been mostly cloudy and drizzly on the odd ocaasion, nothing really sunny and fine for the week as origionally forecasted.
What I origionally meant the weather being terrible, I was refering to the lask of active cold fronts, whatever, to make the weather interesting for spring, when it could be more exciting, rather than stagnant systems moving over the country

JohnGaul
NZTS

You just live in the wrong place, John - most days have been sunny for 4-6 hours here in Amberley!

Prove it TonyT - measure it!

RWood wrote:Prove it TonyT - measure it!

Dont need to, I just enjoy it!

Seriously, though, these last few days have been good examples of how Banks Peninsula funnels the NE flow onto the coast from about Waikuku Beach southwards to Christchurch, keep the city and surrounds mostly cloudy, yet elsewhere in Canterbury the low cloud breaks in the middle of the day with appreciable sunshine.

Nice day here,light ESE and 19°

TonyT wrote:

RWood wrote:Prove it TonyT - measure it!

Dont need to, I just enjoy it!

Seriously, though, these last few days have been good examples of how Banks Peninsula funnels the NE flow onto the coast from about Waikuku Beach southwards to Christchurch, keep the city and surrounds mostly cloudy, yet elsewhere in Canterbury the low cloud breaks in the middle of the day with appreciable sunshine.

Lovely day here with faint breezes.

I've seen plenty of examples of NE/E cloud swamping most if not all of "lowland" Canterbury, at least from Ch'ch south, particularly in the south (eg Timaru, Waimate). Are you referring to a more situation-specific type of northeasterly?

Seriously, though, these last few days have been good examples of how Banks Peninsula funnels the NE flow onto the coast from about Waikuku Beach southwards to Christchurch, keep the city and surrounds mostly cloudy, yet elsewhere in Canterbury the low cloud breaks in the middle of the day with appreciable sunshine.

The peninsula also creates a clearer patch in its lee near Lake Ellesmere during northeasterlies - I've seen it many times. (the cloud cover returns by the time I reach Chch)

tich wrote:
The peninsula also creates a clearer patch in its lee near Lake Ellesmere during northeasterlies - I've seen it many times. (the cloud cover returns by the time I reach Chch)

I refer this to the "NE Kink", Ben and Tony

JohnGaul
NZTS

Looking pretty settled here this morning, despite the forecast for wet weather on the way.
For some reason it seems the birds wouldn't let me sleep in a bit longer this morning, first a kingfisher chirping its head off, and this was followed by about four circling seagulls/mollyhawks trying to make a racket as well.
Oh well it least it is nice outside at the moment.

David wrote:Looking pretty settled here this morning, despite the forecast for wet weather on the way.
For some reason it seems the birds wouldn't let me sleep in a bit longer this morning, first a kingfisher chirping its head off, and this was followed by about four circling seagulls/mollyhawks trying to make a racket as well.
Oh well it least it is nice outside at the moment.

You'll get settled weather up there in Auckland late next week/WE as an anticyclone to the east of the country really ridges in there

JohnGaul
NZTS

The recent cold snap brought our sunshine figures to about average at least