Cold Snap this weekend coming 23 Sept????

[Inny Binny]

Yes, its 192 - 384 hr forecast is completely useless (fluctuates all the time, as expected) but the other ones are very detailed and useful.

Looking great!

[David]

I see from your link:
snow and hail likely to sea level at times
At this point metservice don't expect it to be too cold - maximums of around 12-13C for Christchurch next week.
Things are looking interesting down there now, but I think the risks of anything extraordinary is now out of the question here - metservice continues to only see few showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout different times of next week. What are other people's opinions on this event for the NI? But to stick to topics post in the allocated thread

[TonyT]

Looking great!

[mkII_grande]

Looking great!

Yes indeedy! I can't understand the people saying it's not going to snow because I just know that it will! We skiers want snow, we skiers need snow, so it will snow!

[mikestormchaser]

i know nothing about this cold front, and i say no more about it!

[David]

i know nothing about this cold front, and i say no more about it!

I guess that way its more likely to happen!

500mb thickness levels over Chch now forecast at 517 on wednesday

[TonyT]

And 850Ts are -9, so its cold throughout the profile. Interestingly I am am supposed to be addressing a workshop in Chch about extreme weather events on Wednesday - could be odd if I cant make it because of snow!

[Lawrence]

Wednesday is looking absolutely superb , if the models stay consistant .Tuesday does'nt look too bad as well.I can say with certainty that of all the predictions and fizzers we have had, that this has got to be the best chance of a low level snow event this year. I'm shocked.

Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow.

Nahhhhhhhhhhhhh
Surface barometer predictions have to be about990hPa or lower, to wisk up the cold air and a lower barometer reading of about 1040hPa from a higher latitiude anticyclone, not one that is forecasted to have a central pressure of about 1020 or 1025 hPa.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

Nahhhhhhhhhhhhh
Surface barometer predictions have to be about990hPa or lower, to wisk up the cold air and a lower barometer reading of about 1040hPa from a higher latitiude anticyclone, not one that is forecasted to have a central pressure of about 1020 or 1025 hPa.

Can you enlighten us (or just me?) on why this is so John?

[tich]

Latest GFS looks pretty extreme - sub 520 thickness around Wellington and 524 line up to Waikato and BOP, along with a deep low east of North Island. GASP has a much less substantial cold southerly.
Very cold polar blasts are far from unknown in NZ in late September - I've read about major ones in 1949, 1963, 1977, and 1993. Near the end of Sept 1949, snow apparently fell to low levels as far north as the Waikato and Rotorua.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Can you enlighten us (or just me?) on why this is so John?

From past experience and observations of scenarios like this...

JohnGaul
NZTS

[mikestormchaser]

mmm im thinking thunderstorms for this event? who agrees. would be good! change of seasons and especially if theres some decent heating before the cold air hits.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

mmm im thinking thunderstorms for this event? who agrees. would be good! change of seasons and especially if theres some decent heating before the cold air hits.

sorry to diaaspoint, just layers of cold boring stratus clouds with the occasional drizzle or rain if the cloud is thick enough
Should get to 8ºC tomorrow, if your lucky

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

sorry to diaaspoint, just layers of cold boring stratus clouds with the occasional drizzle or rain if the cloud is thick enough

Typical John!
Always putting the lid on people like tornadoman's hopes
Cantabrians should be allowed to fantasise...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

sorry to diaaspoint, just layers of cold boring stratus clouds with the occasional drizzle or rain if the cloud is thick enough

Typical John!
Always putting the lid on people like tornadoman's hopes
Cantabrians should be allowed to fantasise...

Um......... sorry

JohnGaul
NZTS

[mikestormchaser]

[/quote]


sorry to diaaspoint, just layers of cold boring stratus clouds with the occasional drizzle or rain if the cloud is thick enough
Should get to 8ºC tomorrow, if your lucky

JohnGaul
NZTS[/quote]

no i meant for tuesday/ wensdays event

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

no i meant for tuesday/ wensdays event[/quote]

I don't think much is happening then, the higher latititues anticyclone is scheduled to move NE over the country then with a central pressure of 1025hPa.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

Um......... sorry

Don't worry, it controls the amount of fantasising/dreaming/wishing that goes on in here...

[Dean.]

Not to worry,last time John said the pressures were too high,it snowed in Ashburton for a few hours.
Looking forward to the outcome,got a feeling it will be a biggie.Beats this 29-30 degree day after day heat here in the far north.
Enjoy

Lucky buggas

[Andrew Massie]

Um......... sorry

Don't worry, it controls the amount of fantasising/dreaming/wishing that goes on in here...

Some of us have given up!

[mkII_grande]

What a bunch of old women!!! Why are you even on a weather forum if you think there is never going to be any snow fall? You should all be praying for lots of snow and not moaning about the possibility that it will only drizzle instead!

[David]

Why are you even on a weather forum if you think there is never going to be any snow fall?

It's called facing reality. Only rarely will snow actually settle to sea level from these southerly polar blasts.
And anyway there's heaps more to talk about other than snow.

But...
for all of you wanting snow I hope it happens this time as you all have waited so long and deserve some, to make up for the poor winter down there this year

[Inny Binny]

Nah models look rubbish now...

[NZstorm]

Problem with the forthcoming polar outbreak is that the air doesn't look like its going to be overly unstable. The high builds in quickly, hence snow falls are likely to be light, to about 400 or 500m Tuesday.