Cold Snap this weekend coming 23 Sept????

[Inny Binny]

Wow that does sound very interesting southernthrash...

...but, for this current event, I think I'll go with the pessimistic view of tornadoman on this one.

[Storm Struck]

NIWA cant make thier minds up just like the rest of the scientists or anyone for that matter.
Although I do believe that what we have and are doing to the planet is having an affect on melting and weather events etc, I also believe a major part is just simply the next age in change for the earth.
After all we were not here first and we choose to live on this planet, now we have to see what happens and wade it out.

Now back on topic, I think this cold event for Tuesday night-Wednesday morning is just another repeat of the last few months perhaps seeing a few light snow showers etc.
However each and every weather situation is different from others and I hope like others that it is more than just a few flakes or snizzle .
Cheers
Jason.

[Inny Binny]

Well it's been a miserable day down here...if we had gotten some steadyish rain I would have been happy enough, but it's been horrible drizzly muck with cold miserable winds and everything...

[tich]

Blue Skies are still forecasting snow to very low (ie near sea-level) levels for Tuesday night; they've only shortened the duration of the event, now predicting the flurries to clear on Wednesday morning.

[Lawrence]

Looking at all the models which have been pretty consistent for the past four runs the only thing that has drastically changed is the amount of moisture for the event on Tuesday. What we need is something to feed it, however the high does seem to be weakening slightly as the low forms in the Tasman Sea which may change the outlook. Still expecting a few flurries on Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning but not certain about how low these might occur, I am tending to think Nelson lakes area /Hanmer might get the best out of it.

[NZstorm]

amount of moisture for the event on Tuesday

I wouldn't look at moisture, air from the subantartic is dry anyway and not a worthy discriminator as to whether it will snow in Canterbury on not.

Still expecting a few flurries on Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning but not certain about how low these might occur,

looks to be to about 500m.

[TonyT]

Looking at all the models which have been pretty consistent for the past four runs the only thing that has drastically changed is the amount of moisture for the event on Tuesday. What we need is something to feed it, however the high does seem to be weakening slightly as the low forms in the Tasman Sea which may change the outlook. Still expecting a few flurries on Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning but not certain about how low these might occur, I am tending to think Nelson lakes area /Hanmer might get the best out of it.

Absolutely correct Karshvardidgâh - the forecast temperatures are certainly remaining cold enough to support snow falling to near sea level, but the issue is more will there be any significant precipitation to fall in the first place, and that is strongly related to how much moisture comes in with the cold surge (in this case looking to be early hours of Wed morning). It certainly doesnt look like a heavy fall for any part of Canterbury (at this time) and in that sense it may be a rather similar event to several others this past winter.

[spwill]

[quote][ but the issue is more will there be any significant precipitation to fall in the first place, and that is strongly related to how much moisture comes in with the cold surge/quote]

I think the bigger factor is the upper air, the long sea track will allow showers to develop in the dry airmass.

[Lawrence]

It's very interesting how this cold surge is affecting and going to affect the North Island in the other post, Unstable over NI 22nd - 27th.Very exciting stuff indeed.

[Storm Struck]

This rain over the last few days has been pitaful here only 4mm in the gauge .
Just drizzly light rain breif showers today with some breif weak CU dark lines as the wind swung from southerly to Easterly with some breif sunshine and 12C at the time .
Could be something thundery along the windchange line tomorrow afternoon, I have been looking into it since last night and the only thing we will possibly lack is that moisture so only a low risk at that.
Obviously the wind is now Easterly and provided there is long sunny intervals tomorrow morning which there should be, and the temperature gets over 12C then something could go up against the cold windshift.
We managed 12C today under overcast skies so shouldnt be hard to get over that tomorrow provided the sunshine before hand.
Just the darn precipitation is lacking, come on Jim your back tonight give us some good luck for being back on air .
Cheers
Jason.

[Inny Binny]

Yeah, come on Jim!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I thought an East/Ne convergenge was starting to develop judging by these cloud shots

Sept the latre 024 (Small).jpg

[mikestormchaser]

I agree low risk thunder to my mind 2mro afternoon aswel.
looked to be abit unstable this afternoon to, Crappy old day in chch again today, dull and overcast, yeah jim hickeys back! saw him tonight and heard a couple of his sayings

[David]

yeah jim hickeys back! saw him tonight and heard a couple of his sayings

I remember the 'come in dunedin'

[Inny Binny]

Ah I think I might have been a bit too young to remember any of his sayings but I did think he did pretty well tonight!

[Lawrence]

I thought an East/Ne convergenge was starting to develop judging by these cloud shots

Great pics there, I noticed a bit of that my self but only got a few glimpses on the way from work but wasn’t sure, couldn’t see it properly as I was driving and things kept getting in the way, plus I was concentrating on driving as well Models still looking reasonable, just waiting for the next lot of data at 20:00 and getting really excited. Great day in the North Island,could'nt see it but everyone did a really good job keeping the reports going, and the pics were great and much appreciated, thanks lads

[Inny Binny]

Where are you getting your data from?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

2 more picks from this afternoon.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Lawrence]

Where are you getting your data from?

Hi Inny Binny.
I get lots of data from all different sites when they update during the day,or during the night, but try and assimulate it when I get home,the next lot of data to be updated is due at 20:00, just in time before I go to bed, from herehttp://www.ogimet.com/tabla_pred.phtml?lang=en

We really need a time table of some sorts with models so we could get the latest info when we know its realeased.

[Inny Binny]

Hey thanks, I'll have to bookmark that.

[Willoughby]

Hi Inny Binny.
I get lots of data from all different sites when they update during the day,or during the night, but try and assimulate it when I get home,the next lot of data to be updated is due at 20:00, just in time before I go to bed, from herehttp://www.ogimet.com/tabla_pred.phtml?lang=en

We really need a time table of some sorts with models so we could get the latest info when we know its realeased.

That's really slow actually; it shouldn't take that long to generate it's maps.

A 00z GFS run would have completed it's full run at around 4.45pm NZST.
Try here: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... index.html

[Razor]

I just had a quiet chuckle walking around on a sunny ChCh day, temps not too bad, almost mild for this time of year. Then came in to read the ChCh Press reminding me of snow to sea level prediction by Blue Skies... I suspect this needs updating!

[TonyT]

I just had a quiet chuckle walking around on a sunny ChCh day, temps not too bad, almost mild for this time of year. Then came in to read the ChCh Press reminding me of snow to sea level prediction by Blue Skies... I suspect this needs updating!

Some people have trouble reading - and since I havent seen what The Press actually wrote, I will assume that it might be the reporter, not you Razor.

All through this event (and all through comments in this thread, as well as Blue Skies' forecasts) it has looked as if the coldest air would arrive overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Since its currently early afternoon on Tuesday I am not surprised it doesnt feel very cold yet. The latest model runs have not changed this.

It has also been apparent for several days now (to readers of this thread, and to users of our forecasts) that there is a question mark over this event as to whether there will be enough moisture to create any snow. This point was made abundantly clear to the Press reporter in my conversation with him yesterday, and I hope it came through in the article. The latest model runs have not changed this issue either.

I see no need to update anything other than some people's reading skills.

[Razor]

Cheers Tony

The Press article in the "in briefs" today talks of cold snap coming and snow to near sealevel for most of Canterbury tomorrow morning. Don't worry- I instantly assumed it was out of date, however most here in the workplace are going "ohhhh its going to snow tomorrow I might not make it to work"

[mikestormchaser]

Quite a nice day really today, but a sign of CU going up at lunch time indicated to me there could of been a storm this afternoon as it got quite mild and with the cold front arriving something could have gone up but i don't think anything is going to be thundery now i wouldn't think